The Great God said: 5.5 Sell in May is coming! Will this month break the pattern?
Historically, the next few months are often a slow season for financial markets, and many investors follow the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and Walk Away."The U.S. stock market saw a significant rise last Friday, with all three major indices climbing. The S&P 500 index performed particularly well, closing higher for the ninth consecutive trading day, setting a record for the longest winning streak in nearly 20 years. Behind this surge are two key drivers: first, a better-than-expected non-farm payroll report alleviated concerns about a potential economic slowdown; second, signs of easing trade relations between China and the U.S. boosted market optimism.
According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, significantly higher than the market expectation of 138,000. Although this figure is slightly down from the revised 185,000 in March, it remains strong. This report effectively eased market worries about a rapid deterioration of the U.S. economy, thereby enhancing investors' risk appetite.
In addition to positive economic data, the easing of China-U.S. trade relations has also injected optimism into the market. The Ministry of Commerce stated on Thursday that it is evaluating the possibility of resuming trade negotiations with the U.S., but emphasized that the U.S. needs to show sincerity, particularly in preparing to address key issues such as the cancellation of unilateral tariff increases.
However, based on historical experience, the upcoming months are often a slow season for financial markets, and many investors follow the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and Walk Away." Nevertheless, this year's market atmosphere may break past patterns. Bitcoin has performed quite weakly over the past few months, but this year it may go against the trend, with the potential to challenge the $98,000 mark, and recent growth stocks are also showing signs of recovery. Although the latest U.S. GDP data was slightly weak, increasing the risk of economic recession, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts, it could bring a new wave of rebound momentum to the market.
In the cryptocurrency sector, after failing to break the $98,000 mark on the 2nd, Bitcoin's price plummeted, reaching a low of $93,445. As of the time of writing, the price is quoted at $94,334, with a decline of about 1.83% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
Bitcoin's price has broken below the middle band and is approaching the lower band, with the Bollinger Bands widening, indicating increased volatility. If it cannot hold the support at the lower band, a further decline may accelerate. The KDJ indicators show oversold conditions, but the rebound of the J line suggests a potential short-term stabilization opportunity. In the MACD indicator, the DIF line is far below the DEA line, and the green histogram continues to expand, indicating a clear bearish trend, with no signs of bottom divergence or golden cross reversal yet. The current price is hovering around 94,335 (23.6% retracement level), which is a key short-term level. If this support is lost, it may test 93,238 (0.0% retracement level); if it can hold, resistance is seen at 95,011 (38.2%) and 95,564 (50.0%). Short-term focus should be on the gains and losses around 94,335; if it breaks below, the market may weaken further.
Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, I would rather provide you with a correct mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them a fish; a suggestion may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset can earn you a lifetime! What matters is the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning the market layout and position. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and business management in the right direction.
Time of writing: (2025-05-05, 13:00)
(Text - Master Coin Talks)
