Whether Trump or Harris wins, can Bitcoin rise?

Author: BlockBeats

After dawn, history will arrive.

The fate of Bitcoin and the U.S. presidential election seems more intertwined than ever. Since the end of October, Trump's winning probability on major prediction platforms has been declining, while Bitcoin has been fluctuating continuously. As the "hero" of the crypto world and the "Bitcoin President," what kind of explosion in Bitcoin's price can we expect if Trump wins? And what will the crypto world and Bitcoin look like if he loses?

When soldiers come, we will block them; when water comes, we will cover it with soil. On the eve of the election, let's take a look at the predictions from top traders and prepare a comprehensive trading strategy.

What do traders think about Bitcoin's future?

PlanB: BTC expected to reach $1 million by the end of 2025

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for its unique model of asset scarcity and price relationship. His analysis focuses on the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin's value, especially the price fluctuations after halving events. His latest prediction indicates that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may experience an unprecedented price surge. PlanB illustrates the price development direction of Bitcoin under different market scenarios by constructing a series of monthly timelines.

In a prediction made a few months ago, PlanB provided specific figures based on his S2F model:

October: Classic surge month, BTC reaches $70,000. PlanB predicts that Bitcoin's price will experience a strong rise in October. He believes that the surge in Bitcoin may be driven by increased volatility in the global market and a recovery in investor confidence, which are also points in history where Bitcoin has shown significant price surges.

November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000. If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes Bitcoin will reach a significant turning point. He points out that Trump's presidency may bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, ending the current "war" against cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially as the policies of regulatory officials like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren will allow Bitcoin's price to rise directly to $100,000.

December: Massive inflow of ETF funds, Bitcoin skyrockets to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear obstacles for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and a large amount of funds is expected to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents acceptance and recognition from mainstream financial markets and investor trust, further pushing Bitcoin's price to $150,000.

January 2025: Crypto industry returns to the U.S., Bitcoin rises to $200,000. With the Trump administration's open policies towards cryptocurrencies, many crypto companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the U.S. PlanB expects this to create significant market demand, pushing Bitcoin's price to $200,000.

February 2025: "Power Law" team takes profits, price falls back to $150,000. The correction in February is a prediction of adjustments in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that profit-taking by investors will lead to a brief drop in Bitcoin to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next phase of growth.

March to May 2025: Globalization trend of Bitcoin, price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB anticipates that countries like Bhutan, Argentina, and Dubai will successively adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and in April, under Trump's push, the U.S. will also initiate a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Following this, in May, he believes other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, further pushing Bitcoin to $500,000.

June 2025: AI boosts, price reaches $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that AI begins to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He expects that with AI's participation in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive prices up, allowing Bitcoin to break through $600,000.

July to December 2025: FOMO fades, price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to fade, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin will not only become a mainstream asset reserve but also an essential allocation for global investors.

2026-2027: Market adjustment and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects Bitcoin's price to pull back from $1 million to $500,000, entering a distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with Bitcoin's price expected to drop to $200,000.

PlanB concluded that the key to this prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He pointed out that scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin's price is expected to experience leapfrog growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to solidify its position as "digital gold" among global investors.

The key to PlanB's prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He pointed out that investors favor scarcity, and there are currently three main options for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market cap $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market cap $20 trillion), or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market cap $1 trillion). Therefore, Bitcoin's scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold.

PlanB proposed an opposite scenario, stating that if Harris wins, he believes this would represent "the end of Western civilization" and further exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects the crypto industry to be further pressured under the regulation of Gensler and Warren, continuing more suffocating actions, and may even face stricter tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasized that Bitcoin does not rely on a specific regulatory environment, and its value drive will still come from the global demand for scarcity.

Alex Krüger: Spot BTC dominates on election night

Argentinian economist, trader, and consultant Alex Krüger believes that the election results will directly affect Bitcoin's price direction:

Trump wins: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $90,000. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin's price will quickly surge to $90,000 before the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin's price will "soar rapidly," as the market has partially anticipated the favorable impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price undervaluation, and the market's rapid response will be reflected shortly after the news is confirmed.

Harris wins: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $65,000. If Harris wins the election, Bitcoin is expected to initially decline slightly before rising, ultimately possibly settling around $65,000. Krüger assesses the probability of this scenario at 45% and points out that Harris's presidency may mean a continuation of existing policies. The market volatility in this scenario is more uncertain, but Krüger believes Bitcoin's price still has support and may continue to rise after fluctuations, although the extent will not match the expectations if Trump is elected.

Krüger emphasized the importance of timing, especially for investors engaged in leveraged operations. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price will rise rapidly, while in the case of Harris's victory, the price trend may experience a longer period of volatility. Krüger's personal strategy is to hold unleveraged positions (mainly in Bitcoin and some tech stocks like Nvidia), and he believes that the focus should be on spot holdings to avoid the volatility risks brought by high leverage.

At the same time, Krüger stated that regardless of the election results, he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, provided there is no "blue sweep"—that is, the Democrats winning both the presidency and both houses of Congress. He pointed out that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, as Bitcoin's price is highly correlated with U.S. stock indices. Especially in the scenario of Trump's victory, he expects friendlier cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures to drive the stock market higher, thereby benefiting Bitcoin.

Currently, Krüger points out that the market has partially priced in Trump's victory, but based on various betting data and election models, Trump's winning probability remains between 50% and 63%. This suspenseful setup in the election makes the market not fully digest the possibility of victory, bringing greater "unexpected" impacts to the election results. Regarding the strategy on election night, Krüger stated that he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot and take long positions if Trump wins, such as increasing holdings in Solana (SOL).

The Giver: Mid-term decline after the election

The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in private equity investment in special situations, providing a different perspective. Compared to Krüger and PlanB, The Giver's strategy is more conservative and focuses on the short term. He believes that the Bitcoin rise driven by the election is more of a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may face a decline adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is as follows:

The driving force behind this Bitcoin rise comes from event-driven "non-sticky" buyers, namely some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than due to an overall trend. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for the long term, and once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, this capital lacks "stickiness," and Bitcoin's price may face selling pressure after the election.

The underperformance of altcoins is related to Bitcoin's concentration. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin and has not widely flowed into altcoins, leading to the underperformance of altcoins. This indicates that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool rather than a positive for the entire crypto market.

The Giver expects that in the coming week, Bitcoin's open contracts and positions will remain crowded, even reaching new highs. He points out that this "right-side effect" may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin's price, but limited by the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is unlikely to last into the next year. This short-term effect increases the likelihood of Bitcoin's price peaking before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is insufficient to support a long-term upward trend.

Based on this judgment, The Giver proposed a relatively aggressive investment strategy: based on the current market environment, he suggests going long on Bitcoin and shorting other mainstream coins and altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before election day, but regardless of who wins, a mid-term decline will ultimately occur after the results are announced.

Markus: Long BTC and short SOL hedging strategy

Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research, who gained rapid popularity in the investment community for his highly accurate prediction of Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap a few months ago.

Markus's latest analysis is based on the latest signal model from 10X Research, which has an accuracy rate of 73% to 87%, typically realized within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if Bitcoin's price continues along historical trends, it may rise 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, Bitcoin's price may exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of about $140,000 by April 29, 2025.

Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election outcomes on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also see similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will bring a more favorable policy environment for cryptocurrencies, likely driving the market up.

If Harris wins, Bitcoin's decline is expected to be around 9%. At the same time, the tightening of the Democratic regulatory policy may affect the approval process of other cryptocurrency ETFs. For example, the Solana ETF submitted by 3iQ Digital may face delays or even rejection due to the Harris administration's ascendance. The increased difficulty in approving the Solana ETF will further impact Solana's market demand and price performance. Therefore, Markus predicts Solana's decline may exceed that of Bitcoin, reaching around 15%.

In this scenario, Markus's suggested strategy is to "go long on Bitcoin and short Solana" to hedge against the uncertainties brought by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.

In the case of disputed election results or a short-term decline in Bitcoin due to Harris's victory, Markus emphasized that Bitcoin may still exhibit strong resilience against declines, thus suggesting that investors seize the buying window after Bitcoin's short-term drop.

From the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders increased in October, while the holdings of long-term holders decreased. This dynamic typically appears at important price breakthrough points. The total open contracts in the Bitcoin options market have surged to $22.5 billion in 2024, reflecting the market's heightened bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin. Bitcoin's 25 Delta skew is at the lower end of the annual range (-8% to -10%), indicating strong bullish sentiment.

Thielen also pays special attention to the impact of MicroStrategy's stock performance on Bitcoin's price. He pointed out that MicroStrategy's stock has risen 33% since October, and its surge has had a "tail effect" on Bitcoin's price. The large number of short positions being covered has further boosted the market's bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered Analyst: If Trump wins, BTC will rise to $125,000 by year-end

According to a Cointelegraph report on October 25, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the election in November, Bitcoin's price could rise to $125,000 by year-end.

Kendrick's model shows that on election day (November 5), Bitcoin may stabilize around $73,000. In the case of Trump's victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to immediately rise by about 4%, with a further increase of 10% in the following days, driven by rising market confidence and a more relaxed regulatory environment.

If Harris is elected president, Kendrick's expectations are relatively conservative, predicting that Bitcoin may face selling pressure in the short term but is expected to stabilize around $75,000 by year-end.

Meanwhile, another brokerage firm, Bernstein, noted in its research report that if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs later this year, with prices potentially hitting $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may anticipate increased regulation, and BTC prices may fluctuate back to the range of $30,000 to $40,000.

Who becomes president, how will other assets be affected?

Overall, if Harris wins, bullish assets include gold, oil, copper, and the dollar; stocks (including A-shares and U.S. stocks) and Bitcoin (BTC) may face pressure in the short term, while U.S. Treasuries may show a short-term bearish and long-term bullish trend. At the same time, cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL) may also face downward pressure under stricter regulatory expectations.

If Trump wins, the trading mechanisms become more complex. Bullish asset classes include gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, while U.S. stocks and the dollar may show short-term increases but a mid-term correction trend. A-shares may show short-term bearish and long-term bullish trends, while oil, U.S. Treasuries, and copper may be negatively impacted to some extent. Assets like Solana, which are more closely related to traditional crypto regulation, are expected to benefit from policy support, but their gains may be slightly less than Bitcoin's.

U.S. Stocks

If Trump wins, small-cap stocks and specific industries are expected to benefit, particularly traditional energy, firearms manufacturing, private prison operators, and small retailers. Due to Trump's preference for low taxes and reduced regulation, especially positively impacting domestic manufacturing, corporate tax cuts and his support for the energy and mining industries may drive small-cap stocks up. The Russell 2000 index (small-cap benchmark) has already begun to reflect this expectation, rising about 4% since early October.

If Harris is elected, the market tends to focus on her policies to expand healthcare and increase Medicaid. Stocks in the healthcare sector may receive a boost, but overall, U.S. stocks may face pressure. Additionally, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries may strengthen in the short term, as the market remains cautious about potential regulatory and corporate tax policies, which may suppress overall stock market confidence.

Dollar and Foreign Exchange Market

The expectation of Trump's victory has already manifested in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Mexican peso, which is considered one of the currencies most affected by Trump's immigration policies. Market volatility has also significantly increased as Trump's election prospects have risen, with the MSCI Latin America Currency Index dropping over 3%, while the dollar strengthened significantly after Trump's statements on tariffs on Mexican imports.

If Harris wins, the dollar may maintain relative strength in the short term, especially with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a steady approach in interest rate decisions. If economic policies promote long-term fiscal stimulus, the dollar's mid-term volatility may remain moderate, and pressure on emerging market currencies like those in Latin America may decrease.

Oil and Copper

If Trump wins, the traditional energy sector (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trump's supportive policies. Trump's energy policies tend to reduce regulation and support domestic extraction and fossil fuel use, which will positively impact related markets.

Harris, on the other hand, tends to adopt stricter policies on environmental and climate issues, which may exert some medium- to long-term pressure on oil. Metals like copper may benefit from the expected demand growth brought about by green infrastructure construction, but the market needs to remain vigilant about potential supply chain pressures from tax policies and environmental regulations.

U.S. Treasuries

Trump's victory is a short-term positive for U.S. Treasuries. In the interest rate and bond markets, market analysts indicate that smart money has begun to focus on the bond market. U.S. Treasury yields may rise due to expectations of Trump's victory, while in the long term, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, U.S. Treasuries may face greater selling pressure.

However, if Harris wins, the U.S. Treasury market may show a "short-term bearish and long-term bullish" trend. Short-term selling pressure may intensify due to interest rate expectations or funds shifting towards risk assets, but in the long term, expectations of lower inflation may support bond demand.

Gold

As the most traditional inflation hedge, gold seems likely to continue rising regardless of who wins. Analysts generally believe that the U.S. government's debt problem will continue to expand and will dilute the debt through inflation, making gold and Bitcoin the main choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Due to its safe-haven properties, gold will attract investors to cope with potential dollar depreciation pressures and economic uncertainties.

However, Standard Chartered analysts point out that gold is more likely to rise after Trump's victory, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending after Trump's victory, which will drive inflation in the short term and further increase demand for gold.

The "Hero" of the Crypto Circle, What Has Trump Done in the Crypto Circle?

Once upon a time, Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrencies. In early 2019, during his presidency, Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "worthless" and believing that crypto assets could be used as tools for illegal activities. He stated that Bitcoin "is not money" and is highly volatile.

After leaving the White House, Trump continued to hold a reserved attitude in interviews, calling Bitcoin a "scam" and insisting that the dollar should be the only global reserve currency. During this period, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was basically negative. However, the NFT craze in 2021 quickly began to influence Trump's perspective.

The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a "winter," with many crypto projects on the brink of bankruptcy and market confidence low. It was at this time that Trump's long-time advisor Bill Zank appeared in his life, bringing a suggestion that would change Trump's mind: to issue Trump-themed NFTs.

Trump showed unexpected interest in this—however, he did not like the term "NFT" and preferred to call them "digital trading cards." Although it seemed strange, these cards were very popular, selling for $99 each and almost selling out immediately after release. Trump's NFTs surprisingly brought this former president "in front of crypto enthusiasts" for the first time, not only generating tens of millions of dollars in income for him but also introducing him to a new and powerful support group.

As a result, Trump's attitude towards crypto has undergone a complete reversal over the years.

November 1, 2024, marks the 16th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper. Trump tweeted his blessings for Bitcoin and stated that if elected, he would end the Harris administration's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, even calling on supporters to help him realize the vision of "Bitcoin made in America." At this point, he was no longer an opponent, nor just a bystander, but a "presidential candidate" who supported crypto.

One of the most iconic events was his attendance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, even clearly understanding the biggest pain points in the crypto circle, promising to fire the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with "regulators who understand crypto."

He candidly stated that "opposing crypto is the wrong policy" and that he would make America a "Bitcoin superpower," hoping to lead the global crypto industry development through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy, stating that if Bitcoin were to "moon," he hoped America could be the navigator.

Trump attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference, image source: WSJ

In his speech, Trump vigorously positioned himself against the Democratic Party's harsh stance on crypto, especially contrasting himself with Elizabeth Warren, known for her crypto regulation. He also pointed out that if elected, he would create a "Presidential Crypto Advisory Committee," which immediately sparked enthusiastic applause and cheers from the audience. More shockingly, he suggested that Bitcoin's market cap could one day surpass gold and publicly criticized the anti-crypto policies of the Biden and Harris administrations.

During the conference, Trump seemed to experience a "public awakening," no longer the former president who was skeptical of cryptocurrencies, but rather an enthusiastic defender of Bitcoin and free markets. The audience was inspired by his change of attitude, viewing him as a "hero" of the crypto circle.

Trump attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference, image source: The New York Times

Another detail behind this transformation reveals the subtle connection between Trump and cryptocurrencies. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin had risen 3900% during his previous presidential term, soaring from less than $1,000 to over $30,000. His speech not only ignited the audience but also garnered support from crypto industry giants, such as Elon Musk, the Winklevoss twins, and Marc Andreessen, the founder of venture capital giant A16Z, all expressing their support for his crypto policies.

In addition to Bitcoin itself, Trump has gradually recognized the importance of Bitcoin mining in U.S. energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives from several large Bitcoin mining companies in the U.S. and promised to strongly support crypto mining activities in policy. He even posted on Truth Social that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and hopes that "all remaining Bitcoins are made in America." In Trump's view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity; it symbolizes America's will to resist central banks.

In September, Trump used Bitcoin to buy a cheeseburger at a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York, an action that also pushed Bitcoin back from being a financial investment to a potential everyday currency, becoming a symbol of his crypto stance.

Trump also made bigger commitments to the crypto circle, publicly stating that he would retain Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and plans to pardon Ross Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life imprisonment for operating a dark web platform. Through these radical actions, Trump successfully crafted himself as the "savior" of the crypto circle, promising to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and pledging to make America the center of global cryptocurrencies.

As the suspense of whether Trump will return to the White House looms, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. Over the past few years, political turmoil, policy changes, and global economic uncertainties have pushed Bitcoin step by step towards new heights. If Trump regains power, his support for cryptocurrencies could undoubtedly trigger a new wave in the market, taking Bitcoin to new heights and even reshaping America's financial landscape.