Trump's wife Melania is also launching a cryptocurrency. Is the market going to be ruined?

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

Last Saturday morning (January 18), we witnessed history once again: the President of the United States issued his own cryptocurrency.

Following this, the partners in the group began a heated discussion around the topic of the TRUMP coin. The President's issuance of a coin instantly created a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment in the market, and for the past two days, social media has been buzzing with discussions about this event. It is said that most communities (groups) have also gone into a frenzy tracking this matter.

This event not only created a breakout effect but also attracted major media and self-media to report on the hot topic immediately. Leading exchanges rushed to list it, likely drawing in many retail investors to buy the dip. Moreover, it had a direct impact on the market, causing certain cryptocurrencies like SOL to rise rapidly while also draining the overall market.

Then, various lists of people who became rich overnight began to appear on social media and in some communities (groups). It is said that some KOLs made over 20 million dollars in just one day. This overnight wealth effect further increased people's FOMO sentiment. In the past two days, I noticed new messages coming in asking: Can we still buy TRUMP?

Regarding the question of whether to buy or not, my advice on MemeCoins has always remained unchanged (even for a coin issued by the President): whether to buy should depend on your personal risk preference. If you really can't resist participating, then just use an amount you can afford to lose.

Don't always think that just because someone else made 20 million dollars in a day, you can too. To put it bluntly, if someone can invest 2 million dollars in this matter, it should be because they can psychologically bear a loss of 2 million dollars, and that 2 million dollar position may not be their entire capital. If you can also handle that psychologically, then of course you can put out 2 million dollars to bet. However, position allocation is just the basics; you may also need timing (entering early), location (having large funds ready on-chain), and human factors (finding someone to take the bet).

The timing of the TRUMP coin issuance is also interesting; it was strategically chosen to be on Saturday morning (Beijing time), which led to many people who like to sleep in collectively slapping their thighs in regret… This created conditions for further FOMO.

I remember mentioning in last year's (2024) e-book that the hallmark event marking the end of the last bull market was when various celebrities and companies rushed to issue various NFTs and engage in chain games and the metaverse, while this bull market is likely to see the issuance of Memes. As shown in the image below.

I just didn't expect that at this stage of the current bull market, the celebrity leading the issuance of coins would actually be the President of the United States!

In the previous article (January 17), we mainly discussed the topic of "transformation," mentioning a hypothesis about a prolonged bull market. As for whether the current heat of TRUMP is the climax of a phase bull market or a symbolic starting point for a prolonged bull market, we cannot judge at this moment; we will leave it to time to verify.

Yesterday, I saw someone joking that the next top gainers in the market should be:

TRUMP

MELANIA

IVANKA

JARED

ERIC

LARA

DON JR

TIFFANY

BARRON

Now the joke is starting to become reality. While the heat of TRUMP continues, this morning (Beijing time), Trump's wife Melania Trump also posted on X, announcing the launch of the Meme token MELANIA. When I woke up this morning, I saw that partners in the group had started discussing MELANIA at 6 AM. After dropping my daughter off at kindergarten and checking the price again, MELANIA had already risen to 9.5 dollars. As shown in the image below.

This is simply the rhythm of the Trump family all issuing coins, it's crazy! However, an interesting point is that the gradual unlocking mechanism for the Melania token starts with a 30-day lock-up period, followed by limited monthly releases, which is different from the daily unlocking period of the TRUMP token.

In the coming days, the market will likely continue to be engulfed in this FOMO sentiment, which presents both opportunities (more short-term speculation) and higher short-term risks. Our advice remains the same: if you want to gamble, do so with a position you can afford to lose, manage your positions well, and try to avoid emotional trading.

With the explosive popularity of the Trump family's related concept tokens, the download volume of related crypto apps is also skyrocketing. Just look at the top-ranked apps in the finance category of the app store to feel the current sentiment. As shown in the image below.

Another interesting thing is that the recent FOMO trading frenzy has also caused some Solana infrastructure services to experience interruptions, such as:

Phantom wallet (claimed to be the Metamask on Solana, with over 15 million monthly active users) posted on X stating: We are currently experiencing a massive surge of over 8 million requests per minute, and while we work to stabilize the platform, transactions may not be completed in one go. As shown in the image below.

Moonshot (a Solana token launchpad) also posted on X stating: We are currently experiencing extremely high traffic, and some exchanges may fail. As shown in the image below.

As FOMO sentiment continues, many who missed out on TRUMP and MELANIA seem to have turned their attention to SOL, believing that since these Memes cannot trade without SOL, buying it must be the right choice. They are rushing in at around 280 dollars, shouting that SOL will definitely reach 1000 dollars.

Regarding the price of SOL, Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside has discussed this several times in last year's articles. For example, on August 11, 2024, we published a separate article titled "Will SOL Exceed 1000 Dollars in the 2025 Bull Market?" as shown in the image below. Interested partners can revisit the corresponding historical article.

What I want to express here is that during the 2021 bull market, SOL's price reached 258 dollars, with a corresponding market cap of 75 billion dollars. As of the writing of this article (January 20, 2025), coincidentally, SOL's price is also exactly 258 dollars, but now the corresponding market cap is 120 billion dollars. This means that the price of SOL at both points in time has not changed, but the market cap has inflated significantly. To put it simply, the inflation of SOL will dilute the value of its tokens, and the market needs more liquidity (capital) to maintain the same price.

If you believe that SOL can reach 1000 dollars in this bull market, I won't argue with you, but my advice is that we need to first understand the underlying logic of liquidity. In other words, if you can convince yourself about liquidity, then don't say 258 dollars for SOL; even at 500 dollars, you can directly take the bet.

In fact, SOL is still relatively good; although its market cap has inflated, its price has still broken through its ATH in the past two days. If you pay close attention to some other altcoins, you may find more such situations (for example, the market cap of a token exceeds its previous high, but the current price of the token is falling).

As for why this situation has occurred, we have provided relevant analysis and sorting in last year's series of articles on altcoin seasons. The reasons include: too many projects born in this round, many projects having high FDV but low circulation, etc.

In short, we still maintain the viewpoint from a few days ago: this year we may still have the opportunity to see an altcoin season, but the current liquidity theoretically should not support the kind of altcoin season we saw in the last bull market (where almost all altcoins surged), and various severely inflated (including ongoing unlocking issues) project tokens are taking away many potential gains that altcoins should have.

Finally, let me pose a question for everyone to think about: With the explosive popularity of the TRUMP concept coin on January 18, it should theoretically attract more newcomers and capital into the market. So why has TOTAL2 (the total market cap of all altcoins excluding BTC) still decreased? Where has the money gone? Is the market going to be ruined? As shown in the image below.

In conclusion, no matter how FOMO the market sentiment is, we still retain our previous advice: emotional speculation and value investing are completely different strategies. You must first clarify what your strategy is or which strategy suits you.

Setting aside other political factors, what the crypto field currently needs is liquidity. The Trump family's issuance of coins seems to be setting an example for other celebrities/institutions. If Americans can really attract a return of dollars by issuing air coins (for example, reaching a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars), that would be much more efficient than any "tariff war."

There can be many presidents on Earth, and the crypto market can have countless Memes, but there is only one Bitcoin. Ultimately, all channels will likely lead to Bitcoin. If you ignore any short-term fluctuations, then you just need to hold onto your Bitcoin.

The biggest contribution of the TRUMP token to the crypto market is creating a breakout effect and a leading effect, bringing more liquidity to the market. But if you don't know where the market's liquidity comes from, then you are the one providing the liquidity.