Analysts: As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans may change
ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate level in its latest decision this week. The market's focus will be on whether the Federal Reserve will release any signals regarding the timing of future rate cuts.Recent CPI and PPI data have come in weaker than expected, prompting market participants to bring forward their expectations for the next rate cut. The money market has fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut in October this year, with a significant chance of action as early as September.Previously, the market widely expected a rate cut to occur in December. Citigroup analysts pointed out that the market may currently be underestimating the risk of a rate cut. However, the imposition of tariffs in the U.S. could drive up inflation, and if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate further, leading to continued increases in oil prices, this could further delay the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace.Allianz analysts stated that, in the context of high inflation, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hastily ease monetary policy.