Nomura: AI trading reversal may impact the dollar's safe-haven status

According to Jinshi Data, as overseas funds continue to flow into U.S. AI-related stocks, corporate bonds, and power infrastructure, the correlation between the U.S. dollar and the U.S. technology investment boom is becoming increasingly tight.

Dominic Bunning, head of foreign exchange strategy at Nomura Securities, stated that if AI trading reverses, it remains uncertain whether the dollar can benefit from safe-haven demand as it did in the past. Analysts point out that if AI investment returns fall short of expectations, it could trigger a sell-off in technology assets, widen corporate credit spreads, and slow down U.S. economic growth, thereby weakening the dollar's yield advantage and inflow support. However, if global demand for dollar financing surges, the dollar may still strengthen due to short-term liquidity needs.