prediction

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin November Price Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Above $70,000" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 74.5% an hour ago to the current 59% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to the announcement from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency has sued Louisiana, seeking to prevent the state from banning event contracts offered by exchanges and other entities regulated by the CFTC.The CFTC stated that a Louisiana court had previously issued an order to halt the operations of more than 30 companies related to CFTC-regulated derivatives trading within the state, without notifying the defendants or providing an opportunity for them to present their case. The agency noted that Louisiana is the 12th state it has sued to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over the derivatives market.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction for November 9-15" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Below $68,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 60% an hour ago to the current 44.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Meta Platforms (META.O) is testing a new prediction market application with employees.

Chairman James Comer of the House Oversight Committee, a Republican, has called for new restrictions on government officials' participation in prediction markets, including the possibility of a complete ban. The committee released the conclusions of an investigation that began in May of this year on Friday, which examined the risks of government officials, military personnel, and those with security clearances using insider information to place bets in prediction markets. Comer stated that the committee reviewed 1,700 pages of documents and heard five bipartisan staff briefings provided by prediction market companies.Comer stated that Congress must consider further reforms to prevent public corruption and restore the American people's trust in the government. The committee believes that relevant reforms should legislate restrictions on the types of bets federal employees, lawmakers, and congressional staff can participate in within prediction markets, or directly implement a complete ban. The committee's memorandum noted that whether a complete ban on prediction market trading is imposed or only restrictions on certain contracts related to government, applying such restrictions to officials across all branches of government would reinforce the ethical expectation that government personnel should not use non-public information obtained through their positions for personal financial gain.This concern has intensified over the past year, stemming from an active-duty U.S. Army soldier using confidential information to bet on Polymarket before the arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, after which government personnel, including a former White House teleprompter operator, were also found to have profited from insider information. The committee also suggested that Congress push for prediction market companies to share necessary information with federal agencies to enforce restrictions. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have stated that they have taken measures to strengthen controls, and in April of this year, the Senate passed a resolution banning lawmakers from trading in prediction markets.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "220-239" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 62.85% an hour ago to the current 89.85% (a fluctuation of 27%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CNBC, Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated in an interview with CNBC that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and will advance related lawsuits to the Supreme Court if necessary, while preventing states from suing CFTC-regulated exchanges on the grounds of unlicensed betting operations.Regarding the proposed cryptocurrency regulatory framework by the CFTC, Michael Selig mentioned that several major cryptocurrency exchanges have registered with the CFTC for offering derivatives such as perpetual contracts, and after the new regulations are implemented, they can increase spot trading on their platforms; some newly entering institutions in the market, unwilling to apply for licenses in all 50 states one by one, have also sought to register with the CFTC.For exchanges that currently do not offer margin, leverage, or financing trading, the framework adopts a voluntary participation mechanism.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin November Price Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Below $67,500" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 54.5% an hour ago to the current 73.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin November Price Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "72,500 USD" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 64% an hour ago to the current 87% (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of the "Bitcoin price prediction from November 9-15" on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "below $72,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 49% an hour ago to the current 67.5% (a fluctuation of 18.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Nick Tomaino, a partner at 1confirmation, stated that 1confirmation has participated in all rounds of financing for Polymarket to date and has decided to increase its investment again. Although the fund focuses on seed-stage investments and typically does not participate in later-stage financing, it believes that Polymarket is worth breaking this investment convention.Nick Tomaino mentioned that there has been a demand for prediction markets for over a century, as users wish to place bets on events in politics, culture, and more. In the age of AI, one of the biggest challenges faced by young people is discerning the truth of information, and prediction markets can transform users' trading and investment enthusiasm into more accurate information.He emphasized that the long-term value of Polymarket is not just in sports betting, but in providing a more effective information discovery mechanism for political, geopolitical, and cultural events. Currently, while the U.S. market is primarily focused on sports trading, the accuracy of information is what gives prediction markets their more enduring value.Additionally, he believes that Polymarket's business is continuously upgrading, with the current management team performing excellently, and the products in the U.S. market are at an industry-leading level, with revenue consistently reaching new highs. Regarding the token program, he stated that while he did not fully agree with some of the related promotional methods previously, it is unreasonable to assert that the token program has lost its potential.Finally, Nick Tomaino stated that Polymarket founder Shayne has a strong desire for success and is one of the most direct and transparent people he knows.

According to a ruling by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the operator of the sports prediction market Novig, Ludlow Exchange, had its application to block a preliminary injunction regarding the applicability of betting laws in New York State denied.The court determined at the preliminary injunction stage that Novig's sports event contracts do not fall under the definition of swap contracts as defined by the Commodity Exchange Act, allowing New York State to require it to obtain a state betting license or prohibit the relevant contracts from being listed and traded in its market. The ruling document shows that Novig was designated as a contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in June 2026 and began offering sports event contracts to New York customers in August.

The Vice President of Engineering at the prediction market platform Polymarket, Josh Stevens, announced that the platform has launched a withdrawal address whitelist feature. Users can lock the withdrawal address of their deposit wallet, and adding a new address requires email verification and setting a 48-hour time lock. Operations not performed by the user can be canceled via email.Stevens stated that even if a session is compromised or a malicious transaction is mistakenly signed, funds cannot be transferred to an uncontrolled address. This feature can be enabled in "Settings - Account," and Passkey support will be launched soon. The team is developing a migration tool for non-deposit wallets and will introduce advanced built-in security protections that do not require manual activation.

Warren's committee assistant stated that she plans to focus on predicting market regulation and the Trump family's cryptocurrency business after taking charge of the Senate Banking Committee in January next year.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction on November 9" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the submarket "Above $76,000" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 65% an hour ago to the current 23.5% (a fluctuation of 41.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to The Block, the prediction market broker River Markets stated that its affiliate River Finance LLC has registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States and has joined the National Futures Association (NFA), allowing it to hold customer accounts and manage customer funds.River Markets is building a primary brokerage platform for prediction markets aimed at institutional traders, planning to enable clients to manage funds, positions, and risks across multiple exchanges and clearinghouses through a single account, and to support financing arrangements and approved over-the-counter trading.The company was established in May of this year and claims to have transferred over 250 million contracts for clients such as hedge funds and proprietary trading firms, having previously completed a $8.5 million seed round of financing.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction from November 2-8" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Above $76,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 10% an hour ago to the current 44% (a fluctuation of 34%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction for November 2-8" on Polymarket, the "is" option in the sub-market "below $74,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 51.6% an hour ago to the current 35.95% (a fluctuation of 15.65%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Wall Street market maker and quantitative trading giant Hudson River Trading (HRT) has begun trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi, becoming one of the institutional trading firms to enter the prediction market after Jump Trading and Susquehanna International Group.Insiders revealed that HRT started trading on Kalshi about a month ago, with the relevant business managed by its futures team, primarily participating in the platform's "Up-Down Markets," which are contracts that settle based on the price increase or decrease of an asset over a short period. Currently, it has not ventured into sports and other non-financial event contracts. Additionally, HRT is also one of the participants in Kalshi's latest round of $1 billion financing, which values Kalshi at $40 billion.

According to BeInCrypto, Tarek Mansour, the CEO of the prediction market platform Kalshi, stated in an interview with CNBC that he supports the establishment of strict rules to prohibit members of Congress, government officials, and others from trading on prediction markets that they can influence.Mansour mentioned that Kalshi has been managing insider trading since its establishment in 2018. His remarks come as U.S. lawmakers discuss restrictions on prediction markets, with Democratic lawmakers Jeff Merkley and Jamie Raskin previously proposing legislation to ban event contracts involving elections, sports, military actions, and most government activities.