Does the concentrated outbreak of altcoins indicate that the cryptocurrency market has peaked?

This article is from ChainNews, author: Secrets, compiled by: Li Ke.

What is Altseason?

Altseason refers to the period when altcoins surge. Some believe this is just a "normal cryptocurrency bull market," but in my view, it is a special phenomenon at the end of the altcoin bubble, during which one can achieve maximum returns in the shortest time, and the market reaches a frenzied peak, allowing for bold cashing out.

Where are we now?

In the last cycle of cryptocurrencies, there were two altseason periods, one in December 2017 and another in March 2018. They lasted about a month or even shorter.

I believe we may currently be in the first altseason of this cycle, which means that every time the price rises to the peak of a parabola, it is an excellent opportunity for arbitrage.

What will happen next?

If we are experiencing the first altseason of this cycle, the market will then undergo a significant correction, followed by a recovery, and after Bitcoin peaks, we will see the final altseason.

How to respond to altcoin surges?

Will we encounter such an altseason before the next major market adjustment? No one knows the answer. However, the current market conditions are relatively favorable, and my strategy is to take a small profit on the way to altseason. If we do encounter an altseason, I will boldly arbitrage to lock in profits.

About my strategy

I am currently shifting my focus from short-term profits to long-term profits. If the market is about to undergo an adjustment, I will continue to hold until the second, larger bubble (altseason) of this cycle appears.

Illustration of the 2017/18 Two Altseason Periods

If you want to delve deeper into the patterns of the two altseason periods that occurred in the last cycle of 2017/18, please refer to the analysis below:

The two altseason periods of 2017/18 (yellow bars)

1. In the previous cycle, before each of the two altseason periods, Bitcoin experienced a tenfold increase, accompanied by a large influx of new investors, during which Bitcoin underwent significant volatility and sideways consolidation.
2. When Bitcoin's price reached its third historical peak in March 2018, altcoins surged densely, with most altcoins having about a two-week window for high-point arbitrage.
3. Altcoins are likely to surge during significant volatility in ETH and BTC.
4. Two-thirds of altcoins reached their highest prices during the first altseason.
5. At the last parabola peak of the K-line before the bear market began, altcoins are likely to explode (this was the second and final altseason of the last cycle), known as the last hurrah.
6. The second altseason of the last cycle lasted about two months, but the most concentrated surge lasted only about one month (March 2018).

Summary

• When Bitcoin reaches the parabola peak of the K-line + Ethereum's price reaches the parabola peak = altseason.
• A cycle may have two altseason periods.
• I believe we may currently be in the first altseason of this cycle, after which the market will undergo a correction, then recover until it breaks new highs, reaching a peak, at which point we will welcome the second altseason, which will also be the final hurrah of this round.