The escalation of tariff conflicts, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin has stopped falling and slightly rebounded

On April 9, 2025, Trump's reciprocal tariff policy officially took effect, escalating the risks of a global trade war. Trump is attempting to increase U.S. Treasury revenue through higher tariffs, a strategy that may reflect that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.

Trump's punitive tariff policy has disrupted decades of global trade order, triggering a new round of declines in the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets. According to Bloomberg, the global stock market has lost $10 trillion in value. This trade conflict may exert greater pressure on the global economy and affect the overall trend of cryptocurrencies and market liquidity.

This week, macroeconomic indicators are worth paying attention to. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting at 12:00 AM Eastern Time on April 10, with the market largely expecting the Fed to signal interest rate cuts, anticipating three cuts of 25 basis points each within the year.

Additionally, on Thursday (April 10) at 8:30 PM, the U.S. will announce the March CPI (Consumer Price Index) data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. These two data points will directly influence market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy direction, potentially triggering volatility in both the cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. On Friday (April 11), the March PPI (Producer Price Index) data will be released, further providing clues about inflationary pressures.

Today, Bitcoin prices showed signs of a rebound, rising from a morning low of $74,650 to $77,930. According to BTCC market data, as of the time of writing, the BTC price is $77,203, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to 2.44%. Bitcoin is experiencing significant short-term volatility, so please pay attention to the dual impact of policy expectations and market sentiment.

At that time, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and signaled expectations of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year. This policy signal triggered relatively optimistic expectations in the market, especially against the backdrop of high global economic uncertainty, where rate cuts could become an important means to alleviate economic pressure and support risk assets.

Specifically, if the minutes show that Fed officials have strong concerns about rising inflation, the market may interpret this as a still hawkish policy path, which would suppress rate cut expectations and even strengthen rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets. Conversely, if the minutes mention signs of economic slowdown, especially with increasing pressure in the banking sector, this could further support expectations for rate cuts, providing liquidity support for the cryptocurrency market.

Moreover, if the CPI and PPI data indicate rising inflationary pressures, it may intensify market concerns about the Fed maintaining a high interest rate policy. Such expectations could lead to significant selling pressure on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, especially as the market is currently in a "high volatility, low directionality" state. Conversely, if the inflation data meets or falls below expectations, particularly continuing a cooling trend, it could stimulate market expectations for rate cuts, once again providing liquidity support for the cryptocurrency market and driving up prices for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

From a technical perspective, if inflation data strengthens tightening expectations, Bitcoin may face downside risks, testing key support levels (such as the $70,000-$74,000 range). If the data is weak, it may trigger short covering and a rebound, further pushing up Bitcoin prices.

In summary, in the short term, tariff policies, the Fed's monetary policy, inflation data, and global economic uncertainty will be the main factors influencing the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should pay attention to risk management.