HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly | Over half of the mining machines have reached shutdown price (2.24-3.02)

Author: Mengqi | Editor: Mengqi

1. Bitcoin Market

Analysis of Bitcoin Price Trends This Week

From February 24 to March 2, 2025, Bitcoin exhibited a general trend of fluctuating downward, experiencing multiple rounds of intense volatility, followed by a rebound after reaching a temporary low at the end of the month. The specific trends are as follows:

February 24: Bitcoin price fluctuated between $95,000 and $96,500, with relatively stable market trading. However, at 9:30 PM, the price began to drop below the fluctuation range starting from $95,971, quickly dipping to $94,006, initiating a new downward trend.

February 25: The market faced significant downward pressure, with prices showing a stepwise decline. In the first phase, it dropped from $94,990 to $92,621; in the second phase, it further broke below the $92,500 support level, reaching $89,073; in the third phase, after a brief rebound to $89,844, it faced pressure again and fell back to $86,200, showing a notable daily decline.

February 26: After a brief rise, Bitcoin continued its downward trend. The price rebounded to $89,083 in the morning but then entered a fluctuation range between $87,700 and $89,200. In the evening, market sentiment weakened further, and the price quickly dropped to $85,516, followed by a short-term rebound, peaking at $87,834.

February 27: Bitcoin continued its downward trend, with increased market liquidity. During the day, the price broke below a key support level, hitting a low of $82,965, and then slowly rebounded to $86,939, but overall showed weak upward momentum, falling slightly again to $82,857 in the evening.

February 28: Market volatility intensified, with the price briefly rebounding to $84,671 before quickly retreating, hitting a low of $79,691 during the day, and further dropping to this week's low of $78,441. After reaching the temporary low, the market saw an oversold rebound, with the price fluctuating back up to $83,913.

March 1: Bitcoin price consolidated around $84,000, with market sentiment gradually warming, showing an overall upward trend. In the morning, the price briefly rose to $86,501 before retreating to around $85,000.

March 2: The volatility narrowed, with the price showing a slow upward trend. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin had steadily climbed from $84,360 to $86,362.

During this period, Bitcoin underwent significant adjustments, with market sentiment shifting from high-level fluctuations to panic selling, followed by an oversold recovery at the end of the month. Market bullish confidence is recovering, but short-term resistance remains, necessitating attention to whether key price levels can be broken, as well as the impact of market liquidity, macroeconomic environment, and capital flow on Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin Price Trends (2025/02/24-2025/03/02)

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

As of February 28, 2025, Bitcoin's price was approximately $85,170, up about 5.3% from the previous day. However, the overall trend this week was downward, with prices falling from around $95,000 on February 24 to the current level, a decline of over 10%. According to coinglass data, the return rate for BTC in February was -17.39%, while the return rate for January was 9.29%.

Capital Flow

This week, there was a massive outflow of funds from the Bitcoin spot ETF market. On February 25, a record single-day outflow of $1.13 billion was recorded. Throughout February, the total outflow was approximately $3.4 billion. Additionally, investor uncertainty about market prospects led to a shift of funds from the cryptocurrency market to traditional safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price broke below the key support level of $90,000 and further dipped below $80,000. Analysts pointed out that if it breaks below the secondary support level of $73,800, it could trigger a more significant decline. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show that the market has entered an oversold area, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term. There are clear signs of bullish entry when Bitcoin's price breaks above $86,000.

1. Market rebound possibility: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the market has entered an oversold area, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term. Some traders believe Bitcoin may rebound in the $88,000 range before determining further trend direction. This aligns with the RSI signal, indicating a rebound may occur soon.
2. Resistance levels: Glassnode noted on February 28 that the $96,000 to $98,000 range could become a strong resistance level for Bitcoin. According to this analysis, although some addresses within this price range are reallocating their Bitcoin, the supply cluster remains very dense. If Bitcoin's price rises to this level, it may encounter strong selling pressure, becoming an obstacle to price increases.
3. Support levels and altcoin independent trends: Crypto KOL Ansem stated that the $70,000 range should be a strong support level for Bitcoin, and after this drop, altcoins may exhibit independent trends and develop their own trajectories. He warned of potential significant volatility over the weekend, advising caution against bearish positions. This viewpoint provides more support levels for the current market and may influence Bitcoin's short-term trends.

Market Sentiment

Currently, Bitcoin market sentiment is extremely fearful, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 10, reflecting investors' concerns about the long-term policy environment and regulatory trends, further exacerbating selling pressure. Hargreaves Lansdown analysts pointed out that the market's low sentiment suppresses Bitcoin's rebound potential, especially under the influence of external factors such as Trump's tariff threats and the Bybit hacking incident, with a lack of policy support intensifying the tension. Investor confidence in the future has been undermined, leading to continued instability in market sentiment.

Industry News and Macroeconomic Background

1. U.S. President Trump Announces Tariffs
   On February 27, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, effective March 4. This move raised concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth and rising inflation, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of risk assets, including Bitcoin. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has made investors more inclined to hold safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar rather than high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.

2. Bitcoin Reserve Bill Faces Resistance in Some States
   Recently, some state governments in the U.S. have taken a cautious or even opposing stance towards Bitcoin reserve bills. For example, the Montana House voted down the Bitcoin reserve bill, arguing that investing in Bitcoin carries high risks, while supporters believe it could enhance returns. This policy resistance may affect the market's acceptance of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class and exacerbate short-term market uncertainty.

3. Global Stock Market Volatility and Safe-Haven Asset Flows
   Due to uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, global stock market volatility has increased. The market expects U.S. interest rates to remain high until mid-2025, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Investors are seeking safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while high-risk assets like Bitcoin face selling pressure.

3. Hash Rate Changes

From February 24 to March 2, 2025, the Bitcoin network's hash rate exhibited significant fluctuations, showing a trend of rising and then falling. On February 24, the hash rate remained around 730 EH/s, briefly dropping to 687.56 EH/s in the evening before rebounding. On February 25, the hash rate gradually increased from 715 EH/s to 825.30 EH/s, followed by a slight pullback to 767.78 EH/s. On February 26, the hash rate continued its upward trend, briefly touching 841.95 EH/s, and after a pullback, continued to rise to 857.99 EH/s. On February 27, the hash rate further increased from 808.62 EH/s to 895.70 EH/s, stabilizing between 850 EH/s and 900 EH/s, before slightly retreating to 876.81 EH/s in the evening. On February 28, the hash rate reached a weekly high, quickly climbing from 801.19 EH/s to 992 EH/s, but then rapidly fell back to 857.36 EH/s, further dipping to 756.21 EH/s. On March 1, the overall network hash rate rose to 786.98 EH/s, then fell to 698.88 EH/s, and rose again to 775.57 EH/s, showing an overall fluctuating adjustment trend. On March 2, the hash rate exhibited a significant upward trend, continuously rising from the start of the day, surpassing 934.61 EH/s as of the time of writing, demonstrating strong growth momentum in network computing power.

Overall, this week's hash rate fluctuations were influenced by miner power adjustments, changes in market sentiment, and energy supply factors. Despite experiencing significant short-term pullbacks, the overall hash rate remained at a high level, indicating the stability of the Bitcoin network and the continued activity of miners.

It is noteworthy that the global Bitcoin mining landscape is also changing. News on March 1 indicated that the shares of the U.S. and China in the global hash rate have declined, although they still lead. Currently, only nine countries account for more than 1% of Bitcoin's hash rate, while 28 countries have a hash rate share exceeding 0.1%. This trend reflects a more decentralized geographical distribution of Bitcoin mining, which may further influence future trends in network computing power and energy demand patterns.

Hash Rate Data of the Bitcoin Network

4. Mining Revenue

From February 24 to March 1, 2025, Bitcoin miners faced dual pressures from falling Bitcoin prices and rising mining costs. On February 25, Bitcoin's price fell below $90,000, hitting a new low in nearly three months, with a single-day decline exceeding 7%. This price fluctuation caused the revenue of some mining machines to approach or fall below the shutdown price, putting miners at risk of shutting down. According to F2Pool data, even if Bitcoin's price remained at $120,000, 38% of mining machines were at the edge of shutdown prices. At the current price level, more than half of the mining machines have reached shutdown prices, leading to a significant reduction in miner revenue.

Data from The Block indicates that Bitcoin miners' total revenue in February 2025 was $1.24 billion, down 11.4% from January's $1.4 billion. This decline was primarily influenced by Bitcoin price fluctuations, and due to increased competition among miners, the mining difficulty was adjusted upward by 2.3% in February, further squeezing miners' profit margins. Additionally, the proportion of income from transaction fees decreased, indicating a weakening of market activity during the Bitcoin price decline.

According to a report from IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin miners accounted for only 2.4% of the total on-chain transaction volume last Sunday, the lowest level since May 2023. This change indicates a significant decline in miners' activity and their share of on-chain transaction volume.

F2Pool also pointed out that when Bitcoin's price was $80,000, mining machines with a power consumption of 30 W/T were nearing the breakeven point, further exacerbating the revenue pressure faced by miners. Under current market conditions, low-power and high-efficiency mining machines are more competitive.

Overall, this week, Bitcoin miners' revenues were squeezed by both falling Bitcoin prices and rising mining costs, significantly compressing profit margins. Future miner revenues will be influenced by multiple factors, including Bitcoin price trends, network difficulty adjustments, mining machine efficiency, and energy costs.

Monthly Revenue Data of Bitcoin Miners

5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

According to CloverPool data, as of March 2, 2025, the total network computing power was approximately 809.02 EH/s. Previously, the Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted at block height 885,024 (Beijing time February 24, 4:29:38), with a decrease of 3.15% to 110.57 T.

According to the latest data from MacroMicro, the total production cost of Bitcoin is estimated to be around $85,975.44. However, the recent drop in Bitcoin prices to around $80,000 has caused the ratio of mining costs to market prices to rise to 1.05. This means that current mining costs have exceeded Bitcoin's market price, putting miners at risk of losses. As Bitcoin prices fall, some miners may shut down their machines due to declining profitability, leading to a decrease in computing power. In this case, mining difficulty may adjust accordingly, affecting overall mining efficiency.

Additionally, according to news on March 1, the latest block 885840's block time extended to 77 minutes, which may be due to increased competition among miners or uneven distribution of computing power, further impacting the overall network's mining efficiency.

This week, Bitcoin mining faced challenges. Mining costs have exceeded market prices, squeezing miners' profitability. Price declines may lead to some miners exiting the market, further affecting computing power and mining efficiency. Miners need to closely monitor changes in market prices and mining difficulty, adjusting operational strategies to cope with current challenges.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

6. Policy and Regulatory News

Latest Developments in Bitcoin Reserve Legislation in U.S. States

Bitcoin Reserve Bill Faces Resistance in Some States

• Montana: The House voted down the Bitcoin reserve bill, citing high risks associated with investing in Bitcoin, although supporters argue it could enhance returns.

• South Dakota: The House Commerce and Energy Committee postponed the HB 1202 bill to the "41st day" of the current legislative session, effectively equivalent to a rejection.

• Five states nationwide have proposals blocked: Proposals related to Bitcoin reserves have been rejected or blocked in five states, including Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming.

Multiple States Advancing Bitcoin Reserve Bills

• Georgia: The Senate introduced Bill 228 (SB 228), proposing to authorize the state treasury to invest unlimited amounts in Bitcoin and requiring the formulation of related policies and procedures, currently awaiting legislative review.

• Oklahoma: The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill (HB 1203) passed the House committee stage and is now in the full voting phase, allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin or digital assets with a market capitalization exceeding $500 billion.

• Texas: The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill has passed the business and commerce committee review stage and will be submitted for Senate consideration.

• National Trend: Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund (SAF), stated that seven states in the U.S. have passed committee reviews of Bitcoin reserve bills, and the legislative process is advancing.

Fidelity Representatives Met with SEC Crypto Task Force Last Week, Discussing Regulatory Recognition of On-Chain Incentives like Liquidity Mining

On February 25, news from the U.S. SEC disclosed meeting minutes indicating that on February 20, the SEC's crypto special action team met with representatives from Fidelity Investments, who submitted attached documents and discussed relevant topics during the meeting:

The applicability of customer protection rules to brokers interacting with digital asset securities, discussing the requirements for customer asset segregation and custody in digital asset securities trading; standardized listing rules for exchange-traded products (ETPs) of digital assets, to promote the standardization framework for the issuance and listing of digital asset ETPs; clarifying the selection mechanism for asset staking by fund sponsors, defining the compliance paths and operational norms for funds when staking crypto assets; accounting treatment of blockchain-based tokens and financial instruments, exploring regulatory recognition methods for staking rewards, liquidity mining rewards, and other on-chain incentives.

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7. Mining News

Profitability Continues to Face Resistance, Bitcoin Mining Stocks Bitdeer and Cipher Plummet

On February 26, news reported that Bitdeer's stock price fell 28% to $9.38 per share, while Cipher Mining's stock price dropped 20% to $3.96 per share. Bitdeer Technologies reported annual revenue of $69 million, a 40% decline from the previous year. Cipher Mining's revenue increased to $151 million, but its annual adjusted loss widened to $106.6 million.

Over Half of Mainstream Bitcoin Mining Machines Are Near Shutdown Prices, with 16 Models Having Electricity Costs Exceeding 60%

On February 27, F2Pool's online data indicated that with Bitcoin's price around $84,803, over half of mainstream Bitcoin mining machines were at the edge of shutdown prices or operating at a loss. Among 135 mainstream mining machines, 68 machines (about 50.4%) had negative daily net earnings, meaning these devices could not be profitable at the current electricity price ($0.06 per kWh).

Among the 67 mining machines still profitable, 16 had electricity costs exceeding 60%, with the Bitmain M33S+ and M30S+ having electricity cost ratios as high as 99%, and the Antminer S19 reaching 100%, at breakeven point.

The latest generation of mining machines, such as the Antminer S21XP water-cooled version, has an electricity cost ratio of only 35%, with a daily net profit of $15.12, and a shutdown price of only $29,757, making it the most resilient mining machine in the market. Following closely are the Antminer S21eXP water-cooled version (shutdown price $32,237) and the TerafluxAI3680 (shutdown price $37,197).

8. Bitcoin-Related News

Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings Situation (This Week's Statistics)

1. Latest data on El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings------El Salvador holds 6,093 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $518 million.

2. Metaplanet Continues to Accumulate Bitcoin------Metaplanet increased its Bitcoin holdings by 135 over the past five days, bringing its total holdings to 2,235.

3. Bitcoin Depot Increases Bitcoin Holdings Multiple Times------Bitcoin Depot recently increased its Bitcoin holdings twice, purchasing 11.1 and 51 Bitcoins, raising its total holdings to 82.6.

4. Rezolve Ai Denies Establishing a $1 Billion Bitcoin Treasury, Initial Investment of $100 Million------Rezolve Ai clarified that it plans to raise $1 billion through convertible notes, initially investing only $100 million to purchase Bitcoin, with a potential additional $900 million over the next three years, linked to its upcoming AI crypto payment platform.

5. Bitcoin Rewards Platform Fold Increases Holdings by 10 Bitcoins------Fold Holdings announced the purchase of 10 Bitcoins, investing approximately $875,000.

6. Bitcoin Whale "Spoofy" Accumulates During Market Adjustment Period------Notable Bitcoin whale "Spoofy" increased its holdings by 4,000 Bitcoins when BTC prices corrected to the $82,000-$85,000 range, valued at approximately $344 million.

7. Eason Technology to Invest $150,000 in Bitcoin------Eason Technology announced it would invest $150,000 in Bitcoin for product development, with no current plans to include digital assets in its portfolio.

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin Network Will Reach $20 Trillion in 4 to 8 Years

On February 24, news reported that MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin represents digital capital, with the network's current market value at $2 trillion, expected to reach $20 trillion in 4 to 8 years, with a growth rate surpassing any other asset in the world.

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Bernstein Reiterates Bullish Outlook on Bitcoin, Maintaining $200,000 Price Target

On February 26, news reported that Bernstein reiterated its $200,000 Bitcoin price target, believing there are potential buying opportunities in the current price adjustment, describing the current price pullback as "another opportunity to participate in this cycle," and reaffirming their bullish stance on Bitcoin's market structure. Bernstein also noted that Bitcoin has not yet reached a cycle peak, expecting it to approach the $200,000 mark within the next 12 months. Their long-term forecast for Bitcoin is based on a simple argument: "Driven by accelerated institutional and sovereign demand, Bitcoin will become a thriving 'digital gold' asset class."

CZ: Waiting for the Headline "Bitcoin Plummets from $1,001,000 to $985,000"

On February 26, news reported that Zhao Changpeng (CZ) reposted his 2020 tweet, "Waiting for the new headline: Bitcoin 'plummets' from $101,000 to $85,000," and stated, "Waiting for the new headline: Bitcoin 'plummets' from $1,001,000 to $985,000." He also expressed, "I have always been optimistic, as I have been for the past 12 years, and I still am." Subsequently, CZ emphasized, "No need to panic, Bitcoin will not disappear."

All Crypto Sectors Underperform Bitcoin This Year, with AI Frameworks Seeing Maximum Declines of 84%

On February 26, news from Delphi Digital disclosed that all cryptocurrency sectors have underperformed Bitcoin this year, with the average maximum declines ranked as follows: AI frameworks down 84.05%, Agent projects down 70.27%, Meme coins down 51.74%, Game infrastructure down 51.54%, and Modular solutions down 47.48%.

Assure DeFi CEO: Key Indicators Show Bitcoin Has Not Topped, Bullish Outlook for the Next Year

On February 27, news reported that Assure DeFi CEO Chapo's analysis indicated that Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio suggests there is still room for Bitcoin to rise in this cycle. Chapo expects Bitcoin's MVRV to reach 3.2 in 2025, implying another bull market for Bitcoin. In April 2021, Bitcoin's MVRV reached this level when the price was $58,253. Currently, Bitcoin's MVRV is 1.95, with a price of $84,416.

SkyBridge Capital Founder Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $180,000 by Year-End

On February 28, news reported that SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci predicted Bitcoin would reach $180,000 by the end of the year.

CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin Bull Market Not Over, 30% Pullbacks Are Common

On February 28, news reported that CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that a 30% pullback is common during Bitcoin bull market cycles, noting that Bitcoin fell 53% in 2021 but still reached an all-time high, advising investors not to panic sell. He also pointed out that the current market is in a distribution phase, with Bitcoin's spot trading volume highly active around $100,000, and future trends depend on whether new liquidity is sufficient. Although the bull market has not ended, a price drop below $75,000 could affect his bullish judgment.

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U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis: State-Level Bitcoin Strategic Reserves May Be Established Before Federal Ones

On March 1, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated today that state-level Bitcoin reserves may be established before federal ones, noting that there is currently insufficient support in Congress to push this forward. Additionally, as chair of the Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee, she posted on X platform, "I spend dollars and save Bitcoin," further expressing her recognition of Bitcoin as a long-term store of value asset.

CME Bitcoin Futures Premium Narrows, Basis Drops to About 4%, Possibly Approaching 2017 Trends

On March 1, news reported that this week saw another significant outflow from the spot Bitcoin ETF, with analysts attributing the core reason to the narrowing of the CME Bitcoin futures premium (basis dropping to about 4%), weakening the attractiveness of "cash arbitrage" strategies, especially given that the current 10-year U.S. Treasury provides about 4.3% risk-free returns, leading arbitrage funds to prefer safer investments. Other factors have influenced market sentiment, but essentially, the adjustment of professional traders' arbitrage strategies is key to the outflow of funds. Bitcoin's 30-day realized profit/loss ratio has not fallen below the trend line, suggesting that the bull market should still be ongoing, with the current trend possibly closest to that of 2017.