The New York Times: The market expects the Federal Reserve to hold steady this week, and Waller must explain the reasons

According to The New York Times, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the FOMC meeting this week (October 27 to 28). Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh needs to explain why he is not raising interest rates while inflationary pressures remain high, while also indicating that the determination to combat inflation has not weakened and keeping the possibility of another rate hike this year.

The report states that the Federal Reserve raised rates once in September, and the market had once priced in another rate hike in October. New York Fed President John Williams, Vice President Jefferson, and Governor Waller expressed at the end of September to early October that they could wait a bit longer, causing the probability of an October rate hike to drop from over 70% to less than 30%. High oil prices and the demand for materials and electricity driven by AI infrastructure increased price pressures in September. The Nasdaq 100 index has fallen more than 7% since its historical high on October 6, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond had previously stood above 5% for several consecutive weeks.

Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, stated that he expects interest rates to remain unchanged this week but believes there may still be another rate hike in December. Walsh needs to explain why he is not taking action in October while also clarifying why December is still under consideration. Since taking office in May, Walsh has provided little forward guidance on the interest rate path. The press conference after the decision to hold rates steady in July caused market volatility due to overly brief wording, and subsequent hawkish remarks in August, along with the rate hike in September and signals of another hike this year, somewhat repaired communication. This week's decision is approaching the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and Trump had previously criticized the rate hike in September.