SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240716): Go ETF Go

2024-07-17 10:14:48

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For BTC, positive news from traditional markets has been continuously emerging in the past 24 hours. Although Mentougou has only conducted a small test, traders in the options market always show a proactive stance.

For BTC, positive news from traditional markets has continued to emerge over the past 24 hours. For example, Trump has chosen to support cryptocurrency-friendly Senator J.D. Vance as his presidential campaign partner; BlackRock CEO Larry Fink also acknowledged Bitcoin's financial value in an interview, changing his previous skeptical stance; ETF flows are still ongoing, with approximately $300 million flowing into the digital currency market during the day. However, as the coin price challenged the $65,000 high amid cheers from the community, according to Arkham data, a MtGox wallet address transferred out 0.021 Bitcoin, possibly for a transfer test. This sudden shift in market sentiment caused the coin price to briefly drop below $62,500, but after a moment of calm, it rebounded back to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, around the $63,500 position.

Source: TradingView

Although MtGox only conducted a small test, traders in the options market always show a proactive stance, pricing in the potential uncertainty of future sell-offs in advance, causing BTC's mid-to-long-term implied volatility (IV) to rise rapidly by 4% Vol, narrowing the gap with ETH.

Source: SignalPlus

From the perspective of ETH, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed the approval dates for multiple spot Ethereum applications from July 18 to July 23, continuing the trend of previous delays. Nevertheless, the community remains optimistic, believing that regulatory acceptance of crypto products has improved and anticipating a significant influx of funds into the digital currency market. As a result, the IV for ETH options expiring at the end of July and early August has risen by about 2+%, with the large market seeing options strategies represented by the 26 JUL 24 3600/3800 Long Call Spread (3100 ETH per leg) and Buy 2 Aug 3700-C vs Sell 30 Aug 24 4000-C (7375 ETH per leg), expressing a positive attitude towards short-term price upside.