Musk: After China masters the technology, its production capacity may exceed the sum of other regions in the world

On October 13, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on social media platform X: Once China masters the manufacturing methods for a certain type of product, its ability to scale production often exceeds that of the rest of the world combined. He cited lithium batteries and solar energy as examples, claiming that China has demonstrated this characteristic in these fields. This statement was in response to a discussion about memory manufacturer Changxin Storage.

The poster Melvin believes that Changxin is already a competitor that cannot be ignored, but whether new technology can stably achieve large-scale mass production still depends on yield, cost, and reliability. He also noted that memory demand is still growing, and an increase in production capacity does not mean that the market will immediately experience oversupply. Regarding memory, Musk mentioned that about three years ago, memory was still a low-margin commodity, with LPDDR5 and LPDDR6 designed according to common standards, and China seems to be rapidly solving related technical issues.

Musk also pointed out that the new generation of high-bandwidth memory architecture is more difficult to tackle. Another challenge is placing a layer of SRAM beneath the logic chip and stacking RAM in three dimensions above it while addressing the heat dissipation issues of the logic chip. Phoenix Technology cited public information stating that on September 7, Changxin Storage announced that LPDDR6 has entered mass production and was first commercially used in the Xiaomi 18 Fold, with a capacity of 16 GB, compliant with JEDEC's LPDDR6 standard. Subsequently, Changxin announced that its fifth-generation DRAM process platform has achieved mass production and launched two LPDDR5X products based on this platform, aimed at smartphones and portable consumer electronics, with a single bare chip capacity increased by 50% compared to the previous generation of similar products.