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first_img Galaxy Research: The conditional market begins to expand, affecting the market approaching the mainnet

Galaxy Research released a research report on October 15, categorizing decision markets and impact markets as conditional markets. These two types of conditional trading settle only when specific outcomes occur, and decision markets also settle on clear and binding results. Unlike prediction markets, conditional markets are not limited to binary, all-or-nothing structures; they trade real assets and their prices rather than synthetic probability contracts, with the byproduct being the impact of events on asset values rather than occurrence probabilities. The agency referred to prediction markets as the zero version of event-driven finance, with a large number of experiments emerging over the past 18 months, and new infrastructure pushing it beyond prediction markets.The ownership token-based issuance platform Umia, aimed at EVM-compatible chains, launched in September, expanding decision markets from being primarily limited to Solana, where MetaDAO was the first to scale binary pass or fail markets, to multi-outcome markets that can price proposal parameters. A deposit of stablecoins or DAO tokens can simultaneously convert into positions covering each outcome, with only winning market trades ultimately settling. Currently, 22 DAO treasuries fully governed by decision markets hold a total of $50.5 million, with MetaDAO accounting for 21 of them and 78% of the assets; the stablecoin portion is $35.8 million, with MetaDAO holding 82%. The fundraising for the market-governed DAO issuance platform by MetaDAO was approximately 11 months prior to this research report. Umia extends the issuable chains to Solana or EVM, which together account for about 92% of TVL by chain type.

Qian Zhiming's 40 billion illegal fundraising case update: the prosecution has applied to confiscate over 61,800 bitcoins and other assets, and the court has accepted the case

According to a report by The Paper, the case of Qian Zhimin, involving over 40 billion yuan in illegal fundraising and more than 60,000 bitcoins, has seen new developments in domestic judicial procedures. The Tianjin Second Intermediate People's Court announced that it has accepted the Tianjin People's Procuratorate Second Branch's application to confiscate the illegal gains of the suspect Qian Zhimin as of September 28.According to the property confiscation list published by the Tianjin Second Intermediate Court, in addition to bitcoins, the involved virtual currencies also include 72,745.79502 bitcoins cash, 72,745.78555 bitcoins gold, 72,745.7845 bitcoins Satoshi Vision, 3,605,989.9995 ripples, and 70,081,208.62553222 dogecoins (which have been converted and deposited into an interest-bearing account by British judicial authorities). Additionally, the confiscated assets also include cash in US dollars, euros, and British pounds, jewelry, as well as bank balances and investment portfolios.The Tianjin People's Procuratorate Second Branch believes that Qian Zhimin is suspected of fundraising fraud, and after fleeing, he has been wanted for a year without appearing in court. There is evidence proving that over 61,800 bitcoins and other assets seized in the UK belong to illegal gains and their proceeds, and should be recovered along with the transformed and converted properties and proceeds, except for those legally returned to the harmed fundraising participants, which should be confiscated.

The success rate of the Zhipu legal model is nearly three times higher, and the testing cost is about one-seventieth of that of its competitors

The artificial intelligence company Zhipu released a legal-specific model GLM-Legal, which is further trained based on GLM-5.3-Flash. In the Harvey LAB evaluation covering 24 categories of legal services, the task pass rate increased from 6.7% to 19.2%, nearly tripling the original version, surpassing models like Kimi K3 and Claude Fable 5, and ranking seventh on the Vals AI leaderboard.When reviewing software service contracts, GLM-Legal suggested shortening the termination notice period from 60 days to 30 days and required service providers to offer up to 90 days of handover support. In another software project dispute involving 40 documents, it found that the company reported to the client that the project was 60% complete, while internal records indicated only about 41%. It also identified emails from the CEO requesting to conceal risks and continue charging, and analyzed potential legal liabilities in conjunction with contract terms.According to independent evaluations by Vals AI, the cost for GLM-Legal to complete a test is $0.15, while the closely performing Gemini 4 Argon costs $10.55, a cost difference of about 70 times. GLM-Legal took an average of 72 minutes, while the latter took 44 minutes. Zhipu stated that the model was trained specifically on legal data and conducted reinforcement learning in tens of thousands of simulated legal environments. Currently, GLM-Legal requires an API trial application.

first_img Galaxy: Polymarket 69.2% retail account loss

Galaxy Research released a report titled "The Behavior of Polymarket Traders," with data compiled by Stork, based on approximately 2.9 million retail accounts defined by trading frequency on the Polymarket international platform. The report states that since its launch in 2020, the platform has facilitated 1.27 billion orders, involving 3.07 million wallets, with a nominal amount of 82.8 billion USD. 125,429 accounts that placed more than 50 orders on active days were excluded, accounting for 4.1% of accounts but contributing 80.8% of orders and 41% of nominal trading volume.The report shows that 69.2% of retail accounts are below breakeven, with total losses of 338.9 million USD. The median retail account lost about 3 USD, with half of the accounts falling between -36.64 USD and +0.40 USD. The proportion of accounts that did not trade again within 30 days after a loss is 15.2%, while after a profit it is 6.1%. The excluded automated accounts collectively made a profit of 246.8 million USD. The median position for profit-makers is 13.96 USD, while for loss-makers it is 10 USD.44.1% of traders concentrated over 60% of their activity on a single theme. Sports specialists account for 47% of all specialists, with a profit ratio of 25.1%, the lowest among all themes; technology and science specialists have a profit ratio of 41.2%. The report covers the entire history of the international platform and mentions that the platform will introduce taker fees in early 2026. At a price point of 50 cents, crypto market takers pay 1.75 USD for a position of 100 shares or 50 USD, accounting for approximately 3.5% of the invested capital.
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