# Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March rises to 82.3%, with market expectations for rate cuts being pushed back.

• Investors are focusing on this week's non-farm employment and inflation data, which may show signs of economic weakness; the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in April is 32.4%, and 50.4% in June; after taking office, Waller may adjust forward guidance and the balance sheet.
• This expectation strengthens the resilience of the dollar, which may suppress the short-term rebound of risk assets, but if the data weakens, it will boost expectations for rate cuts.

International Commodities

Precious metals and oil prices rise, supported by a weak dollar and geopolitical risks.

• Spot gold rises by 1.9%, as a 0.8% drop in the dollar index enhances its attractiveness; Asian central banks have increased their gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, providing structural support; WTI crude oil rises by 1.3%, driven by tensions between the U.S. and Iran and missile threats from Iran.
• The rebound in commodities may exacerbate inflationary pressures, but geopolitical easing could reverse oil price trends.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump sets a 15% economic growth target, increasing pressure on the new Federal Reserve Chair Waller.

• Trump claims Waller could stimulate annual economic growth of 15%, far exceeding the historical average of 2.8%; former Federal Reserve Vice Chair expects Waller may cancel forward guidance, supporting two to three rate cuts; political uncertainty in the UK leads to a sell-off in government bonds.
• This optimistic target increases policy uncertainty, which may trigger market volatility and affect global growth expectations.

# Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: down 0.88% + maintaining above $5,000
• Spot Silver: down 2.38% + maintaining above $80
• WTI Crude Oil: down 0.08% + reported at $64.3
• Dollar Index: down 0.1% + reported at 96.965

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: down 0.85% to $69,860
• ETH: up 0.8% to $2,100
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: slightly up 0.4% to $2.46 trillion
• Market Liquidation Situation: $295 million total liquidation in 24 hours, with $154 million in long positions liquidated.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: up 0.04% + continuously setting closing highs
• S&P 500: up 0.47% + key feature is approaching historical highs
• Nasdaq: up 0.90% + sector driving factor is the rebound of tech stocks

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): up 2.50%, benefiting from AI spending expectations
• Apple (AAPL): down 1.17%, affected by overall market volatility
• Microsoft (MSFT): up 3.11%, despite rating downgrade but strong rebound
• Alphabet-A (GOOGL): up 0.45%, strong demand for bond issuance
• Amazon (AMZN): down 0.76%, revealing AI competitive pressure
• Meta (META): up 2.38%, platform openness requirements attract attention
• Tesla (TSLA): up 1.51%, steady progress in FSD; tech giants overall rebound, but the core reason lies in recovery from recent AI overspending concerns, with some stock rating adjustments increasing uncertainty.

Sector Movement Observation

Tech Sector up 1.6%

• Representative stock: Oracle, up 9.64%
• Driving factor: Rating upgrades boost the software services sub-sector, overall tech rebounds from declines.

Materials Sector significantly up

• Representative stock: none specified, but benefiting from rising gold and silver prices
• Driving factor: The rebound in precious metals provides support, inflation expectations strengthen.

# In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Oracle - Rating Upgrade Drives Stock Surge

Event Overview: Oracle's stock soared 9.6% on Monday, as multiple institutions upgraded their ratings, emphasizing its strong growth potential in the software services sector. The company benefits from the overall rebound in the tech sector, with the software services index rising 2.9%. In the background, the market recovers from last week's tech sell-off, with investors focusing on economic data to gauge the interest rate path. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe Oracle's core business is stable, and the outlook for AI integration is optimistic, but caution is advised regarding overall tech overspending risks. Investment Insight: Consider buying on dips in the short term, but pay attention to the impact of Federal Reserve data.

2. Alphabet - Plans to Issue $20 Billion in Bonds

Event Overview: Alphabet plans to raise $20 billion through dollar bonds, exceeding the initial expectation of $15 billion, with orders exceeding $100 billion. The longest-term bond has a spread of only 0.95%. This move aims to increase AI spending while issuing bonds for the first time in Switzerland and the UK, including a rare 100-year bond. The background is the rising financing needs of tech giants to cope with AI competition. Market Interpretation: Analysts point out that strong subscription demand reflects investor confidence, but long-term bonds highlight concerns about a tech bubble. Investment Insight: Financing expansion is favorable for long-term growth, suitable for holding observation.

3. Microsoft - Continuous Rating Downgrades

Event Overview: Microsoft faced two rating downgrades within a week, from "Buy" to "Hold," due to concerns over capital expenditures and competition for its Copilot product. Products like Anthropic's Cowork challenge its 365 suite, which may need to be offered for free to maintain relevance. The stock still rose 3.11%, but concerns about Azure growth have emerged. Market Interpretation: Institutions emphasize that AI resource consumption may limit performance surprises, and attention should be paid to inflation prospects. Investment Insight: Increased short-term volatility suggests waiting for clearer data.

4. Novo Nordisk - FDA Claims Weight Loss Drug Ads Misleading and Files Lawsuit

Event Overview: The FDA sent a letter to Novo Nordisk, stating that its Wegovy ads imply superiority over other GLP-1 drugs and address life challenges without data support. The stock fell from a 7% gain to less than 3% during trading. It also sued Hims & Hers for producing generic drugs, with Hims' stock dropping 16%. The background is intense competition in the weight loss drug market. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as a pharmaceutical giant's effort to protect patents, but regulatory pressure may impact growth. Investment Insight: Lawsuits may exert short-term pressure; watch for developments in generic drugs.

5. Meta - EU Antitrust Investigation Requires Platform Openness

Event Overview: The EU accuses Meta of using its market dominance to restrict competitors' access to the WhatsApp API, stifling AI competition. It plans to enforce temporary measures requiring platform openness. Meta rebuts the claims as unfounded. The background is the EU's strengthening of AI regulation to curb the advantages of tech giants. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this action delineates regulatory boundaries, which may increase compliance costs but does not change long-term prospects. Investment Insight: Rising regulatory risks suggest a diversified allocation.

# Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. South Korea calls for strengthened crypto regulations following Bithumb's unexpected $4 billion Bitcoin giveaway incident.

2. Bernstein maintains a $150,000 Bitcoin target, stating that bear market arguments are the weakest in history.

3. Melania Trump's meme coin performs better than Bitcoin amid market downturns.

4. Mike Henry predicts a rapid agreement on U.S. crypto regulation.

5. Bithumb recovers most of the $4.4 billion in unexpectedly gifted Bitcoin.

# Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: Later this week - Focus on employment growth and unemployment rate, which may impact the Federal Reserve's path.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): Later this week - Focus on inflation clues; weak data may support rate cuts.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Later this week - Assessing labor market strength.

Bitget Research Institute Views:

Goldman Sachs warns that the tech stock sell-off is not over, suggesting a shift to small-cap stocks that benefit from stimulus; JPMorgan expects no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026, with a strong dollar continuing to suppress commodities; BofA raises the gold price target to $5,000, viewing stagflation risks and fiscal policy as support; Barclays believes oil prices depend on Iranian risk premiums, with geopolitical easing potentially leading to a pullback; Citigroup views forex volatility as data-driven, with the pound and euro rebounding but increased pressure from UK political uncertainty. Overall, U.S. stocks, precious metals, crude oil, and forex show strong interconnections, with weak data potentially aiding rebounds.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and should not be considered as any investment advice.