k33

Согласно отчету The Block, исследовательская организация K33 считает, что финансирование через привилегированные акции STRC помогло Strategy приобрести почти 100,000 биткойнов в первой половине 2026 года, но постоянные расходы на дивиденды могут компенсировать доходы. K33 оценивает, что STRC увеличивает годовые обязательства по дивидендам Strategy примерно на 725 миллионов долларов, что эквивалентно примерно 8740 BTC по цене 83,000 долларов за биткойн.Если исключить примерно 7.5 миллиардов долларов, привлеченных через STRC в первой половине года, и использовать долларовые резервы, выкуп STRC и большую часть расходов на дивиденды для покупки монет, то позиции Strategy будут лишь на 4947 BTC больше, чем в этом гипотетическом сценарии; согласно указанным годовым расходам, примерно за семь месяцев можно будет компенсировать эту разницу. K33 считает, что модель финансирования через привилегированные акции "является ошибкой" и более склонна к привлечению средств через обыкновенные акции, такие как ATM.

Согласно отчету K33 Research, правительство США на этой неделе перевело около 17,733 BTC на Coinbase Prime, в том числе 12,267 BTC, связанных с хакерским инцидентом Bitfinex. После перевода количество помеченных активов правительства снизилось с 324,527 до 306,795 BTC. Если учитывать непомеченные подозрительные правительственные кошельки, общее количество BTC, переведенных на Coinbase Prime, составляет около 21,500.Анализ показывает, что этот перевод, скорее всего, является операцией по хранению, а не продажей — Coinbase Prime с 2024 года является хранителем для Федерального бюро расследований США. Связанные с Bitfinex криптовалюты все еще находятся в процессе подачи заявлений на возмещение, министерство юстиции требует вернуть жертвам в форме BTC; запрет на продажу стратегических запасов биткойнов также охватывает только полностью конфискованные криптовалюты. Кроме того, около 1,200 BTC из FTX и HashFlare были одновременно переведены и могут быть выплачены жертвам в денежной форме через каналы компенсации.Стоит отметить, что около 15,000 BTC, связанных с требованиями к Bitfinex, были переведены в течение двух дней, что может указывать на то, что схема распределения или соответствующее решение находятся в процессе реализации.

Исследование K33, руководитель исследования Ветле Лунде анализирует, что за последние 7 дней общее количество открытых позиций по фьючерсам на BTC на CME и бессрочным контрактам сократилось на 49 000, что является наибольшим недельным снижением с октября 2025 года. В этот период волатильность рынка была низкой, а ставка финансирования продолжала снижаться.В отличие от предыдущих значительных сокращений позиций, сопровождаемых принудительной ликвидацией, этот раунд снижения кредитного плеча ближе к активному фиксированию прибыли, общее настроение на рынке стало более рациональным.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, K33 Research опубликовали, что на прошлой неделе биткойн продолжал колебаться в узком диапазоне от 60,000 до 66,000 долларов. Средний дневной объем спотовых торгов в июле составил всего около 2,2 миллиарда долларов, открытые контракты CME близки к многолетнему минимуму, а открытый интерес по бессрочным контрактам застопорился на уровне около 300,000 биткойнов.Объем торгов биткойном в июле достиг самого низкого уровня с ноября 2023 года.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, исследовательская компания в области криптовалют K33 заявила, что объем Bitcoin, удерживаемый долгосрочными держателями, достиг исторического максимума, что указывает на то, что медвежий рынок может близиться к концу. K33 отметила, что активность по повторной активации старых монет в 2026 году значительно снизилась: по состоянию на 6 июня было повторно активировано всего 218,421 Bitcoin, что показывает, что давление на продажу в сети значительно ослабло; для сравнения, в 2024 году за аналогичный период было повторно активировано 1,180,000 Bitcoin. K33 считает, что снижение активности старых монет указывает на снижение желания долгосрочных держателей продавать, и терпеливые участники продолжают поглощать предложение.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, согласно отчету The Block, последний отчет K33 показывает, что в настоящее время более 50% обращающегося предложения биткойнов находится в состоянии убытка, что значительно увеличилось с 30% месяц назад.Руководитель исследований K33 Ветле Лунде отметил, что хотя каждый раз, когда уровень убытка превышает 50%, биткойн обычно достигает дна в течение нескольких недель (часто после последнего падения), но в течение года после появления этого сигнала рост BTC составляет от 69% до 359%. В настоящее время биткойн также коснулся 200-недельной скользящей средней и сопровождается "крайним страхом", что соответствует историческим характеристикам дна.K33 сохраняет мнение, что 60,000 долларов может быть низким уровнем этого цикла или, по крайней мере, очень привлекательной зоной для долгосрочного накопления.

According to CoinDesk, K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that as funds chase AI stocks, Bitcoin faces a "volatile summer." The weakness in Bitcoin reflects a decrease in institutional demand, significant outflows from ETFs, and increasing fragility in the derivatives market. The market generally believes that the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin is too high against the backdrop of soaring AI-related assets. There are clear signs of capital diversion. Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to set new highs.Investors are also paying attention to potential IPOs from companies like SpaceX and Anthropic, further diverting funds from the crypto market. Over the past three weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have reduced their holdings by 62,794 BTC, marking the second-largest consecutive outflow on record. K33 previously believed that Bitcoin's drop to around $60,000 in February could be the largest pullback of this cycle, but now warns that leveraged long positions are accumulating in a weakening market, posing potential selling pressure. Lunde stated that external capital is unwilling to enter, and existing holders are reducing their exposure, suggesting that the market may face a volatile summer.

According to CoinDesk, K33 Research stated in a report that this round of the Bitcoin bear market is different, as exceptionally pessimistic traders have limited the downside. Bitcoin traders remain in a defensive stance, reducing the risk of a leveraged-driven collapse. Research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that the current slow bottoming process has not replicated the rapid reversals seen after bear market rebounds in previous cycles, and derivative data instead points to extreme pessimism.The 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin has been negative for 81 consecutive days, nearing the longest historical record. The annualized basis for CME Bitcoin futures has dropped below 2.5%, which is an extremely cautious level. However, Bitcoin derivative open interest remains high, and further price weakness could trigger volatility. K33 maintains its fundamental judgment, believing that Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in February could be the largest pullback of this round.

According to Theblock, K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has mainly fluctuated between $60,000 and $75,000, indicating that the trading volume of exchange-traded products and the behavior of long-term holders are stabilizing. He described this price trend as "typically associated with market bottoms" and suggested that the price range just above $70,000 may be attractive to medium- to long-term investors.According to Lunde, since late February, the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs has slightly turned positive, indicating that the sell-off wave since the historical high in October may be coming to an end. He stated that the previous capital outflow was due to profit-taking when the Bitcoin price fell below the investors' cost price, creating a supply-demand feedback loop. However, as prices fell, the motivation to sell weakened, and demand began to stabilize.

According to Theblock, research firm K33 stated that Strategy increasingly relies on selling its STRC perpetual preferred shares to raise funds for accumulating Bitcoin, which is introducing structural risks related to market sentiment and pricing dynamics.It is reported that of the $1.57 billion in Bitcoin acquired by Strategy on Monday, approximately $1.18 billion came from the market sale of STRC, while the sale of Class A common stock amounted to $396 million.K33 indicated that this model requires the price of STRC to be maintained near the target price, and that the trading price of Strategy's equity is above its net asset value. These conditions are largely driven by market sentiment and may deteriorate simultaneously during market weakness.

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.

According to market news, Norwegian listed company K33 has announced the launch of a crypto loan service backed by Bitcoin and Ethereum, initially open to a select group of qualified clients, with loans issued in stablecoins such as USDC.K33 stated that it will also include its own holdings of Bitcoin in the service operation, creating a revenue-generating digital asset solution.

K33 Research released the 2025 Annual Report on the Cryptocurrency Market, indicating that despite Bitcoin's fundamentals reaching an all-time high, its price performance lags behind other major asset classes.The report shows that the U.S. government has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, while national pension funds in Abu Dhabi and Luxembourg allocate 1-3% of their funds to invest in Bitcoin. Harvard University has also made similar allocations in its substantial endowment fund. Meanwhile, since January 2024, over 20% of Bitcoin UTXOs that are more than two years old have been activated, indicating a large-scale sell-off by early holders. Analysts believe this is both a natural behavior of profit-taking and a reflection of the response to Bitcoin's gradual integration into the traditional financial system. Despite market adjustments, the report holds a "constructively bullish" view for 2026, suggesting that the current price divergence from fundamentals creates investment opportunities, especially in the context of a new U.S. government potentially adopting a more accommodative monetary policy.

The K33 Research report titled "2025 Annual Review" indicates that 2025 will be a year where the fundamentals and price performance of cryptocurrencies are severely disconnected. Despite the U.S. establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, the Trump administration promoting the inclusion of digital assets in 401(k) plans through executive orders, and a regulatory shift brought about by changes in SEC leadership, Bitcoin underperformed mainstream assets like U.S. stocks and gold due to large-scale profit-taking by early holders (OGs) and adjustments in market structure, all while volatility hit historic lows.K33 Research holds a constructive bullish outlook for 2026, predicting that Bitcoin will outperform stock indices and gold, believing that the positive effects of regulatory victories will outweigh the impacts of capital allocation. On a macro level, it is expected that Trump will appoint a dovish Federal Reserve chair to replace tightening policies with expansionary ones, creating an "abundant" environment that will benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. In terms of regulation, the "Clarity Act" is expected to pass in the first quarter of 2026, with broader cryptocurrency legislation also anticipated to be signed at the beginning of the year.The institutional side is set to explode: Morgan Stanley plans to allow advisors to allocate 0-4% of Bitcoin ETFs for clients starting January 1, 2026, and E*Trade's retail crypto trading is expected to launch in the first half of 2026. In terms of specific data predictions, net inflows into ETFs in 2026 are expected to exceed those of 2025; on the corporate finance side, it is predicted that MicroStrategy will not sell its Bitcoin (although it may be removed from the MSCI index), with the overall corporate finance net absorption expected to be 150,000 BTC, a decrease of 330,000 BTC year-on-year; supply-side predictions suggest that the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years will end its downward trend, rebounding to over 12.16 million BTC by the end of the year, with early selling pressure dissipating and turning into net buyer demand.Additionally, with the opening of 401(k) plans, the market will see a huge potential buying demand based on different allocation weights of 1% to 5%.

According to CoinDesk, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that as the year-end approaches, Bitcoin may benefit from asset managers adjusting their portfolios to maintain established asset allocation ratios, given that Bitcoin has underperformed compared to other asset classes this quarter. Earlier this year, Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 in the first quarter, then began to rise in the second quarter.In contrast, when Bitcoin outperformed stocks in the second quarter, it saw a decline at the beginning of the third quarter. So far, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by as much as 26% in the fourth quarter, indicating that a significant rebalancing is imminent. Lunde mentioned that fund managers with established Bitcoin allocation targets may adjust their positions before the end of the year, potentially leading to substantial inflows on the last trading day of this year and early January of next year.He also noted that despite price stabilization, market participants remain reluctant to take on new risks. Derivatives trading activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is nearing annual lows, with Bitcoin futures open interest at about 124,000 contracts; the funding rates in the perpetual contract market are close to neutral, and there are small changes in open interest, indicating a lack of short-term directional confidence. Last week, spot cryptocurrency trading volume dropped by 12%, further confirming low trader participation as the year-end approaches.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that although the rebound after last week's flash crash lost momentum on Tuesday, the current decline is a constructive setup, with Bitcoin stabilizing after a significant leverage reset. In his report on Tuesday, he stated that after recent leverage liquidations, he holds a constructive optimism towards BTC, but patience is required.He noted that traders are recovering from forced sell-offs, and short-term liquidity may still remain low, but such leverage liquidations often indicate a market bottom. He also stated, "The current price level is very attractive for increasing BTC spot positions, as leverage has been significantly cleared. Coupled with a favorable backdrop including expectations of loose policies, high institutional demand, and ETF-related catalysts, the current situation is conducive to gradually accumulating Bitcoin."

ChainCatcher news, according to official sources, K33 announced a strategic increase of 15 bitcoins at a cost of 16 million Swedish kronor. Currently, the total holdings on the balance sheet amount to 141 BTC, with an average purchase price of 1,114,859 Swedish kronor per bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, K33 research director Vetle Lunde warned in the latest report that Bitcoin's recent weak performance may continue. The sharp rise in leverage combined with a large influx of funds into Ethereum puts Bitcoin under further correction pressure.The report shows that the nominal open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has surged to its highest level in two years, surpassing 310,000 BTC (approximately $34 billion). In just the past two months, an additional 41,607 BTC has been added, with a spike of 13,472 BTC over the last weekend, which may indicate an impending market turning point.Lunde's analysis indicates that the surge in open interest, coupled with the annualized funding rate jumping from 3% to nearly 11%, reflects an overly aggressive long position during a price consolidation phase. This accumulation of leverage is similar to situations before significant market corrections in the past, and investors should remain vigilant.

ChainCatcher news, according to NLNico, the Bitcoin asset management company K33 has increased its holdings by 5 bitcoins, bringing its total to 126 bitcoins.

ChainCatcher news, according to the official announcement, the Bitcoin asset management company K33 has increased its holdings by 50 Bitcoins, now totaling 85 Bitcoins.K33 recently launched a Bitcoin financial strategy and announced the successful completion of a share issuance to raise funds to purchase up to 1,000 Bitcoins.