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BTC $77,205.78 +0.12%
ETH $2,138.65 +1.19%
BNB $645.74 -0.15%
XRP $1.39 +0.00%
SOL $85.74 +0.80%
TRX $0.3556 +0.25%
DOGE $0.1050 -1.86%
ADA $0.2524 +0.54%
BCH $378.54 -6.10%
LINK $9.65 +1.59%
HYPE $48.33 +4.81%
AAVE $89.84 +1.10%
SUI $1.06 +2.96%
XLM $0.1477 -0.84%
ZEC $565.52 +6.53%

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Analysis: The potential agreement between the US and Iran, along with Strategy's increased investment in Bitcoin, may drive Bitcoin back above $80,000

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that after Bitcoin's failure to break above $82,000, it faced selling pressure and is once again testing the $76,000 level. In four days, the scale of long position liquidations reached $400 million, with prices dropping about 7% from recent highs. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the conditions for Bitcoin to return to $80,000 are accumulating, with three potential catalysts worth noting.First, Strategy (MSTR) invested $2 billion in Bitcoin over the past week, providing effective support amid market pressure. At the same time, the company repurchased $1.5 billion of convertible bonds maturing in 2029, and repaying part of its senior debt in advance helps reduce future dilution risks for existing MSTR shareholders, creating space for subsequent new stock issuance and continued Bitcoin purchases.Second, on a macro level, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.6%, a 16-month high, as investor confidence gradually shifts towards scarce assets. In 2026, $2 trillion in long-term debt will mature, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue purchasing bonds, which will further weaken the dollar's attractiveness. Gold saw a significant rise this January but has since given back most of its gains, while Bitcoin rebounded from $65,000 to $76,500 during the same period, indicating an increasing recognition of its safe-haven properties in the market.Third, if the situation in Iran sees a turnaround, risk appetite is expected to recover quickly. On Monday, Brent crude oil prices rose to $113, with negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz experiencing fluctuations; since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have cumulatively risen over 50%. If an agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, a drop in energy prices will alleviate inflationary pressures, and Bitcoin is expected to return above $80,000. Currently, U.S. stocks are close to historical highs, while Bitcoin is still down about 39% from its peak.

The bipartisan negotiations on the "CLARITY Act" have not reached an agreement, and the Democrats still have differences regarding the BRCA provisions

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, sources say that a bipartisan group of minority senators in the U.S. Senate held discussions last night regarding the CLARITY Act, attempting to push the Democrats to make concessions on at least two outstanding issues, but ultimately failed to reach an agreement.Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that both sides had reached consensus on "99% of the content" of the bill and expressed hope that the Democrats would continue to address the remaining issues after the bill passes committee review; otherwise, if a similar incident to FTX occurs in the future, "they can only blame themselves."Reports indicate that Democratic Senators Adam Schiff and Ruben Gallego have been pushing for a compromise on the ethical standards and conflict of interest clauses involving the president's family before the committee review, making it one of the conditions for supporting the bill.Additionally, some Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns about provisions related to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA). This provision aims to prohibit lawsuits against non-custodial software developers based on money transfer laws.Sources say that both sides have made substantial progress on ethical and conflict of interest issues, but disagreements over amendments to the BRCA ultimately led to the breakdown of negotiations. The market currently widely expects that this committee review will show clear partisanship.

Data: CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since 2023, analysts say the market may be entering an early bull market phase

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.
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