The Cryptographic Adventure of MapleStory: NXPC Creates Wealth Effect, Will the Spring of Chain Games Return?

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

Do you remember the "MapleStory" that accompanied you in monster hunting, team building, and costume changing?

Younger players may not have experienced it, but this 20-year-old gaming masterpiece carries the internet café memories of many post-80s and post-90s generations, and is also one of the marks of the era when online games entered China after the millennium.

Now, it has transformed into a new darling of blockchain games.

The English name of MapleStory is MapleStory, and on May 15, the governance token NXPC of the blockchain version MapleStory Universe, which shares the same IP, was launched on exchanges such as Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, Gate.io, Bybit, Deepcoin, Bitget, Weex, and MEXC; the project token NXPC's price directly broke through $3, with FDV soaring to $3 billion.

Accompanying the price surge is the discussion about NXPC's large airdrop of "pork rice."

Under the current Binance Alpha points system, users who meet certain criteria will also receive NXPC airdrops; based on NXPC's price at the time of writing, general users can earn over 600 U from a single airdrop, making it the most attractive "airdrop benefit" of the year.

Many players jokingly ask if there is still a chance to return to BSC, as the wealth effect has once again gathered attention. "MapleStory" itself represents the nostalgia of old players while also bringing some hope to the lagging blockchain game sector.

Blockchain games, a sector that has been effectively disproven by the market, can it still thrive?

Is NXPC Really Viable?

We can look at the current surge of NXPC from two directions: whether the project itself is viable, and how it compares to its predecessors in the blockchain game sector.

NXPC is the governance token of MapleStory Universe, launched by NEXPACE, a blockchain subsidiary of the South Korean gaming giant Nexon. MapleStory, as a classic MMORPG that has been operating for 20 years, has over 180 million cumulative players worldwide and historical revenue reaching $4 billion, making it one of the evergreen titles in the gaming industry.

Now, Nexon is moving this IP onto the blockchain, attempting to create a community-driven digital economy ecosystem through MapleStory Universe.

From the project's white paper, the total supply of NXPC is 1 billion tokens, of which 16.37% (approximately 163.7 million tokens) are immediately unlocked through airdrops, and 80% is reserved for future ecological rewards, aimed at incentivizing long-term participation from players and creators.

NXPC also has a sister token, NESO, used for in-game trading scenarios, which can be freely exchanged with NXPC, forming a dual-token model. This design attempts to find a balance between game economy and token value, but it has also led many investors to sniff out "gold farming" opportunities.

From this economic model, it still follows the "main token - sub-token - NFT asset" cyclical pattern, where one token acts as the platform token, possessing governance or staking functions while acquiring various rights designed within the game; the other token is purely used as in-game currency for consumption, with both tokens working together to support the economic cycle of NFT equipment and items in the game.

This is not fundamentally different from the gameplay of most previous blockchain games.

If we compare it to previously popular projects in the blockchain game sector, it seems we can calculate a fair price range.

Has NXPC's current price above $3 already hit a ceiling?

Using NXPC's current circulation of 16.37% (approximately 163.7 million tokens) as a baseline, and referencing the current market values and historical peaks of leading projects like Gala Games, The Sandbox, Decentraland, Axie Infinity, and Mobox, we can make a theoretical estimation:

Current Market Value Comparison: At NXPC's current price of $3 (at the time of writing), it is already higher than Mobox's $0.24 and Axie Infinity's $2.17, comparable to Decentraland's $3.4.

If we benchmark against the market values of Gala Games and The Sandbox at $703 million and $691 million, NXPC's price could potentially challenge the $4.06-$4.13 range.

However, compared to Mobox's undervaluation, NXPC's current price seems to already include high market expectations.

Historical Peak Comparison: Looking back at the blockchain game bull market of 2021-2022, Gala Games and The Sandbox had market values as high as $6.9-$7 billion. If we estimate based on the historical peak market values of these projects during that market environment, their prices could potentially challenge the $15-$40 range.

But the premise is that NXPC must replicate the ecological activity and market frenzy of those projects back then.

From a fundamental perspective, the gaming sector itself does not have any particularly significant narrative or technological breakthroughs; relying solely on the old "MapleStory" IP to drive prices to this range seems overly optimistic.

Instant Effects

From the current data, NXPC appears more like a fluctuation in capital.

The funding rate for the Binance NXPC/USDT perpetual contract once dropped to -2%, and is currently at -0.7%, meaning that shorts need to pay fees to longs. This kind of negative premium is often a precursor to a short squeeze—where a large number of short positions are forced to close, pushing prices further up.

At the same time, NXPC's first day of trading on major exchanges like Binance ensured short-term trading depth and liquidity; the continuous listing of contracts on numerous exchanges further stimulated speculative capital inflow.

MEXC data shows that NXPC's 24-hour trading volume reached $6.85 million, indicating a clear speculative sentiment.

Returning to the fundamentals, NXPC's value realization also faces significant challenges.

First, the game is currently in the public testing phase, and player retention rates and the stability of the economic model have yet to be tested by the market. The lessons from Axie Infinity tell us that if blockchain game projects rely too heavily on speculation while neglecting player experience and economic balance, they ultimately struggle to last.

Secondly, NXPC's value is highly dependent on the activity of the creator economy.

NXPC emphasizes the creator economy rather than a simple "gold farming" model. MapleStory Universe allows players and creators to produce content through Synergy Apps, such as designing unique equipment or levels, and minting them as NFTs for trading through NXPC.

If creator participation is insufficient, or if the NFT item trading market has low liquidity, NXPC's demand may significantly decline. Shifting from a purely "Play-to-Earn" model to "Create-to-Earn" is not a new concept; we have seen it repeatedly in our previous observations of blockchain game projects.

From the reactions on crypto Twitter, NXPC's hype indeed benefits from the dual support of the MapleStory IP's appeal and the wealth effect, but the community's focus is more on short-term gains rather than the long-term value of the game ecosystem.

Another key point is that this is a South Korean game, and it is an undeniable fact that young people in South Korea are keen on trading cryptocurrencies, which gives the market the potential to drive NXPC's rise; changes in indicators on Upbit may have a greater impact on NXPC's fate.

However, you cannot conclude that the entire garden is thriving just because one flower is blooming beautifully. The fate of blockchain games remains uncertain.

MapleStory has restarted its adventure in the crypto world, but it faces many young players who have already left the scene due to losses in blockchain games.