Analysis: BTC's volatility is close to its year-to-date low, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility has risen to a new high since March

According to CoinDesk, the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market has significantly increased recently, while Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market remain calm. The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, rose from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, the highest level since March; at that time, the index reached as high as 199.

In contrast, the Volmex 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) is currently around 37, close to the year-to-date low of 35; the Cboe VIX, which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, is near the year-to-date low of 14.

Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond briefly hit 5.2% on Thursday before falling back to 5.163%. Data shows that the correlation coefficient between VIX and MOVE over the past 20 trading days has dropped to -0.06, marking the first negative correlation since April 2024; the correlation coefficient between BVIV and MOVE is -0.37, at a relatively low level in recent years.

Analysts point out that as an important foundation of the global financial and credit system, an increase in U.S. Treasury volatility usually indicates a tightening financial environment, but currently, BTC and the U.S. stock market have not reflected the same level of volatility risk as the bond market.