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Viewpoint: The meme coin market has shown a "classic surrender signal," which may be brewing a rebound

According to a report by Cointelegraph, Santiment's latest report shows that the Memecoin market is currently exhibiting "classic capitulation signals." Despite the overall volatile trend in the cryptocurrency market, the sector may be approaching a temporary bottom.Data shows that the total market capitalization of Memecoins has dropped by about 34% over the past 30 days, falling to $31.02 billion. During the same period, Dogecoin fell by 32%. Santiment points out that there is currently a rising "nostalgic" sentiment towards Memecoins on social media, with many traders generally accepting the narrative of the "end of the meme era," and this consistent pessimism is often a typical market capitulation signal.The report states that when a sector is "completely sentenced to death" by the market, it is often the point of contrarian attention, as "maximum pain often corresponds to a temporary bottom." Additionally, Santiment notes that bearish comments on crypto social media significantly outnumber bullish comments. Historical experience shows that the market usually moves in the opposite direction of public expectations. Even if prices rebound, doubts remain in the market, which may instead favor a more sustained recovery trend.Santiment emphasizes that as Bitcoin becomes more institutionalized, the traditional path of "Bitcoin hitting new highs → Ethereum catching up → altcoin season rotating comprehensively" may no longer be fully applicable. In the future, altcoin trends may become more differentiated rather than simply "a rising tide lifts all boats."

JPMorgan has significantly lowered the target price for Coinbase to $290, but there is still a potential upside of 75%

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington significantly lowered his target price for Coinbase stock from $399 to $290 ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which is set to be released this Thursday. Worthington remains optimistic about the stock, noting that the revised target price still implies a 75% upside from Coinbase's current price of $165.5.He expects adjusted EBITDA to be $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. He stated that this would represent a sharp decline compared to previous quarters, primarily driven by decreased trading volumes, weakening cryptocurrency prices, and a slowdown in the growth of USDC stablecoin balances. Worthington anticipates that the spot cryptocurrency trading volume for the quarter will be $263 billion.He also pointed out the reduction in circulating USDC and predicted stablecoin-related revenue to be $312 million. These adverse factors are partially offset by the total quarterly revenue contributed by Deribit (the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange acquired by Coinbase last August). Including Deribit, JPMorgan's model forecasts total trading revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing approximately $117 million based on an estimated trading volume of about $586 billion.In the previous quarter, the trading platform reported trading revenue of $1 billion. In terms of subscription and services revenue, the bank expects revenue to be $670 million, down from Coinbase's prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting weak cryptocurrency prices, declining staking yields, and a slowdown in USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to be below guidance due to the company's cost control measures.
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