btc

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin September Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "82,500 USD" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 49.5% an hour ago to the current 71% (a fluctuation of 21.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $81,338, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $2.142 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $73,702, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $1.319 billion.

According to SoSoValue data, the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $236 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow in a single day is Bitwise ETF BITB, with a single-day net inflow of $8.3832 million. Currently, BITB's historical total net inflow has reached $2.087 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflow in a single day is Blackrock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net outflow of $201 million. Currently, IBIT's historical total net inflow has reached $63.37 billion. As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $97.121 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (the market value compared to the total market value of Bitcoin) is 6.25%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $54.611 billion.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a certain whale transferred 95 bitcoins to Galaxy Digital, worth approximately 7.32 million USD, suspected to be used for over-the-counter trading sales.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza set the Bitcoin price target for the end of 2026 at $97,500, indicating about a 25% upside from the recent price level of around $78,000. Meanwhile, TD Cowen has lowered its previous benchmark forecast of about $140,000 for the end of 2026 to around $100,000, significantly reducing its previously more optimistic long-term expectations. Vitanza stated that this downgrade is mainly due to the recent weakness in Bitcoin prices, rather than a deterioration in company-level or market structure.Currently, BTC's recent trading range is approximately $58,400 to $78,000, with a maximum drawdown of over 50% from the previous high of over $126,000, and a monthly drawdown that once exceeded 20%. A clearer regulatory environment and inclusion in broader indices are still viewed by TD Cowen as potential catalysts for market recovery. For Strategy, TD Cowen has lowered its target price from $400 to $260 but maintains a "Buy" rating. This adjustment mainly follows the downward revision of Bitcoin price forecasts, rather than a change in the view of Strategy's operational performance or capital structure. Additionally, TD Cowen has initiated coverage on Strive, expecting the company to hold over 27,100 BTC by the end of 2026, and has given it a target price of $32, indicating about a 33% upside.

According to Coinglass data, the current whale holdings on the Hyperliquid platform amount to $7.206 billion, with long positions totaling $3.466 billion, accounting for 48.1% of the holdings, and short positions totaling $3.74 billion, accounting for 51.9%. The profit and loss for long positions is $284 million, while for short positions it is -$311 million.Among them, the whale address 0x5b5d..60 has shorted ETH with a full margin of 5 times at a price of $2151.87, currently showing an unrealized profit and loss of -$15.0186 million.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $315 million, with long positions liquidated at $251 million and short positions liquidated at $64.81 million. Among them, Bitcoin long positions were liquidated at $84.79 million, Bitcoin short positions at $14.5062 million, Ethereum long positions at $59.8758 million, and Ethereum short positions at $13.0213 million.In addition, in the last 24 hours, a total of 82,945 people were liquidated globally, with the largest single liquidation occurring on Binance - ETHUSDT worth $11.9946 million.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of "Bitcoin breaking through on September 2" in the prediction market Polymarket, the winning probability of the sub-market "78,000" for the "Yes" option has experienced severe fluctuations, plummeting from 36.5% an hour ago to the current 16.5% (a fluctuation of 20%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is currently priced at $76997.6, with a 24-hour decline of 2.4%.

According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $81,915, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $1.841 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $74,445, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $1.317 billion.

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo responded to investor Gary Cardone's doubts, stating that the current market value of gold is approximately $32 trillion. If it continues to play the role of a global currency anchor, its reasonable value should be around $103 trillion. He claims that the traditional view of gold as a "financial asset" is an "illusion" shaped by the U.S. government and Wall Street, and that gold has essentially existed as currency for thousands of years.Woo believes that Bitcoin is striving to become a global hard currency similar to gold. According to this logic, the price of Bitcoin corresponds to about $5 million per coin. He also pointed out that the global fiat currency system has only been in operation for about 55 years, which, compared to the thousands of years of hard currency history, resembles an "experiment."

The cryptocurrency exchange platform Binance saw an inflow of funds reaching $15.7 billion in August, setting a monthly record and accounting for over 75% of the total inflow to all centralized exchanges. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose over 20%, surpassing $80,000, driving an increase in exchange trading volume.Binance Research pointed out that $15.7 billion is approximately 8.4 times that of the second-largest exchange by positive inflow, with Bybit and OKX ranking among the three exchanges with concentrated liquidity. The inflow to smaller platforms is more dispersed. Additionally, Binance faces accusations in the European Union for accepting local users without obtaining a license under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $168 million, with long positions liquidated at $66.959 million and short positions liquidated at $101 million. Among them, Bitcoin long positions were liquidated at $18.7146 million, Bitcoin short positions at $34.2519 million, Ethereum long positions at $9.9291 million, and Ethereum short positions at $26.5892 million.In addition, in the last 24 hours, a total of 62,280 people were liquidated globally, with the largest single liquidation occurring on Binance - ETHUSDT worth $4.9298 million.

According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is currently priced at $77974.4, with a 24-hour decline of 0.11%.

Tom Lee stated during his appearance on CNBC: "I believe that there are actually very few people who truly hold cryptocurrencies. Because of this, I think Bitcoin can easily break through six figures (like over $100,000), but it may also be affected by interest rate hikes. As for how cryptocurrencies will perform, I think this will be a good test, but we have already seen long-term yields (interest rates) rising. So, if we see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates while long-term yields actually decline, that would essentially mean monetary easing. Therefore, the key may be how long-term yields respond to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes."He also added: "I think this is just the first wave of the rise because this round of cryptocurrency market has caught many people off guard. Well, I believe institutional investors are buying stocks related to cryptocurrencies, and this is very obvious—trading volume has surged significantly, which signals that they are betting on a big market in the fourth quarter. I think $150,000 is still possible, well, it's actually not that far from now."

Greeks.live researcher Adam stated: "I see some people discussing the Strategy to restart buying coins. This short-term stimulus does not affect the long-term trend, and the Strategy is also a big trap. BTC now has no possibility of market manipulation, and no one can predict the trend. It can only be said that after the Strategy has floating profits, there is more room to buy coins. Looking at the long term, the overall ETF is still flowing out, and it is very difficult to stabilize at $80,000, with significant selling pressure.On the macro front, whether it is the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks or the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, both are challenging the already fragile investors. The short-term volatility is decreasing rapidly, and it is difficult to support a bull market with just one bullish candle. I hope that after a slight correction, it can reach above $85,000; otherwise, arbitrageurs and sellers will create significant selling pressure. The Gex at the end of the month is gathering, and we need to maintain this momentum."

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that from August 18 to 28, the 30-day cumulative distribution of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) increased from 174,500 to 281,900, a rise of 61.5%, reaching the highest level since 2026 on August 28. This metric accelerated significantly during the rapid rebound after the short-term squeeze in Bitcoin, indicating that long-term holders are taking profits as prices rise.Meanwhile, the LTH MVRV rose from 1.31 on August 18 to 1.64 on August 27, remaining at a level of 1.6 on August 31, which means that the market value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders is approximately 60% higher than their average realized value. This suggests that despite the increase in distribution activity, long-term holders still possess significant unrealized profits. Axel believes that the price rebound after the short-term squeeze has simultaneously elevated the profit levels of long-term holders and the speed of token distribution, creating conditions for further profit-taking. If Bitcoin prices remain stable, long-term holders may continue to release supply, adding extra selling pressure to the market. The current key issue for the market is whether the high-level distribution by long-term holders will continue and whether new buying can absorb this additional supply; otherwise, the market may face price pressure again.

Bitcoin has reappeared with a "kimchi premium" in the South Korean market. The price of Bitcoin in Korean won on South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Upbit, is about 1% higher than the price in US dollars on Binance. This premium has persisted for a week, marking the longest duration since early May.At the beginning of September, Bitcoin's price was around $79,000, having briefly surpassed $80,000 in August. The net inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $1.92 billion in the week of August 17, setting a new weekly high for the past 10 months; by the end of August, another $923 million flowed in.Data from Upbit shows that for most of this summer, Bitcoin was trading at a discount in the South Korean market compared to international prices, with the discount reaching 3.1% in early June and an average discount of 0.25% in August. 10x Research indicates that while the Korean premium has turned positive, spot trading volume has not increased in tandem.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, James Wynn has switched from shorting to going long on BTC. He closed a short position of 1.33 BTC (approximately $103,000) with a loss of about $1,500, and then opened a long position of 1.86 BTC (approximately $147,000) with 30x leverage, with a liquidation price of $77,243.53.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha's data, the group holding 100 to 1,000 BTC has cumulatively increased its holdings by 73,300 BTC over the past 60 days, reaching the highest level since April 21, but still about 20% lower than the peak of 91,920 BTC on April 21.At the same time, the group holding over 10,000 BTC maintains a positive growth of 43,300 BTC. This contrasts sharply with the previous period from April to May, when the group holding over 10,000 BTC fell to about -40,000 BTC around May 14, followed by a roughly 25% drop in Bitcoin prices. Analysts point out that the current structure of the whale group is completely different from before.