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BTC $65,794.21 -0.66%
ETH $1,946.44 +0.33%
BNB $620.16 +1.18%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $436.11 -2.86%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

si

Analyst: This Middle East crisis may be different; do not underestimate the risk of the situation getting out of control

According to Jin Shi reports, the situation has become more chaotic as Iran launched missiles at U.S. military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspended flights, and oil tankers carrying oil and other products halted passage through the Strait of Hormuz.Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager of the fixed income team at Hanya Investment, stated that the tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will reprice, shifting from geopolitical shocks to regime risk shocks and long-term conflicts, rather than just retaliatory actions, unless Iran expresses a willingness to negotiate.Analysts believe that a greater risk lies in the complacency of the market. The market has long assumed that the impact of the conflict will be limited and has dismissed comparisons of this conflict to the 1979 Iranian regime change.Barclays analysts noted that history strongly suggests not to chase prices when conflicts erupt, but rather to "sell the news." However, it is concerning that investors have now become accustomed to the "sell the news" mentality and may underestimate the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. It is advised not to buy any dips immediately. If the stock market corrects sufficiently, such as a drop of over 10% in the S&P 500, then a buying opportunity may arise. But that time is not now.

Analysis: The market value of Bitcoin assets dropped to approximately $545 million before the SpaceX IPO, and may face pressure for disclosure of gains and losses thereafter

According to CoinDesk, on-chain data platform Arkham Intelligence shows that SpaceX currently holds approximately 8,285 bitcoins in its Coinbase Prime custody account, valued at about $545 million at the latest prices, down about $235 million from an estimated $780 million three months ago. During this period, the company did not reduce its holdings.SpaceX plans to submit a confidential IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as early as March, aiming for a June listing, with a valuation potentially exceeding $1.75 trillion and a fundraising target of up to $50 billion. If successful, it would break the $29 billion IPO record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.Data shows that the company's bitcoin holdings have remained around 8,300 since early 2026, but the book value has fluctuated significantly due to the BTC price correction. At the end of 2021, its BTC holdings peaked at nearly $2 billion, followed by a decline during the 2022 bear market, fluctuating between $400 million and $800 million over the past two years.Market participants point out that once the S-1 filing is submitted, SpaceX will need to disclose its exposure to related crypto assets, and future financial reports may reflect the book profit and loss risks arising from bitcoin price fluctuations. Previously, Tesla had drawn market attention multiple times due to similar book value fluctuations. However, on-chain data does not indicate that SpaceX has engaged in active trading; unlike Tesla, which has conducted buy and sell operations, SpaceX appears to prefer a long-term holding strategy.
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