complicate

According to Jinshi reports, the market has currently priced in a probability of over 30% for interest rate hikes before December. After the unexpectedly strong PPI data in the U.S. for April, the market believes it will be almost more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify any rate cuts this year.The April PPI rose by 1.4%, significantly higher than the general expectation of 0.5% from economists, indicating that inflationary pressures are stronger than expected and reinforcing the trend of the market repricing the interest rate path.

According to Jinshi News, strategists at TD Securities stated in a report that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will become "complicated." They pointed out that if WTI crude oil prices rise by 25%, it would roughly correspond to an overall CPI increase of about 0.5 percentage points. The strategists mentioned that if inflation remains sticky and economic growth is resilient, it may delay the Fed's easing pace, but the threshold for rate hikes remains high. LSEG data shows that the money market currently expects the Fed to cut rates by 41 basis points this year.

Mitsubishi UFJ stated that the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging that the labor market is gradually cooling down, and Powell also emphasized the significant downside risks facing the labor market.Regarding inflation, the Federal Reserve pointed out that if no new tariffs are imposed, goods inflation may peak in the first quarter of 2026, but the risks of persistent inflation still exist. Powell signaled that rate hikes are not a baseline expectation, and there are divergences among FOMC members between maintaining rates and cutting rates.The latest released median dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once in 2026, a stance that is clearly more hawkish than the market's expectation of about 55 basis points (or slightly more than two rate cuts). Powell also emphasized that the Federal Reserve is currently "in a favorable position" to patiently observe the development of the U.S. economic situation.Looking ahead, the policy outlook for the second half of next year may become complicated due to changes in the Federal Reserve leadership, increasing market uncertainty. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that stripping the Federal Reserve of the power to pay interest would make interest rate control very complicated.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill on Monday rare criticized President Trump and his family's cryptocurrency business activities, stating that these actions have made the work of drafting laws for the emerging digital asset industry "more complicated." Hill specifically pointed out the meme coin and stablecoin projects launched by Trump, saying they have a negative impact on lawmakers' work. Hill: "These projects make our job more complicated."On Monday, Hill stated that the House Financial Services Committee will review the draft of the "Stablecoin Act" on Wednesday and will soon discuss a new version of the Market Structure Act. In the Senate, the bipartisan "GENIUS Act," which received support with a vote of 18 to 6, has been submitted for a full vote. However, Trump's business activities have provided Democrats with reasons to oppose. Last week, Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the USD1 stablecoin supported by Trump as a "scam" and attempted to link the project to the legislative process. She stated, "Congress should amend the stablecoin bill under consideration to prevent Trump and Musk from controlling people's money."

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the NFT trading platform Magic Eden launched the token ME on December 10, and its unconventional claiming process has sparked widespread controversy in the industry. Users must download the Magic Eden exclusive wallet and choose to import their existing wallet private key or create a new wallet linked to the original wallet, a practice considered to violate industry security best practices.Security expert Ogle pointed out that the Magic Eden wallet backs up users' private keys and recovery phrases within the app, and there is no clear way to delete this information, which poses serious security risks. Additionally, addresses created in the Magic Eden wallet cannot be imported into mainstream wallets like Phantom using the standard 12-word recovery phrase, requiring an extra private key import operation, which increases the risk of users' assets being stolen.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims decreased last week, indicating that despite a cooling job market, the U.S. economy has avoided large-scale layoffs. The number of continuing unemployment claims reached its highest level in three years.Since the beginning of this year, labor market data has shown mixed signals, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as it balances employment and inflation targets.

ChainCatcher news, Canadian benchmark bond yields are rising in tandem with U.S. Treasury trends, as financial markets bet that Trump will reapply inflationary pressure. The upward movement in yields is bound to complicate the Bank of Canada's efforts to revive the economy and prevent inflation from slowing too quickly.So far, the Bank of Canada has been the most aggressive in easing policies among the G7 central banks this year. Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at foreign exchange firm Corpay, said, "As the risks of rising import prices begin to materialize, the Bank of Canada is likely to slow the pace of easing." Measures by the Trump administration that could exacerbate inflation include imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods and significant tax cuts that could lead to an expanded deficit. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Wylie Tollette, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, believes that "if inflation in the housing sector persists, then a 50 basis point rate cut could actually accelerate or amplify this situation." He expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next week and added that this election could complicate the prospects for significant rate cuts. Trump previously stated that a Fed rate cut would help Harris become the incumbent vice president, "even though they know they shouldn't do that."Wylie Tollette stated, "The Fed's path is that they want to do the right thing for the economy, and I don't think they want to be seen as benefiting the incumbent candidate through more aggressive rate cuts."

ChainCatcher news, investment bank TD Cowen stated on Monday that the recent Supreme Court ruling overturning the Chevron principle may complicate cryptocurrency legislation efforts.The report stated: After the Supreme Court's action, there is a general belief that the ruling is favorable to the cryptocurrency industry. We partially agree with this view, as it will help the cryptocurrency industry challenge the rules and enforcement of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in the future. However, this does not change any past rulings nor will it reconsider previous decisions.The report argues that a bigger question is what this decision means for lawmakers hoping to enact legislation to regulate the industry and stablecoins. Analysts stated, "We are discussing details that are typically not seen in legislation, such as what happens when retail investors participate in staking programs on trading platforms, or how AML/BSA controls would apply if tokens have previously hidden their origins through mixers. Both sides are no longer willing to heed the opinions of regulators, as the courts may now conduct secondary reviews of these decisions."

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, the far-right party National Rally (RN) is leading in the first round of voting in the French elections held on Sunday. The election results may lead to a more polarized new parliament in France between the left and the right, making domestic policy-making, including cryptocurrency policy, uncertain and difficult. Mark Foster, the EU policy head of the Crypto Council for Innovation, stated that this will limit the president's power on the international and European stage.In addition, France has made significant progress in the cryptocurrency sector, registering 74 cryptocurrency companies last year, with expectations that this number will increase to 100. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) will also come into full effect by the end of the year, and France's current cryptocurrency regulations will provide a first-mover advantage for the implementation of MiCA.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Bloomberg, a mid-term report released by the examiner Shoba Pillay of the bankrupt crypto lending platform Celsius Network details the deficiencies in accounting controls and operations related to two products that the company used to hold digital assets for customers, raising questions about whether and how these users will be compensated.The report states that the "Withhold" and "Custody" products both allow users to retain ownership while entrusting their digital currencies to the lender for safekeeping. However, Celsius launched the "Custody" program without sufficient operational controls and technical infrastructure. As a result, the platform was overfunded by $50.5 million on June 10. On June 24, the product was underfunded by $24 million.Additionally, the "Withhold" product failed to separate various assets associated with accounts from liabilities. Due to the lack of separation between accounts and assets, users found it difficult to track their own assets. (Bloomberg)