Foreign Exchange

4E: The US stock and cryptocurrency markets are recovering, with a focus this week on the US February PCE price index

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, last week the Federal Reserve's dovish remarks and Trump's statements about flexibility in the reciprocal tariff plan alternately boosted confidence in the U.S. stock market. After significant fluctuations, the three major indices collectively closed higher for the week: the Dow Jones increased by 1.2%, marking the largest weekly gain in over two months; the S&P 500 rose by 0.51%, ending a four-week losing streak; the Nasdaq slightly increased by 0.17%, halting a previous four-week decline. However, large tech stocks generally closed lower for the week, with Nvidia down 3.26%, Tesla down 0.53%, marking its ninth consecutive week of decline.The cryptocurrency market experienced fluctuations but overall showed a mild upward trend. Bitcoin rebounded after dipping near $81,000 on Tuesday, and on Thursday, driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish remarks, it surged above $87,000, reaching a new high in half a month, before oscillating mainly in the $84,000 range. This morning saw another wave of rapid increases, reporting $85,721 before the deadline, up 3.18% over the past seven days. Other major tokens mostly showed slight increases, with Ethereum striving to stabilize above $2,000, and the meme craze on the BNB chain continuing to attract attention. Signs of market recovery are gradually emerging, and investor sentiment has improved.In the forex and commodities sector, the dollar index rose by 0.34% for the week, marking its first weekly increase this month. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East continue to escalate, with crude oil rising over 2% for two consecutive weeks. Spot gold increased by 1.31% last week, marking three consecutive weeks of gains.Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, in line with market expectations, with guidance for two rate cuts remaining for the year, and Powell's remarks provided some comfort to the market. This week, attention will focus on the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, to be released on Friday. Additionally, as the "tariff deadline" on April 2 approaches, uncertainty keeps the market cautious. However, once the tariff outlook becomes clearer, the prolonged market turbulence may subside.

The Central Bank of Russia tightens regulations on digital assets and implements stricter standards for foreign exchange business supervision

ChainCatcher news, the Central Bank of Russia has introduced regulations to manage foreign exchange operations involving digital rights. According to Russian law, digital rights include electronic records such as cryptocurrencies, tokenized securities, and digital tokens. These rights represent claims or obligations related to assets or services. The new decree will take effect on January 11 and outlines the obligations of residents engaged in such transactions, aiming to clarify and strengthen the oversight of digital assets used for trade and payment purposes.A key requirement outlined in the regulation is that foreign trade contracts involving digital rights settlements must be registered with authorized banks. The document states: "Foreign trade contracts, including those settled using digital rights, must be registered with authorized banks. The registration thresholds for these contracts remain unchanged: import contracts exceeding 3 million rubles and export contracts exceeding 10 million rubles."In addition to registration, the Central Bank of Russia also explained: "The regulation specifies the documents and information that residents must provide to banks, including transaction data related to the transfer or receipt of digital rights as a means of payment under foreign trade contracts, as well as data related to other foreign exchange operations involving digital rights."By defining these requirements, the Central Bank of Russia aims to integrate digital rights into the broader financial system while reducing the risks associated with their use.

The Japanese government has formally responded to the proposal for establishing Bitcoin reserves: the volatility of crypto assets is inconsistent with the current foreign exchange system

ChainCatcher news, according to Coinpost, the Japanese government has officially responded to the inquiry by Senator Akira Hamada regarding "the promotion of Bitcoin reserves by the United States and other countries." Hamada previously stated on December 11 that "Japan should follow the example of the United States and other countries and consider converting part of its foreign exchange reserves into Bitcoin and other crypto assets."In response, the Japanese government stated that it has not yet fully grasped the relevant movements of the United States and other countries, believing that discussions in other countries about introducing Bitcoin reserves are still ongoing, and "the government finds it difficult to take a position on specific situations." According to the legal framework of special accounting operations, "crypto assets do not fall under foreign exchange," and the current foreign exchange reserves aim to maintain the stability of foreign currency assets and foreign currency bond markets.The defense document repeatedly emphasizes that special accounting operations will prioritize ensuring the safety and liquidity of foreign exchange reserves, implying that the volatility of crypto assets like Bitcoin does not align with the current system.

The Japanese government responds to inquiries about Bitcoin reserves: The volatility of crypto assets is inconsistent with the current foreign exchange system

ChainCatcher news, according to Coinpost, the Japanese government has made an official response to Senator Akira Hamada's inquiry regarding "the promotion of Bitcoin reserves by the United States and other countries." Akira Hamada previously suggested on December 11 that "Japan should follow the example of the United States and other countries and consider converting part of its foreign exchange reserves into Bitcoin and other crypto assets."In response, the Japanese government stated that it has not yet fully grasped the relevant movements of the United States and other countries, believing that discussions in other countries about introducing Bitcoin reserves are still ongoing, and "the government finds it difficult to take a position on specific situations." According to the legal framework governing special accounting operations, "crypto assets do not fall under foreign exchange," and the current foreign exchange reserves aim to maintain the stability of foreign currency assets and foreign currency bond markets.The response document repeatedly emphasizes that ensuring the safety and liquidity of foreign exchange reserves is the top priority of special accounting operations, implying that the volatility of Bitcoin and other crypto assets is not compatible with the current system.

South Korea is expected to amend the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act to prevent foreign exchange crimes such as money laundering involving virtual assets

ChainCatcher news, South Korean lawmaker Choi Eun-sik has proposed an amendment to the "Foreign Exchange Transactions Act," aimed at preventing money laundering and other foreign exchange crimes related to virtual assets. The amendment proposes the establishment of a monitoring system for virtual asset transactions, the improvement of the institutional foundation for financial technology foreign exchange services, the enhancement of the convenience of foreign exchange transactions for individuals and businesses, and the strengthening of the intelligent construction of the foreign exchange monitoring system.He stated that the rapid development of virtual assets and financial technology in recent years has diversified cross-border transaction methods, but current laws have failed to cover these changes, leading to regulatory blind spots, particularly as money laundering involving virtual assets and illegal foreign exchange transactions have become increasingly serious.According to data from the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), the number of suspicious transaction reports from virtual asset merchants increased by 48.8% last year compared to the previous year. The Ministry of Finance plans to add definitions for virtual assets and virtual asset merchants next year and requires virtual asset merchants to register before conducting cross-border transactions and to regularly report users' transaction records to the Bank of Korea.The amendment is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year.
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