In-depth Analysis of the Final Battle of Dogecoin

Historical Review

$Doge was born in 2013, initially created by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer to satirize the bubble in the cryptocurrency market, but it unexpectedly developed into the highest market cap meme coin globally. The historical development of $Doge can be divided into several main stages:

2013 - 2017: Community-Driven and Charitable Culture

The Reddit community propelled $Doge to become an online tipping currency.
Sponsored the Jamaican bobsled team to participate in the Winter Olympics in 2014.
In 2015, Elon Musk publicly expressed interest in $Doge for the first time.

2018 - 2020: Low Liquidity and Market Marginalization

$Doge maintained a low price for an extended period, with no significant narrative driving the market.
Major liquidity came from community trading, with no institutional attention.

2021 - 2022: Elon Musk and the Meme Coin Wave

The GME event and Musk's posts propelled $Doge, increasing by 100 times within four months.
$Doge briefly surpassed a market cap of $90 billion, becoming one of the top three cryptocurrencies.
$Doge was listed on major exchanges like Robinhood, Coinbase, Binance, and OKX.

2023 - 2025: Institutional Capital Entry and Payment Process

Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter (now X) drove the price of $Doge up.
Tesla began accepting $Doge as payment for some products.
Trump was elected President of the United States, shifting to a cryptocurrency-friendly stance and potentially promoting related policies.
The X Money code and related information circulated, with market expectations that it might support cryptocurrency payments for $Doge.
Grayscale launched a $Doge Trust Fund, and Bitwise submitted an application for a $Doge ETF.

Narrative Economics

The market value of $Doge primarily relies on narrative-driven factors, which determine the future development and liquidity sources of $Doge, as well as influencing the capital rotation patterns of institutions and retail investors. Here are the current narratives affecting the market:

Leader of Meme Coins and POW Mechanism
Musk Effect and its Connection to $Doge
Payment Narrative (Tesla, X Money)
Institutional Investment and ETF Applications

Leader of Meme Coins and POW Mechanism

Leader of Meme Coins

Since its inception, $Doge was primarily driven by the Reddit community to become an online tipping function. After the last bull market, it established itself as the largest meme coin by market cap due to Musk's influence. Although it is mainly affected by overall market trends, it has long-term correlations with other meme coins and catalyzed the emergence of other meme coins.

For example, $Shib and $Floki were born in 2021, along with the then-popular $Babydoge. Notably, compared to other compatible/existing "meme tokens" on public chains, $Doge is the largest POW "meme coin" (second only to $BTC), with the third being $LTC.

POW Mechanism

In the previous round, a common phrase was "Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is silver, and Dogecoin is copper," because their technical architecture is POW and the code is similar. The biggest difference between $Doge and them is the inflation mechanism, which issues a fixed amount of 5 billion coins each year, while the other two have a maximum supply limit. The table below compares the information and mechanisms of the three:

In early 2014, $Ltc had a hash rate of 600 GH/s, while $Doge had less than 40 GH/s, which led to a very low cost of network attacks on DOGE. It suffered from pool attacks and Dogecoin Wallet hacks, causing the price to plummet by 95.26%. To enhance security, LTC founder Charles Lee suggested that the $Doge community engage in merged mining (AuxPoW) with $Ltc. This suggestion sparked intense debate, and ultimately the community chose to bind with $Ltc.

Through shared hash power, the overall hash rate of $Doge continued to grow, increasing the cost for hackers to attack DOGE and securing the chain. Additionally, the $Doge rewards received by miners became their main source of income (early large holders of $Ltc were also large holders of $Doge). Looking back, the merged mining indeed created a win-win situation.

Musk Effect and its Correlation with $Doge

It is well-known that the major driving force behind the resurgence in 2021 was Musk. Over time, the market influence of $Doge and its connection to Musk gradually expanded, including Musk's announcement on April 28, 2021, that he would appear on Saturday Night Live (SNL), and the live broadcast on May 8.

During the live broadcast, when asked what $Doge was, he jokingly replied, "It's a hustle," causing the price to plummet 30% from $0.74. At that time, Grayscale's Barry Silbert even posted that he shorted $Doge with $1 million on FTX. The causal cycle has now seen $Doge become one of the currencies in Grayscale's Trust Fund, indicating a clear shift in attitude.

In this election, Musk also strongly supported Trump's administration. Last year, he even proposed a government efficiency department (abbreviated as D.O.G.E) primarily responsible for improving government efficiency and reducing costs. Initially, the market linked this move to the price of $Doge. Earlier this year, the official website briefly changed to the $Doge logo.

However, looking back from the past to the present, the overall environment has changed. The market is no longer buying into Musk's simple slogans or tweets about memes; expectations for price increases are now placed on Musk's ability to support $Doge through other means.

Payment Narrative (Tesla, X Money)

In 2025, X announced the upcoming launch of the payment service X Money, which is a key step for Musk to transform X into an "all-in-one app." Based on current information, it already includes several wallet features, instant transfers, QR code payments, and functionality with Visa, with expectations for deeper integration systems to be released soon.

However, as a trader in crypto, what is more concerning is whether the anticipated integration of X Money with $Doge can be realized. Additionally, Tesla's existing payment methods include $Doge (limited to certain products), and some news outlets have reported that certain supercharging stations in the U.S. also support charging payments.

Here is an interpretation based on the information I currently have:

Tesla

According to a query by @inevitable360, the front-end code on the Cybertruck page contains "DOGECOIN." During 2022-2023, I also found related codes like "DOGEPAY" and "DOGECOIN" through front-end code queries, which were later officially announced by Musk to open payment features. Therefore, this information, combined with the payment narrative, makes it very likely that this year will see the option to support payments for purchasing vehicles.

X Money

Information released by @aaronp613 indicates that X plans to launch X Money in the U.S. first. Since X Money has not yet obtained full licensing in all 50 states, it may choose to launch first in the 39 states that have been approved, using testing in certain states for validation. Additionally, each user will be provided with a QR code, similar to scanning for payments, allowing for transfers and remittances.

Based on my past research experience and interpretation, it was in April 2023 that Musk fulfilled his 2022 promise by changing the blue bird logo to the $Doge dog logo. Similarly, the previously mentioned D.O.G.E briefly changed the official website logo to the dog logo. I believe Musk will keep his initial promise or joke (as with the Twitter acquisition).

On a practical level, if X Money officially supports financial services, X can test the feasibility of payment services and optimize and expand based on market reactions. Regulatory issues will become a topic of speculation, and whether X Money can overcome regulatory hurdles may also become a market focus, attracting capital speculation in $Doge, which could be one of the universal methods for cross-border payments.

The most notable instance was in 2022 when Robinhood's CEO Vladimir Tenev stated that if Dogecoin wants to become an asset for everyday payments and transactions in the future, it can solve the low transaction throughput issue by increasing block size and reducing block time. Both the co-founder of Dogecoin and Musk supported his views.

Tenev first mentioned that Dogecoin's transaction fees are already low enough to serve as a viable electronic cash leader, but he believes that for broader adoption, improvements in block size and block time are essential. Therefore, if the speed issues can be resolved (I believe Musk can definitely do this), and with Tesla already implementing $Doge payment methods, the potential for scenarios integrating with X Money payment applications could significantly expand globally.

Institutional Investment and ETF Applications

Institutional Investment

In addition to Grayscale launching the Dogecoin Trust Fund (nearly $2 million AUM) this year, which is seen as a key step for $Doge to transition from meme-driven to institutional investment, the Dogecoin Foundation is also a core player dedicated to promoting and supporting the development of Dogecoin.

The foundation announced the establishment of a "Core Development Fund" at the beginning of 2023, investing 5 million $Doge (approximately $360,000) to support the work of Dogecoin core developers. In November 2024, the foundation issued a fundraising call seeking support from large sponsors to promote the large-scale adoption of Dogecoin in 2025. The funds will be used to build a decentralized payment infrastructure called "Dogebox" to assist small and medium-sized enterprises in accepting Dogecoin as a payment method.

Additionally, the members of the foundation are also worth noting. In 2021, the foundation was restructured, and the advisory committee includes: Dogecoin co-founder Billy Markus, core developer Max Keller, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, and Musk's long-term partner Jared Birchall. These individuals are well-known influential figures.

ETF Applications

In early February, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas predicted the approval probabilities for ETFs of four major cryptocurrencies: $Sol, $Doge, $Ltc, and $Xrp here:

$Doge (75%): As the largest meme coin, the 19b-4 filings submitted by Grayscale and Bitwise have been recognized by the SEC, thus the chances of approval are relatively high.

On the institutional side, Trump's policies and statements tend to reduce regulation and encourage market development, which also increases the chances of approval for the $Doge ETF. Therefore, the real question is not whether it will pass, but when it will pass.

I personally believe it must be approved by the end of this year at the latest, or else the positive effects of the ETF narrative will diminish with marginal effects. Currently, the number of cryptocurrencies applying for and submitting ETFs is increasing, and it is crucial to secure approval before the end of the year to raise market expectations for prices (from the perspective of liquidity and quantity).

If $Doge, as the leader of meme coins, is indeed approved on schedule, then its status and chances as a legitimate payment method may significantly increase. This means that whether Trump's crypto policies truly promote development will also have a key impact on Musk's efforts in $Doge payments and financial market development.

Chip Structure

Due to the concentration of $Doge chips in a few addresses, the top 115 holders account for 65.4% of the total circulation. Even a single institution like Robinhood holds 21.06% of the chips. Therefore, understanding and analyzing these chips' impact on price fluctuations can often reveal clues before the market starts and ends. In my past trading experience, this has also been very helpful. The following table compares the past Top 20 with Robinhood's holdings:

According to the analysis in "Beyond Musk: Is Dogecoin's True Price Driver?! Chip Distribution and Price Impact All in One! Quickly Grasp Key Signals Before Price Surges" of the top 20 holders of $Doge, especially the on-chain transfer behaviors of smart money addresses, it can be observed that the timing of operations from these large $Doge addresses is highly correlated with price fluctuations. The following table lists addresses with a high correlation to price:

Monitoring address transfer behaviors can assist in planning strategies for buying low and selling high, as well as identifying selling pressure caused by large-scale outflows, which often serve as reference signals for short-term market trends. For traders, paying attention to the movements of these addresses can provide analysis and assessment of future price trends. However, market behaviors show that the participation of large smart money adds complexity to the chip dynamics.

Current Positioning of $Doge and Future Potential Opportunities

Based on past prices and cycles, it is very likely that a relative low point will form between 0.18 and 0.2, breaking through historical highs again. I have also expressed willingness to make a large purchase at 0.18 in previous tweets. If I were to give a price prediction, I believe the probability of reaching $1 in this cycle is the highest, similar to the historical significance of $100,000 for $Btc.

At this stage, $Doge still relies on market narratives and capital liquidity. In the short to medium term, it may continue to maintain high volatility along with the overall market. If key events such as X Money and ETF approvals are realized as expected, it could truly transform from a meme coin to a "payment-oriented cryptocurrency."

This content reflects my deep understanding and analysis of Dogecoin accumulated over five years since entering the space. If you enjoy my content or wish to discuss further, feel free to leave a comment or like and share.

See you on the moon.

MemeCoin Research Institute

Track the Meme craze, believe in the power of the crowd.

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