Goldman Sachs: Korean retail investors are flowing funds into cryptocurrency, and KOSPI's upward movement relies more on foreign investment

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department's South Korea stock analyst Chris Cha stated in a report on September 23 that KOSPI has the conditions for a short-term tactical breakout, but the continuous flow of liquidity from South Korean retail investors into the cryptocurrency market will make the index's subsequent upward movement more reliant on foreign capital and local institutions reconfiguring. The report noted that concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rates have been partially digested by the market, and risk appetite has shifted towards proxy AI themes.

The report pointed out that South Korean memory chips provide fundamental support, with fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices expected to grow double digits quarter-on-quarter, and the ramp-up of HBM4 capacity will continue to limit the supply of standard server DRAM. Samsung Electronics' large shareholder returns, continuous buying by institutions, and foreign capital turning into net buying may drive KOSPI towards the resistance zone of 7000 to 7200 points.

The report also indicated that the capacity of local South Korean retail investors to absorb has weakened. After Bitcoin returned to $85,000, cryptocurrency trading in South Korea has heated up. According to DefiLlama data cited in the report, Upbit's single-day spot trading volume on June 13 was approximately $770 million, which rose to $1.817 billion on September 22, an increase of about 136%. Based on the total trading volume of $3.27 billion on that day across South Korea's five major trading platforms, Upbit alone accounted for over half. Goldman Sachs believes this will make KOSPI more reliant on foreign and institutional buying in the future, and October is a critical window to test whether foreign capital will continue to increase its investment in South Korean semiconductor and AI assets.