arbitrage行为

Blockworks researcher Kunal Doshi posted on the X platform that Polymarket's newly launched 5-minute BTC market has generated $25.2 million in trading volume within 40 hours of its launch. The average trading volume per window is approximately $52,000, reaching 10% to 20% of the 15-minute market's trading volume.Data shows that 7.1% of unique addresses simultaneously purchased Yes and No in a single window, with only 4.2% of addresses executing this in more than 50 windows. Although the number of such addresses is small, their trading volume accounts for 7.5% of the total, and the number of trades represents 23.4% of the total. Among these, 92.6% of the orders are buy orders, and 72.3% are executed as limit orders.These addresses achieved profitability in 80% of the windows, with the median transaction price for Yes and No at $0.9823. Currently, the market is exhibiting early arbitrage behavior, and if structural liquidity is introduced, the trading volume in the 5-minute market is expected to exceed that of the 15-minute market.