Matrixport Market Observation: "Peer-to-Peer" Tariffs to be Released Soon, Gold and Stock Market Show Polarized Reactions

In the past week, the BTC price has shown a general trend of fluctuations, reaching a high of $88,765 and a low of $81,278, with a maximum weekly volatility of 8% (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of April 1, 15:00). Influenced by macro policies, BTC experienced significant price volatility last week. The upcoming announcement of the "reciprocal" tariff strategy will further impact the trends of crypto assets and global stock indices. The non-farm payroll report and CPI data will also be released soon, which may further influence market sentiment and attitudes towards risk assets.

Market Overview

Global stock markets show significant decline due to Trump's new tariff policy

The Trump team will introduce new "reciprocal" tariff measures on April 2 (Eastern Time). The market is generally concerned that this round of tariffs may exacerbate trade frictions, inflation risks, and drag down economic growth, negatively affecting the stock market and cryptocurrencies.

As the last trading day of Q1, the evening of March 31 saw a noticeable reaction in global stock markets. The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower across the board, with the Nasdaq index at one point dropping over 2%. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index turned positive, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices narrowed their losses. Technology stocks generally fell sharply, with Tesla and Nvidia down about 4%. European stock markets also fell more than 1% on average.

The market trend on the 31st also marked a sharp turnaround from the brief optimism seen in mid-March. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged to 24, exceeding the 20 threshold that typically alerts the market. Meanwhile, investors flocked to safe-haven assets, with U.S. Treasuries and gold in high demand, and gold prices reached a historic high of over $3,100 per ounce.

BTC spot ETF experiences net outflow for two consecutive months, retail interest remains low

BTC ETFs have seen net outflows from the market for two consecutive months. Although the capital inflow since the beginning of the year remains positive ($1.05 billion), the recent performance of ETFs has been noticeably weak, especially compared to safe-haven assets like gold.

The flow of funds indicates that BTC ETFs are currently highly dependent on favorable financing rates and arbitrage opportunities, rather than widespread investor interest. Given that retail speculative sentiment in the crypto market remains low, without strong positive catalysts, it is unlikely that BTC ETF capital inflows will see substantial recovery in the short term.

Nasdaq 100 index records worst quarterly performance in nearly three years

According to Jin10, concerns over the AI bubble have hit the Nasdaq 100 index, which fell 8.3% in the first quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance in nearly three years. Nvidia (NVDA.O), Broadcom (AVGO.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Amazon (AMZN.O) have all dropped at least 20% from their respective all-time highs. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 index is also heading towards its worst quarter compared to other global markets since the 1980s.

Data shows that the Nasdaq 100 index peaked in February, more than doubling from its low in December 2022. Although the average valuation of the index has dropped from 27 times to 24 times, its price remains high compared to the average level of about 20 times over the past 20 years.

Macro Outlook

Trump's remarks intensify market concerns, safe-haven sentiment surges

The S&P 500 index has fallen over 5% this year. According to Bloomberg compiled data, this is the largest quarterly performance gap since 1988. Notably, against the backdrop of a declining stock market, energy, healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples companies have performed well. These companies typically pay high dividends and are favored by income-focused investors when bond yields decline, making them the strongest sectors in the S&P 500 this quarter.

Before the tariff policy is officially implemented, Wall Street analysts are issuing warnings about U.S. stocks. David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, has lowered his year-end target for the S&P 500 index for the second time this month. He expects the index to close at 5,700 points by the end of the year, down from a previous estimate of 6,200 points. Advisors Asset Management CEO stated, "Traders are nervous, worried that the pace of economic slowdown is far exceeding expectations, and are thus seeking safety by turning to safe assets."

"Reciprocal" tariff policy may dominate global economic sentiment

Trump plans to announce new "reciprocal" tariff measures on April 2. Based on Trump's previous statements, the reciprocal tariffs will target "all countries," not just the 10 to 15 countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S.

Due to the potentially large scale of this round of tariffs, the market previously experienced a "panic" sell-off. If this tariff policy is relatively mild, there is a possibility of a strong rebound in the near future.

Non-farm payroll report and CPI data will be released soon, closely related to interest rate cuts

On April 4, the U.S. non-farm payroll report will be released; on April 10, the March CPI data will be announced. Both of these data points strongly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Although the February inflation data was relatively mild, if the March inflation data shows a rebound, it could weaken market expectations for recent interest rate cuts. The tightening of market liquidity will increase the volatility of crypto asset prices.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.