The New York Times: Suspicious bets appeared on Polymarket before the poll was released

According to a report by The New York Times, researchers at Vanderbilt University found that a Polymarket user bet nearly $200,000 on October 31, believing that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would win re-election. About an hour later, a poll released jointly by The New York Times and Siena College showed Ricketts in the lead. The report stated that it is currently unclear whether the user had insider information, but their profit exceeded $77,000.

The report also mentioned that the user made similar large bets in other markets, including Kalshi. Brett Goldstein from Vanderbilt University's National Security Research Institute stated that this series of events is difficult to consider as random occurrences and requires further investigation. Polymarket stated that it has identified related transactions and is investigating, while Kalshi declined to comment.

In April of this year, Cointelegraph reported that a U.S. Army soldier was sued for profiting over $400,000 from bets in a prediction market, allegedly using non-public information related to U.S. actions against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. Department of Justice stated that Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve," which captured Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January of this year. He is accused of using that information to buy "yes" shares of related Polymarket contracts, including "Maduro will resign before January 31."