Analysis: Long-term holders of BTC maintained their positions during the rebound, and the market has not yet entered an overheated phase

Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional jointly released the Q4 2026 "Charting Crypto" report. The report suggests that Bitcoin has transitioned from a bottoming phase to an initial recovery in Q3, with an overall positive outlook for Q4, although caution is still advised in the short term.

The report shows that the net unrealized profit and loss indicator (NUPL) for Bitcoin has returned to the "optimistic/anxious" range, still below the threshold of the "belief/denial" phase. The supply of Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year continues to increase, with long-term holders largely maintaining their positions during the rebound, and the return of new participants has driven a recent rise in active supply. As of the end of September, there is a dense cost area for Bitcoin above the price, which includes the resistance area that previously limited the rise in September, while multiple layers of support are distributed below.