How much is Blast really worth?

Original source: Olimpio X account

Author: Olimpio

Compiled by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

The so-called token economics is outdated. With an expected 1 billion gold points and 100 trillion regular points, how much is it really worth?

What will be the BLAST FDV, gold point valuation, and airdrop estimates?

To recap: Blast announced a total token supply of 100 billion, with 17% allocated for S1 airdrops, 7% for gold points, 7% for regular points, and 3% for Blur farmers.

Thus, gold point holders will receive 7 billion BLAST tokens, and the same goes for regular point holders.

We still do not know the official supply of regular and gold points, but some estimate that the gold points are between 80 million and 100 million. (Including referrals)

In a pessimistic scenario, we assume the supply of gold points is 100 million.

Then each gold point is equivalent to 70 BLAST.

Blast has shown the relationship between gold points and regular points, where 20,483 gold points are equivalent to 2,224,255,462 regular points.

This means that 1 gold point is equivalent to 108,590 regular points.

If we set the total amount of gold points to 100 million, we can estimate the total supply of regular points to be 10.8 trillion.

Regular points can earn 7 billion tokens, so each regular point is approximately 0.00064463 BLAST, meaning 100,000 regular points = 64.46 BLAST.

Now we (pessimistically) estimate that 1 gold point = 70 BLAST, and 100,000 regular points = 65 BLAST, so how much is BLAST worth?

Comparing FDV with leading L2s, we can see that if BLAST outperforms competitors at a $10 billion FDV, the price per token will be $0.1.

Arbitrum is the largest L2 with the highest TVL and FDV. If BLAST has the same FDV, the price per token will be $0.083.

OP follows closely, with an FDV of $7.6 billion, rather than a TVL of $678 million. If BLAST has the same FDV, the price per token would be $0.076.

BLAST gold point airdrop price estimates:

Optimistic: 100 gold points = $700

Moderate: 100 gold points = $350

Pessimistic: 100 gold points = $140

Optimistic: 10 million regular points = $650

Moderate: 100 gold points = $325

Pessimistic: 100 gold points = $130

Remember, this is just for fun; we are iterating scenarios based on guesses.

1. We are uncertain about the total supply of gold points.

2. We do not know how the market will price its competition.

3. We do not know if there is a relationship between the two.

This is my perspective on the airdrop.

Overall (excluding uncertain market conditions), I think this has been executed well. No talk of witches. Smaller wallets and users have also received gold points.