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fund

The founder of the "Black Swan Fund" warns: the S&P 500 may drop sharply after reaching 8000 points

According to Jinshi News, Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of the "Black Swan Fund" Universa Investments, stated that the upward trend of the U.S. stock market is far from over—at least for now.In a recent letter to investors, Spitznagel wrote that in the coming year, the market will continue to be in the "Goldilocks zone—where inflation and interest rates are declining, the economy is slowing but not excessively, and market sentiment turns euphoric—the stock market will continue to rise and end with a surge." However, he added that "the largest bubble in human history" has now entered its final stage.Spitznagel's hedge fund has been around for nearly two decades, focusing on tail risk hedging, which protects investors' portfolios from the impact of the next major crash. He stated that as long as the economy remains resilient, the stock market will continue to rise—a view he has maintained since the end of 2022. In an interview, he mentioned that market euphoria could drive the S&P 500 index to 8,000 points or even higher—followed by a sharp reversal.What is concerning is that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rate levels for an extended period, companies will begin to struggle to raise funds. Spitznagel noted that although the economy appears resilient, there is a lag effect in monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve's excessive focus on lagging indicators like inflation has already fallen behind the situation."The Federal Reserve is currently holding steady, and as the economy gradually worsens, the market will expect more easing policies to be introduced," he said. In this context, the stock market will rise on expectations of more rate cuts, only to quickly decline during an economic slowdown. "At some point, the Federal Reserve will be powerless to turn things around, just like what happened in 2007 and 2008."

Wells Fargo: A massive tax refund is expected to boost Bitcoin prices, with $150 billion flowing into the market by the end of March

According to CNBC, Wells Fargo stated that some taxpayers may receive larger refunds this year compared to previous years, which could drive funds into risk assets such as stocks and Bitcoin. This is due to provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act passed last summer that are favorable to taxpayers in 2025.Additionally, the IRS did not update its withholding tax tables last year, so wage earners are less likely to face surprises from adjustments to taxes already withheld.Wells Fargo noted in its latest analyst report that these factors could lead to as much as $150 billion flowing into the market by the end of March, as over 60% of refunds are issued.The bank's analysts added that the expected liquidity injection could boost Bitcoin as well as stocks favored by retail investors, such as Boeing and Robinhood. Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon stated in a report on Sunday, "We believe the additional savings from tax refunds—especially for high-income consumers—will flow back into the stock market.""Increased savings will drive speculative sentiment... We expect the 'YOLO' mentality to return." The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin could serve as a proxy indicator for liquidity, signaling a shift in investment patterns. According to Wells Fargo data, domestic liquidity has decreased by $105 billion over the past four weeks, while Bitcoin has retraced about 29% in the past month.

As of the end of last year, the Abu Dhabi Fund held over $1 billion in BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF

According to The Block, as reported in regulatory filings submitted on Tuesday, two Abu Dhabi-based funds held over $1 billion in BlackRock's flagship spot Bitcoin ETF as of the end of last year.The sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company disclosed that it holds 12,702,323 shares of the BlackRock fund (ticker: IBIT), valued at approximately $631 million. Additionally, according to two separate 13F filings submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the government-affiliated investment firm Al Warda Investments reported holding 8,218,712 shares, valued at $408 million.In the case of Mubadala, its 13F filing shows that the number of IBIT shares held by the fund increased by 46% compared to the filings submitted to the SEC in the third quarter. For most of last year, this Abu Dhabi fund held over 8 million shares of IBIT. BlackRock's spot BTC fund is the largest of its kind, managing approximately $58 billion in assets.Due to the decline in Bitcoin prices in recent months, the fund's value has significantly shrunk. 13F filings are submitted quarterly to the SEC by institutional investment managers with assets under management of at least $100 million, disclosing their stock holdings at the end of each fiscal period. Since 13F reports only require the disclosure of long positions in U.S. stocks and stock options, they can only partially reflect the overall investment strategy of the investment managers.
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