AI trading crash, will Anthropic delay the "super IPO"? The "scheduled listing date" is not far from mid-November

Author: Dong Jing, Wall Street Journal

The AI unicorn Anthropic is standing at the historical threshold of going public, but market headwinds are intensifying uncertainty.

According to Reuters, the developer of the Claude chatbot, Anthropic, plans to complete its IPO by mid-November, with a target valuation of up to $2 trillion, potentially surpassing SpaceX's earlier $1.77 trillion IPO this year, making it one of the largest tech IPOs in history. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires the company to publicly file its prospectus at least 15 days before starting its roadshow, which means that the window period left for Anthropic is rapidly narrowing.

Meanwhile, the AI sector has recently faced significant sell-offs ------ CoreWeave's stock price has plummeted about 30% in two weeks, and Micron has dropped 17% in the past month ------ raising ongoing concerns about the sustainability of AI spending. Several market participants have indicated that Anthropic may face pressure to delay its IPO, but some analysts point out that the company's urgent need for capital may drive it to stick to its original plan. Current market predictions show that the probability of Anthropic going public this year is about 80%.

Time Window: S-1 Filing Must Be Submitted by Next Week at the Latest

According to SEC regulations, companies must publicly file their prospectus (S-1 filing) at least 15 days before starting their roadshow. Jay Ritterh, head of the IPO Research Project at the University of Florida, stated that if Anthropic hopes to complete its IPO before Thanksgiving, there is still ample time, but it is quite tight.

Specifically, if the company aims for the IPO by November 24 at the latest and starts the roadshow on November 16, it must publicly file the S-1 by the end of next week.

It is worth noting that Anthropic was previously expected to publicly disclose its prospectus shortly after Labor Day, when the market anticipated it might go public in late September, but that plan did not proceed as scheduled.

Market Headwinds: AI Sector Under Pressure, IPO Window Narrowing

According to MarketWatch, the recent significant pullback in AI-related stocks is an important variable that Anthropic's management must confront.

Emerging cloud computing company CoreWeave has seen its stock price drop about 30% in the past two weeks due to market concerns about its debt management capabilities; storage chip giant Micron has fallen 17% in the past month, reflecting widespread market worries about the scale of AI spending and financing prospects.

Joe Tigay, portfolio manager at Rational Equity Armor Fund, stated that ongoing inflationary pressures and high energy prices are also concerning.

"Historically, a combination of slowing growth and inflation often precedes cracks in the stock market. If these pressures continue to accumulate, Anthropic has every reason to choose to remain private and wait for a better opportunity."

However, there are also voices suggesting that Anthropic's IPO is crucial for boosting market confidence.

Jim Lebenthal, chief market strategist at Cerity Partners, pointed out that the long-term viability and business models of the AI industry have recently come under more scrutiny, and the market needs a successful Anthropic IPO to prove that AI has the capacity for sustainable development.

"It's reasonable to raise questions, and even to have doubts is reasonable," Lebenthal said, "but the overall health of the stock market and the health of the U.S. economy largely depend on the success of the AI industry."

Capital Needs: Going Public is the Most Realistic Path to Raise Funds

Setting aside market sentiment, Anthropic's own urgent need for capital may be the core driving force behind its insistence on proceeding with its IPO plans.

Andrew Rocco, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, stated that the largest AI companies have indicated that "they are basically willing to invest as much as possible on a large scale to attract more users and try to become dominant players in AI."

He believes that Anthropic will strive to advance its IPO, "because they really need that funding, especially as financing in the private market may become more difficult."

An article from Wall Street Journal stated that, according to a draft of Anthropic's prospectus cited by The Wall Street Journal, the company's spending on AI computing power over the next few years could reach as high as $750 billion. Meanwhile, the prospectus shows that Anthropic recorded a net loss of over $80 billion in the first half of 2026, with revenue of $16.3 billion, although this loss was primarily driven by accounting adjustments rather than a deterioration in core business performance.

Market predictions indicate that the probability of Anthropic completing its IPO this year is about 80%.