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first_img Contrary Partner Kyle Harrison: Venture capital is becoming like McDonald's

On October 31, Kyle Harrison, a general partner at the venture capital firm Contrary, stated that venture capital is experiencing a McDonaldization, where efficiency, measurability, predictability, and control lead to outcomes that are not intended by all parties. He believes the symptoms are scale combined with consensus, and the industry has split into different forms that share the same name. Harrison previously worked at Index Ventures, Coatue, and TCV, and founded the research platform Contrary Research. The article was published on the same day in his column.He cited PitchBook data indicating that in the first three quarters of 2026, a16z has raised $23.8 billion, accounting for over 20% of U.S. venture capital fundraising during the same period. During this time, U.S. venture capital funds raised a total of $108.5 billion, which is about 39% higher than the total for 2025. The number of first-time funds decreased from 479 in 2022 to 195 in 2025, with 81 so far this year; funds in their fourth round and beyond accounted for 88.2% of all fundraising, the highest share recorded by PitchBook.Harrison also wrote that the proportion of U.S. venture capital funding attributed to artificial intelligence rose from 39% in 2023 to 51% in 2024, 65% in 2025, and 82.7% so far in 2026. In the first quarter of this year, five companies—OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Waymo, and Databricks—captured 73.2% of U.S. deal value. Since 2023, non-AI venture capital in the U.S. has roughly maintained an annual range of $100 billion to $120 billion. He stated that once fund size dominates decision-making, every deal must fit the fund's scale.

Kyle predicts that Solana's progress will surpass any period in history, becoming the on-chain cornerstone for complex financial applications

Former Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani predicts that in the next 18 months, advancements in the microstructure of the Solana on-chain market will surpass any other period in cryptocurrency history. Notable expectations include:Alpenglow: A major upcoming consensus mechanism upgrade for Solana, representing one of the largest protocol-level changes in Solana's history.ACE (Application Controlled Execution): Application controlled execution is a key innovation in Solana's core roadmap.MCL (Multi-Concurrent Block Production): Future upgrades for Solana will allow multiple leaders to propose blocks simultaneously, significantly increasing throughput and reducing latency, while improving transaction inclusion times and censorship resistance.PropAMMs (Proprietary Automated Market Makers): Deployed privately by professional market makers/institutions, using real-time price oracles to update quotes and actively manage liquidity, typically not accepting permissionless deposits.Aggregators: Aggregators like Jupiter and Dflow aggregate liquidity from multiple DEXs, AMMs, PropAMMs, etc., to find the optimal execution path for users, providing the lowest slippage and best prices.Conditional liquidity: Prevents market makers from being front-run, allowing them to offer tighter spreads, ultimately resulting in better trade prices and deeper liquidity.Overall improvements to SVM and the scheduler: Including optimizations for compute units, asynchronous program execution (APE), scheduling algorithm upgrades, etc., making programs run faster, more resource-efficient, and supporting higher concurrency.
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