Can Bitcoin reach a new high this year?

Source: Talking about Li and the Outside

Many people are still leaving comments asking whether we are in a bull market. In response to this question, we reiterate what we said in previous articles: Have you ever seen a bear market with Bitcoin at $90,000? Or, if you believe that the current Bitcoin price of $95,000 falls into the bear market category, then what do you think the so-called bull market price should be?

Whether it’s a so-called bull market or bear market, trading in Bitcoin will certainly never disappear. The only difference in this market is that some people pursue short-term gains, some pursue long-term gains, while others do not even understand what they are trading.

Since Bitcoin rebounded to around $94,700 (the Fibonacci 0.236 level) around April 22 last month, it has been consolidating sideways for more than 10 days. From the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges, it appears that Bitcoin has once again experienced a noticeable quick inflow followed by a sustained outflow. As shown in the figure below.

Additionally, from the above chart, we can see that when Bitcoin dropped from its historical high of $109,000 on January 20 to around $99,000 on February 5, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges also experienced a significant inflow, followed by nearly 20 days of sideways consolidation in Bitcoin's price.

However, the difference is that last time Bitcoin was in a daily-level downward trend, while this time it is in a daily-level upward trend. Meanwhile, since there are several important meetings and data releases in the U.S. in May, including the FOMC meeting on May 7 (Eastern Time), the SEC's crypto roundtable on May 12, CPI data on May 13, and retail sales data on May 15, we may continue to face short-term volatility in the next 1-2 weeks.

Looking at a longer timeframe, such as the weekly level, if no new black swan events occur, we might actually see Bitcoin break its historical high again in the second quarter of this year.

Of course, since there has been no fundamental change in the overall macroeconomic situation, we should not be overly optimistic. We should not shout for $150,000, $200,000, or even $1,000,000 just because Bitcoin might rise. This is similar to how many people were shouting for $50,000 or $40,000 when Bitcoin was falling a couple of months ago.

Theoretically, even if Bitcoin has the opportunity to break new highs in the second quarter (May and June), it may not rise too much. We believe it is more likely to remain in a new high range and enter a phase of consolidation, unless there are significant new positive policy factors or macro data (mainly from the U.S.) to stimulate it.

We mentioned the changes in the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges earlier. Since the overall balance on exchanges is continuously decreasing, it means that individuals/institutions are continuously accumulating Bitcoin, such as withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to cold wallets or for other uses. From the current on-chain statistics, it seems that a large portion of Bitcoin has flowed into institutional custody accounts, as shown in the figure below.

When talking about institutions, the first ones that come to mind might be BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Taking MicroStrategy as an example, according to their latest data, as of April 28, 2025, MicroStrategy holds a total of 553,555 Bitcoins, with an average acquisition cost of $68,478. As shown in the figure below.

In April of this year, MicroStrategy purchased a total of 25,370 Bitcoins, 29,089 Bitcoins in March, 27,989 Bitcoins in February, and 24,707 Bitcoins in January…

Currently, Bitcoin miners produce about 13,500 Bitcoins per month, which means that the current Bitcoin production seems unable to meet the accumulation demand of MicroStrategy alone. If we look at this data from another angle, does it mean that the continuous accumulation of Bitcoin by institutions will further compress the supply curve of Bitcoin, causing it to enter a "man-made" halving market, making Bitcoin even more "scarce"?

Perhaps, one day in the future, Bitcoin's price will no longer be constrained by the existing four-year halving cycle or even by the crypto market, but will be priced by a superpower (currently the U.S.). However, even if Bitcoin really reaches $1,000,000 by then, it is likely that it will not have much of a beneficial effect for most retail investors (but this will not stop most retail investors from continuing to chase highs and cut losses), because by that time, ordinary retail investors will probably not have much Bitcoin left.

Of course, all of the above are just theoretical possibilities for the future. No one can predict the future accurately, and many people still believe that Bitcoin will eventually go to zero. This is a matter of perspective.

The only advice we can give now is that as Bitcoin is continuously adopted from the bottom up (from retail investors to institutions, and then to countries), it seems that Bitcoin has gradually shifted from being driven by halving, retail investors, and market dynamics to being driven by accelerated capital. We need to accept and adapt to this change in the rules of the game, try to ignore short-term prices, and extend our time horizon. Without affecting your daily quality of life, strive to accumulate a bit more Bitcoin, even if it’s just one Bitcoin, as this may become one of your most important personal assets in the future.

We mainly discussed Bitcoin above, and at the end of the article, let’s briefly talk about altcoins.

In the current altcoin market, it often seems to completely disregard historical patterns, for example:

• New coins listed on Binance drop significantly, while coins announced for delisting by Binance hit new historical highs. For instance, the Alpaca (ALPACA) token surged nearly 12 times within three days after being announced for delisting. In this market, it seems that the lines between good and bad news are becoming increasingly blurred, and some previous judgment logic no longer applies to the current market, replaced by manipulation of human nature and various blatant manipulations.

• Binance Alpha points seem to have opened a new era of altcoin farming, and now it seems everyone is trying to earn points, while Binance continues to support this through various activities (encouraging users to earn points). In the past, people would ask: Which tenfold or hundredfold coin should I invest in now? Now they ask: How many points do you have? Did you get a share of this pig rice meal?

• Stablecoins are continuously being issued, currently reaching a historical high of $241.9 billion, but the market cap of altcoins has not grown as expected. For example, during the bull market from 2020 to 2021, for every $1 increase in stablecoins, the overall market cap of altcoins could increase by $8.3. However, in the current bull market of 2024-2025, for every $1 increase in stablecoins, the market cap of altcoins can only increase by $1.5.

• Celebrity coins have entered a new round of pay-to-win gameplay (for example, players who invest in the Trump token can have dinner with the U.S. president), and Japanese voluptuous actresses have also joined the token game (not sure if there will be a meeting for otaku fans later)…

In summary, many things seem to be undergoing different changes than before. However, one pattern that still seems to remain unchanged is that when Bitcoin begins to enter a high-level consolidation phase, altcoins will still present some new opportunities. For example, after Bitcoin achieved a phase price rebound recently, many altcoins under the AI concept experienced a general rise.

To summarize, the difference between the current so-called altcoin season and previous cycles is that in the past, almost all altcoins had the opportunity to perform, while now only a few altcoins have the chance to shine. We have discussed this point in our previous series of articles on altcoins, and interested readers can continue to search and review historical articles.

Since the beginning of this cycle, for most retail investors, facing an increasing number of projects and altcoins, as well as the growing knowledge required, the opportunities to make money have become fewer (or more difficult)… This may be a common reality issue at present.

However, fewer opportunities do not mean no opportunities, and there are still more opportunities in the crypto field than in other areas. Many people always hope to pursue others' "fruits" while ignoring the "causes" behind them, and this reversal of cause and effect often leads to their own failures or losses.

In fact, investing is not afraid of failure or loss, but rather of being unaware of one's failures and getting deeper into trouble. Strong individuals never complain about their environment because they are the ones who create it, while as weaker individuals, we just need to maintain a strategy that suits us (the best strategies are often simple), keep a record and reflect on our successes and failures (especially failures), and achieve unity of thought and action. When the strong are feasting, we just need to be satisfied with sipping soup and withdrawing.

As the old saying goes, try to stay focused according to your risk preference. There is no need to attempt to participate in and grasp every money-making opportunity in all projects or methods. In this field, there is basically no such thing as a simple, safe way to make a lot of money in the short term. As long as we persist and excel in 1-2 things (niche areas) that we have chosen or are best at, we will be ahead of most other retail investors.