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crypto

Strategy MSTR's convertible bonds have been reduced from $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion, and Coinbase has become one of the three major cryptocurrency concept stocks ahead of this week's FOMC

According to BBX data, ahead of the FOMC meeting yesterday and under the dual catalyst of the US-Iran agreement, the sentiment for cryptocurrency concept stocks has significantly warmed up. The core dynamics are as follows:Strategy, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MSTR) rose 3.18% to $123.97 on June 15, marking one of several days of recovery; Bitcoin rose to about $64,000 during the same period, but there remains about a 15% discount compared to the company's average price of $75,680 for 843,738 BTC. The company's most important balance sheet action recently came from the SEC 8-K on May 25: repurchasing $1.5 billion in face value convertible bonds maturing in 2029 for about $1.38 billion in cash (completed at about an 8% discount to face value), reducing the convertible bond stock from $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion, generating a BTC Yield of 0.7% and a BTC Gain of about 4,391 BTC; as of May 25, USD reserves were $871 million, and the company stated it would "supplement reserves over time based on market conditions"; since the beginning of 2026, the cumulative BTC Yield is 13.3%. Phong Le (CEO): This transaction "reflects the discipline of using comprehensive capital management tools in debt management"; Saylor previously stated that Strategy still had assets covering all debts when BTC fell to $8,000, implying resilience in extreme scenarios.Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: $COIN) was listed by CoinGape in a June 15 research report as one of the "three cryptocurrency concept stocks to watch" ahead of this week's FOMC (the other two being $MSTR and $BMNR); currently, BTC is about $64,000 and ETH is about $1,660, with the market pricing a 97.4% probability of no interest rate hike at the FOMC on June 17 (2.6% for a rate cut, 0% for a rate hike); the significant US-Iran agreement (over the weekend of June 14-15) has driven a comprehensive rebound in risk assets, with a sharp drop in oil prices easing inflationary pressures, providing additional support for the recovery of sentiment in the cryptocurrency market—if the FOMC dot plot does not show unexpectedly hawkish signals, Coinbase's prediction market and institutional custody business are expected to benefit from the dual improvement in trading volume and asset scale brought about by the recovery of BTC trends.

Benchmark: The SEC's market structure reform may become the most critical variable for cryptocurrency regulation this year, benefiting tokenized stocks and AMM trading

According to The Block, investment bank Benchmark pointed out in its latest research report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed to repeal Rule 611 and Rule 610(e) of Regulation NMS, which could become the "most decisive regulatory change" affecting the market structure of cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets in 2026.The proposal was announced on June 11 and aims to eliminate trading protection and quote constraint rules that have been in place for nearly 20 years in the U.S. stock market. The SEC stated that this move is intended to reduce trading costs and provide greater space for market competition and technological innovation.Benchmark's analysis believes that the current Rule 611 (order protection rule) requires trades to adhere to the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO), while Rule 610(e) restricts "locked/crossed quotes." These mechanisms are effective in traditional matching systems but create structural constraints for automated market maker (AMM) models in decentralized finance (DeFi).The report pointed out that if the relevant rules are repealed, it will significantly lower the compliance barriers for tokenized stocks and on-chain trading systems, making AMM-based trading models easier to access the U.S. capital market system.In terms of potential beneficiaries, Benchmark specifically mentioned Securitize, believing that it will benefit most directly as a provider of tokenized securities infrastructure, while Coinbase and Galaxy Digital will also benefit from the expansion of trading, market-making, and custody infrastructure. However, the report also emphasized that the rule adjustments do not address all core issues, such as the exchange registration system, custody and clearing framework, and the legal positioning of DeFi-native trading still needs further clarification.The industry generally expects that the subsequent "innovation exemption mechanism" will become a key supporting policy. The SEC has currently opened a 60-day public comment period on the proposal, and the market anticipates that the final vote may take place in early 2027.

Most crypto funds believe that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out, and the market bottom may form between the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4

Most institutional investors believe that Bitcoin still has room for further decline, and the overall market sentiment is cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainty, tightening liquidity, ETF fund outflows, and the shift of funds towards areas like AI may still exert pressure on BTC prices. David Grider, a partner at Finality Capital, stated that the firm expects the market bottom in this cycle may not appear until the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026, and believes that Bitcoin may complete its bottoming process in the range of $45,000 to $55,000. Even among some investors who believe the market is close to the bottom, there is a general expectation of no strong rebound in the short term.Research shows that most funds are currently increasing cash positions, reducing directional risk exposure, and adopting more market-neutral, hedging, and derivative strategies to cope with volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds continue to focus on fundamentally strong areas such as DeFi, AI, and tokenized assets, rather than purely allocating to Bitcoin. Institutions generally believe that the high interest rate environment, liquidity contraction, geopolitical risks, and the flow of funds towards growth sectors like AI are the main downside risks facing the current market. In addition, some funds have also identified the leverage financing model of Strategy and the development of quantum computing as emerging risk factors in this cycle.Regarding the year-end trend, the funds surveyed did not provide a Bitcoin target price above $100,000. Some institutions expect BTC to fluctuate in the range of $40,000 to $80,000 within the year and believe that improvements in interest rate cut expectations, a recovery in liquidity, and progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act may become important catalysts for market recovery.

Standard Chartered declares "the crypto winter is over" with Bitcoin cycle lows possibly at $59,000, Nakamoto Inc. sells 600 BTC to repay $45 million and buy back $25 million in stock

According to BBX data, last week institutional research qualitatively shifted historically, with Bitcoin reserve companies accelerating deleveraging. The core dynamics are as follows:Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered PLC (LSE: $STAN), released a research report on June 12, officially declaring that "the crypto winter is likely over." He believes that the $59,000 level for Bitcoin has formed the low point of this bear market cycle, marking a significant turning point in market sentiment. Kendrick stated that a large amount of IPO allocation funds will flow back into risk assets after the SpaceX IPO, and the funding flow for Bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to achieve a structural reversal after this adjustment, combined with the continuous expansion of corporate reserve demand, supporting his view with three factors. This is the strongest "bear end" qualitative statement from institutional research so far in 2026— the last similar clear statement came from the same team at Standard Chartered in December 2023, after which Bitcoin confirmed a breakthrough of historical highs in 2024.Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: $NAKA) (Nashville, a Bitcoin operating company, also operating Bitcoin Magazine) disclosed a series of balance sheet optimization measures through an official press release on BusinessWire on June 11: selling approximately 600 BTC and Bitcoin-related derivatives, netting about $48 million, to repay a $45 million loan to Kraken (Payward Interactive); the remaining loan balance is $165 million USDT (down from the original $210 million), restructured under new terms: $60 million USDT maturing on December 4, 2026, and $105 million USDT extended to June 30, 2027; the new interest rate is reduced to 7.75% (previously 8%), requiring the maintenance of 2,000 BTC as collateral in a Bitwise Asset Management custodial account, saving approximately $4 million in annual financing costs; the board also approved a $25 million stock repurchase plan (as of December 31, 2026). After the transaction, the company holds approximately 4,467 BTC (approximately $284 million, estimated at recent prices); the company previously completed a 1-for-40 reverse stock split at the end of May and received confirmation from Nasdaq on June 9 that it has restored compliance with the minimum $1 share price requirement; after the news was announced, $NAKA briefly rose about 20% during trading.

a16z Crypto Operating Partner: Capital flow is the moat, and there are plenty of opportunities for crypto entrepreneurs

a16z Crypto Operating Partner Jason Rosenthal posted on the X platform that cash flow is the moat. The best companies often establish themselves by placing themselves in the "cash flow," and cryptocurrency is the first modern technology born for this purpose. If your startup has not designed its products and business models around these principles, you will miss a great opportunity. Thanks to stablecoins, funds and value can now flow at the speed of the internet—global settlement, 24/7 uninterrupted, with end-to-end programmability.Railway companies do not make money from locomotives, but from every ton of goods that pass through the tracks; companies like Visa and Jane Street are all part of the cash flow. Cash flow combined with network effects is one of the most enduring business structures in history. There is a lot of profit margin in traditional financial services, and processes such as payments, custody, lending, foreign exchange, settlement, and market making can all be compressed. Crypto entrepreneurs have the opportunity to build the next generation of cash flow businesses that are programmable, instant, and global.This model can also be extended to computing, GPU markets, AI training data, energy, robotics, space, rare earth metals, and other fields. Founders should ask themselves: Are you in the cash flow? When the value of product activities grows tenfold, does your revenue grow accordingly? In your target market, where are the segments with the highest profit margins relative to the value created?
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