CITIC Securities evaluates the U.S. April CPI: "Good data" that is not easy to sustain
ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, CITIC Securities research report states that the U.S. April CPI growth rate performed moderately and below expectations, but prices of goods such as furniture, home appliances, and toys seem to have begun reflecting the impact of tariffs imposed by the White House. The overall year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% may have already been the low point for the entire year. Our static calculations indicate that if the tariff measures implemented by the White House since the beginning of the year remain unchanged after the U.S.-China joint statement on May 12, they could cumulatively raise the U.S. PCE deflator index by about 0.85% and long-term drag down the U.S. GDP scale by about 0.3%. The Trump administration must reduce the average price of prescription drugs in the U.S. by at least 30% to offset the inflationary impact of its tariff measures.The "ceiling" and "floor" of U.S. tariff levels are becoming vaguely visible, and the visibility of trade policies is recovering, which is a good thing for risk assets such as U.S. stocks. The dollar may also receive support in the near term, while we remain cautious about U.S. Treasuries.