Bitcoin returns to $80,000, sentiment drives the rebound, and "buying the dip" requires caution

After yesterday's sharp decline, the cryptocurrency market has begun to rebound. On April 8, 2025, Bitcoin briefly broke through $80,500 in the morning and is currently hovering around the $80,000 mark. Although Ethereum is also experiencing a rebound, its performance is noticeably weaker, with growing concerns about its long-term competitiveness in the market.

According to BTCC market data, BTC dropped to a low of $74,500 yesterday, leading the market downwards. However, a piece of false news in the evening stating that "U.S. tariffs will be delayed by 90 days" quickly spread through the market, triggering a comprehensive rebound in crypto assets. Bitcoin surged past $81,000 in a short time before pulling back, and is currently oscillating around $80,000 with a 24-hour increase of 0.7%.

"Buying the Dip" Requires Caution

The market experienced significant volatility last night, primarily due to a simple rumor—"tariffs will be delayed by 90 days," which instantly sparked the market's anxiety over "missing the bottom."

According to The Kobeissi Letter analysis, this behavior is a continuation of the "buying the dip" model from a few years ago. Investors are still betting on the Federal Reserve's market rescue, policy easing, or sudden positive news bringing a rebound, but whether this strategy is still applicable in the current environment of high inflation, high interest rates, and extreme uncertainty is a question worth reconsidering.

If the U.S.-China trade agreement is not reached by April 9, market panic may resurface, and the rebound could be short-lived.

Currently, Bitcoin faces two major resistance levels: first, the previously important support level of $81,211, which has now turned into strong resistance; second, the 0.618 retracement level of the hourly downtrend—$80,261, which has been touched in the morning but has not shown significant signs of a pullback.

Ethereum performed particularly weakly in yesterday's market, dipping to $1,411 at one point, ranking among the top declines among mainstream cryptocurrencies. Although there is a slight rebound today, its increase significantly lags behind Bitcoin, and the resistance at $1,600 remains difficult to break through. Data shows that ETH's market capitalization ratio has fallen to its lowest level in a year, raising doubts about Ethereum's core position in Web3, L2, and smart contract competition.

Dual Concerns of Macroeconomic Risks and Satoshi's "Black Swan"

The new round of tariff policies from the Trump administration has triggered a chain reaction of countermeasures from multiple economies, putting pressure on global risk assets. The current financial market is experiencing severe turbulence, with volatility in U.S. stocks and high U.S. Treasury yields, while the cryptocurrency market is in the extension zone of this storm.

Although the market holds expectations for the Federal Reserve to intervene, inflationary pressures remain high. In the absence of a severe systemic crisis, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to conduct large-scale interventions in the short term. Therefore, the market may continue to seek direction amid high volatility.

Investors should pay close attention to key data and events this week, including the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday, CPI data on Thursday, and PPI data on Friday, as these could serve as "barometers" for judging the market's direction in the next phase.

Additionally, it is worth noting that the market has recently begun to speculate again on the risks associated with Satoshi's holdings. According to foreign media reports, crypto lawyer James Murphy filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on April 7 under the Freedom of Information Act, claiming that the agency possesses information about Satoshi's true identity. This revelation quickly sparked market speculation.

It is estimated that Satoshi holds approximately 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for 5% of the total supply. These coins have never moved since their inception and are considered to be in a "dormant state." However, if Satoshi's identity were to be revealed or if there were any movements in his wallet address, it could trigger market fears of a massive sell-off, leading to extreme volatility or even systemic risks. Although the probability of this event is extremely low, it should not be overlooked as a black swan factor.

Behind the Rebound is Investor Sentiment Driving the Market

This round of rebound is not only driven by the "buying the dip" mentality of a bull market but also reflects the cryptocurrency market's high dependence on news. An unverified rumor of "tariff delays" propelled Bitcoin's price to surge by thousands of dollars in an instant. This reaction is not based on fundamentals or macro support but is a typical "emotion-driven market."

For retail investors, "buying the dip" remains the mainstream mentality, but this strategy should be approached with more rationality and caution. In an environment of extreme uncertainty, controlling positions, setting stop-loss orders, and avoiding high leverage are key to protecting capital and seeking steady gains. In short, not all rebounds are worth chasing, especially on the eve of a storm.