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Galaxy: The structural issues in strategy have not yet been fully resolved, and it is necessary to explore ways to generate income from its BTC holdings

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn stated that the capital management adjustments announced by Strategy on Monday mark an important turning point. In the weeks prior, the "digital credit" system of Strategy's preferred shares faced pressure, with the preferred share STRC falling below its $100 par value and hitting a historical low of $71.25 on June 26, leading the market to question how the company would pay the increasingly high preferred share dividends.Strategy subsequently announced a new digital credit capital framework, including a board-approved dollar reserve policy, a revised STRC dividend policy, a $1 billion preferred securities repurchase authorization, a $1 billion MSTR common stock repurchase authorization, and a BTC monetization plan. At the same time, the board raised the annual dividend rate of STRC from 11.5% to 12%, applicable to semi-monthly dividends for record dates on or after July 1. Following the announcement, MSTR rose 12.6% to about $92.70 on Monday, while STRC increased by 12.2% to about $83.70.Thorn believes that Strategy's approach is wise, but it may not permanently resolve structural issues. The company still has a large preferred share system and ongoing payment obligations, and it will face $6.7 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2027 and 2028. The market is not truly concerned about Strategy's lack of assets, but rather whether it has sufficient dollar liquidity to pay dividends without harming BTC holders, MSTR common stock shareholders, or preferred shareholders. By raising over $1 billion in cash through the sale of common stock, setting a minimum cash reserve policy for 12 months, and increasing the current cash coverage ratio to about 17 months, Strategy has bought itself time.The most controversial aspect is the BTC monetization plan, which seems to clearly indicate that Strategy may sell BTC from time to time. Thorn does not want to see Strategy sell Bitcoin, as the company's identity and the MSTR premium are built on its narrative as a long-term BTC exposure tool, and selling BTC would undermine that story.However, he also believes that if selling a small amount of BTC can prevent a disorderly spiral in the capital structure, protect preferred shares, and wait for a better market environment, this path can be justified. Strategy should explore how to generate income from its BTC assets without directly selling spot BTC, including conservatively lending a small amount of isolated BTC or using options strategies to capture volatility gains.

first_img Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the "CLARITY Act" passing to 50%

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 from 60% three weeks ago to 50%, due to the increasingly tight Senate schedule, the lack of a published merged text for the bill, no scheduled votes, and no public commitment from leadership. The bill has been listed as item 423 on the legislative calendar since it passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a vote of 15-9, but no motion to advance it has been scheduled to date.The report indicates that the Senate must announce a schedule by early July to complete voting before the August recess; otherwise, it will be postponed until September, when the upcoming midterm elections will make controversial votes harder to arrange. Priority legislation such as FISA Section 702 and the NDAA occupies a significant amount of time, and Trump's veto of the housing bill further exacerbates scheduling pressures.The substantive content of the bill has not yet been fully resolved, and ethical provisions remain a core controversy, with at least two Republican senators expected to vote against it, making Democratic support essential. The report suggests that if leadership clarifies a commitment to vote in July within the next two weeks, the probability of passage will rise to 60% or higher; if there is continued lack of progress, it will be further lowered.

Galaxy CEO: Strategy stocks and preferred securities have become key indicators for measuring Bitcoin market risk

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.
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