Bitcoin breaks through $110,000 to set a new historical high. Why haven't many people made money?

Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside

Today (May 22), the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $110,000, setting a new historical high, as shown in the figure below.

Looking back now, over the past six months, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated, causing many people's positions to be shaken off. Although the price has now risen to a historical high of $110,000, people's emotions seem to be less excited than before.

Reflecting on the past six months, my holdings have not changed at all; the only change has been the balance in my wallet (valued in U), which has been fluctuating. However, according to the original plan, since Bitcoin reached the second target position set earlier today, I personally chose to sell 10% of my holdings before publishing this article. The last time I reduced my position was on December 5, 2024, when Bitcoin's price first broke $100,000. I remember I even published an article to commemorate that moment, as shown in the figure below.

In the past six months, I have hardly made any trades; most of my spare time and energy have been devoted to writing for my media platform. Since the beginning of the year, I have written nearly 300,000 words of notes, of which about 180,000 words have been organized and published in article (text and image) form through the Talking Li, Talking Outside public account, averaging about 1,200 words shared daily.

However, compared to last year (2024), when I averaged over 2,000 words daily, the volume of content has almost halved. Perhaps in the future, my sharing will further decrease; in fact, the reason I can still maintain sharing weekly is more due to the habit I have formed (habitual persistence). I no longer care much about issues like private domain traffic or public domain traffic.

Of course, the results of this habit have both good and bad aspects. The good side is that Talking Li, Talking Outside has received quite a few positive comments; the downside is that I have also received some targeted messages and comments. Fortunately, I am quite laid-back and do not care about various evaluations or judgments regarding what others have said (or written) about me, as some rights and wrongs may take longer to verify.

But to put it another way, even if in the end, it turns out to be right or wrong, what does it matter? Different people often have different perspectives on issues, which can lead to different outcomes. Although I hope that every partner who reads the articles from Talking Li, Talking Outside can gain something in the crypto field, my personal views, thoughts, and strategies, whether right or wrong, can ultimately only be responsible for my own results (positions).

1. Why haven't many people made money?

A few days ago, someone left a comment in the background asking me an interesting question: Bitcoin has risen to $100,000 again, but why do many people around me still not make money?

This question may need to be analyzed in different situations:

On one hand, it may be due to the subjective observations and feelings of each person. For example, in some group chats that this partner joined or among some friends, many people are discussing that they haven't made money.

On the other hand, we can directly observe through certain on-chain indicators. For instance, in the "Bitcoin Indicator Template" we previously organized, there is a metric called Percent Supply in Profit, which can measure the proportion of Bitcoin in circulation that was bought at a price lower than the current price (meaning these holders are in a profit state). As shown in the figure below.

From the above figure, we can see that the value of this indicator has once again exceeded 90% (reaching 99%), which means that most Bitcoin holders are currently in a profit state. However, at the same time, this optimistic market performance may also indicate that we are once again at a phase (note that it is a phase, not a long-term) top area. As for how long this phase can last, I don't know; it may be a few weeks or 1-2 months.

Of course, this Percent Supply in Profit is just one indicator dimension. If needed, you can continue to use other indicators like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), Long-Term Holder / Short-Term Holder Supply, etc., for more comprehensive assistance and evaluation.

In short, the question of why Bitcoin has risen to $100,000 again, but many people around me still haven't made money, may need to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis, considering each person's entry time, position ratio, holding coins, holding costs, etc.

Although theoretically, under a generally certain big trend, many people should be able to make money, the game between the market and human nature always exists. I remember we mentioned earlier that in this field, perhaps 99% of people ultimately do not make money or even lose money. Those who can earn over a million dollars a year are actually rare, perhaps less than 0.1%.

For example, continuing with Bitcoin, this cycle has risen from around $15,000 to the current $110,000, which is almost a 7-fold increase, but the proportion of those who can truly achieve significant returns seems to be quite small. From our perspective, the core reason for this issue is that many people have not established and adhered to their own trading rules (or trading systems).

Throughout the entire year of 2024, we organized a lot of methodological content through Talking Li, Talking Outside, and most of it has been compiled into the e-book "Blockchain Methodology." The main purpose of doing this is twofold: first, as a form of learning, thinking, and recording from my personal perspective, serving myself; second, to share it with others, hoping that those in need can find suitable points from it and establish their own trading rules through analogy.

However, after one bull market after another, it seems that there are not many who can endure long-term loneliness and maintain focus and patience. This reminds me of the classic line from "The Future is Uncertain": "I've heard many truths, yet I still can't live this life well."

But I can understand this very well, as I have gone through this journey myself, and some truths I am still in the process of contemplating. The reason I have persisted in writing and taking notes over the past few years is mainly to hope that I can always maintain focus and calm thinking, rather than spending all my time staring at the market and trading frequently.

In this society, what we encounter the most are actually truths, such as various life truths, truths about interpersonal relationships, truths about investing and making money, etc. However, for many people, most of these truths only sound reasonable and do not truly change their life trajectories just because they have heard or understood certain truths. Some truths require practical application; understanding them without practice does not count as truly understanding.

For example, many parents always educate their children by saying, "You need to study hard, or you will suffer in the future." But this truth can only be established at the level of hearing (or understanding) for the child. If you directly take the child to a remote rural area to farm during the holidays or throw them onto a construction site to experience life, then the child will probably understand the truth in no time.

From an investment perspective, this seems to confirm the saying: the experience of making money is often learned through losses; it is hard to teach directly. People cannot learn from each other, but they can learn from experiences. Many people enter the crypto field and incur losses in their first bull market cycle, spend the second bull market cycle mainly recovering their losses, and only in the third bull market cycle might they start to earn real money.

2. What mindset should we maintain in the upcoming market?

1) Continue to stay focused

This market will not lack opportunities to make money; the key is to find the way that suits you best among various money-making opportunities.

A person cannot seize every market opportunity. If you are always chasing various market hotspots and trying to grab every opportunity, constantly changing your plans due to FOMO, the final outcome may be losses.

There is a saying: if you chase two rabbits at the same time, you will end up catching neither.

Therefore, we need to maintain discipline and focus only on 1-3 subfields that interest us the most and have the best prospects, and long-term focus on projects with fundamentals and narrative potential. Only those who can endure 99% of the garbage time will have the opportunity to enjoy that 1% of shining moments.

2) Preserve existing profits

In previous articles, we have mentioned several times that preserving existing profits is more important than earning more risk-adjusted returns, especially during a bull market.

If you only invest in Bitcoin, it might be okay because Bitcoin is not afraid of being stuck. As long as you are not in a hurry for money and have enough patience, even if there are temporary losses in trading Bitcoin, over time, you are likely to recover and make a profit. Just like the friends who were stuck at the peak of $100,000 last year, if they held on until today, haven't they successfully recovered?

However, for altcoins, unless you have enough persistence and are willing to invest funds that you can accept losing for long-term bets, you should not get deeper into one or several altcoin projects.

From my personal experience, although it is relatively difficult to play altcoins in this cycle, many people have actually gained from altcoins. For example, I heard that some partners in the group made 5-10 times their investment in a certain altcoin last year, but they continued to fantasize about achieving 20 times or even 50 times returns, holding on without selling, and in the end, not only did they lose all their profits, but they even lost some of their principal.

Altcoins can sometimes rise quickly, but when they fall, they can fall even faster. When they rise, you may feel like you are becoming a big shot, but once they start to drop, you will feel like you are not even a grandchild. Here, we reiterate an old saying: in altcoin investment plans, always maintain liquidity, protect your principal, and if you don't understand, don't touch it. When buying, consider buying in batches, and when selling, consider selling in batches. If you can't grasp the long-term direction well, then in short-term operations, just strictly implement profit-taking and stop-loss strategies.

3) Use time wisely

The crypto market trades 24/7, but we cannot stay awake 24/7. Therefore, we need to plan and utilize our time wisely while also maintaining our physical health. Don't choose to stay up late and exhaust yourself just to watch the market.

Especially in trading, there are currently many tools available to assist your operations. For example, you can use some bots to execute trading plans, use alert tools to remind yourself of key market fluctuations, or you can use the simplest order placement method for trading operations, etc. When you gradually shift from trading 10 times a day to trading once a day, and then to trading once a week… you may find that your mind and thoughts become clearer.

As for learning, this mainly depends on personal preference. Currently, there is a vast amount of information online, and there is also a lot of garbage information. Different bloggers often have different viewpoints and content styles; you just need to choose those bloggers or content that interest you to follow or check out.

Additionally, you can use some ready-made on-chain tools to more intuitively understand and discover the dimensional data you need, which will also help optimize your time and energy. We have previously organized a lot of on-chain data indicators in our articles, so I won't elaborate further here. Interested partners can search and review the historical articles of Talking Li, Talking Outside.

Of course, using time wisely is to facilitate better trading and learning, but trading is not just about buying and selling, and learning is not just about looking or reading. If you can also record your feelings and summaries through notes (diaries or weekly journals), and persist in doing so, I believe you will definitely gain more.

At the end of the article, let's briefly review some viewpoints from the past two months (March 22 - May 22) from previous articles of Talking Li, Talking Outside:

March 24 article: As for when new trend changes or phase reversals will occur, I do not know. Here, I can casually guess that if the market continues to encounter new black swan events, we may see Bitcoin starting with 7 again (a new entry opportunity for investors). If the market continues to slowly climb according to the current (recent weeks) pace, then perhaps in the second quarter of this year, we will see some new phase opportunities (a new selling opportunity for speculators).

March 26 article: Precisely because the market has uncertainties, it creates new opportunities. Everyone knows that the sun will definitely rise from the east tomorrow, so there won't be any money-making opportunities in that (no one will bet on which direction the sun will rise tomorrow). But if I tell you (this is just an example and assumption) that there is a 75% chance Bitcoin will see a price starting with 9 in the next few weeks and a 25% chance it will continue to see a price starting with 7, then there will actually be certain opportunities in that situation. In such uncertain circumstances, what will you do? Trading is not about luck; it is about discipline and systems. Think about what your ultimate goal is, then keep persisting, and never take risks that exceed what you can afford to lose in any trade.

March 28 article: As for whether Pendle can still be bought, I cannot provide specific buying or selling advice (I do not give any specific trading guidance). If you feel the urge to trade Pendle, one of the simplest methods is to refer to the ideas in one of our articles from last year (November 12, 2024) for some necessary research before deciding whether to participate. In that article, we used AAVE as an example and listed several simple ideas and methods for quickly selecting projects.

March 31 article: The market is cruel, and volatility is relentless. Only those who prepare in advance during market silence and those who can remain calm when most people are collapsing can achieve the results they desire in the new chaos. An individual's return on investment is often determined by their trading discipline and personal mindset.

April 1 article: On March 24, 2025, Global M2 reached a phase peak of $109 trillion. Unless new, larger black swan events occur, perhaps in June 2025, BTC may rebound to a phase high again. As ordinary investors, we seem unable to change the overall situation; the only thing we can change is our own positions (protecting our positions and patiently waiting for new opportunities to make money).

April 5 article: How others define a bear or bull market is not important to you, and seeking validation for such questions is not very meaningful for yourself. The key is how you view the issues of bull and bear markets. We believe: the current stage has not yet reached a true bear market, or it can also be described as merely a phase bear market (or a large-scale correction). If we extend the cycle, it is highly probable that Bitcoin will continue to reach new highs; it just depends on whether you can wait until that time. Maintaining patience is not easy, but I believe it is what is most needed right now.

April 7 article: If you don't know what to do, then in the current intense volatility, the best action is to do nothing. If you still have spare positions for long-term investment, and these funds will not affect your real life, then the upcoming decline is still an opportunity for you to gradually accumulate (reserve) Bitcoin. In other words, as ordinary investors, the core position should be used to continue accumulating more Bitcoin at lower prices, which remains a relatively safe and simple operational strategy.

April 10 article: Although many people now say we are in a full bear market, regardless of how others see it, from a longer-term perspective regarding Bitcoin, we still believe it is bullish, and the current position of $76,000 also appears to be a relatively good support level. Whether Bitcoin is currently at $82,000 or may continue to drop to the $7 range or even the $6 range, you can still consider accumulating in batches within the current fluctuation range.

April 14 article: Market cycles are essentially a series of repetitions. Sometimes bubbles grow larger and then shrink repeatedly; sometimes bubbles burst and then new bubbles are formed… Although each cycle has its unique aspects (such as different time lengths, varying policy impacts, different narrative stories, etc.), as long as we understand the basic relationship between the market and liquidity, such as understanding the relationship between policy, inflation, and money printing, we can always find some commonalities in the market, which is where we can amplify and utilize.

April 18 article: We can choose to buy only gold in phases, or only Bitcoin in phases, or we can buy both gold and Bitcoin simultaneously for long-term reserves. This is determined by your personal preferences, position allocation, and risk management. Short-term investments rely on technical analysis (ability to grasp indicators, filter information, analyze data, etc.), while long-term investments depend on mindset (investment logic, grasping cycle trends, values, etc.). If your focus can only see the present but lacks good technical support for trading, such as seeing a target rise or become popular and then abandoning your existing target to chase highs or trends, under such a repeated investment mindset, the final result may be that you end up with nothing.

April 24 article: When Bitcoin reaches a certain high proportion (for example, around 65%), it often indicates that a new round of altcoin season may be approaching. However, in the current overall market environment, if you want to continue seizing possible altcoin opportunities, it is best to prioritize focusing on mainstream coins (such as SOL, ETH, or other leading coins in various sectors) while also controlling your position ratios carefully. Do not let yourself fall into new pitfalls with altcoins (especially low-quality coins) again.

May 1 article: If no new black swan events occur, we may indeed see Bitcoin break its historical high again in the second quarter of this year. Theoretically, even if Bitcoin has the opportunity to continue breaking new highs in the second quarter (May and June), it may not rise too much. We believe it is likely to remain in a new high range and enter a phase of consolidation unless there are significant new positive drivers from policy factors or macro data (mainly from the U.S.). Try to ignore short-term prices and extend your time horizon. As long as it does not affect your quality of life, strive to accumulate a bit more Bitcoin, even if it is just one Bitcoin; this may become one of your most important personal assets in the future.

May 8 article: Currently, the rise in Bitcoin's price seems to be more driven by news and primarily by institutional hedging and speculation. This may lead to a so-called short squeeze, where previously overly leveraged short positions may be liquidated by the market, pushing Bitcoin back up to $100,000 or even higher. However, whether this price increase is sustainable or how long it can last may require us to raise a new question. The core and underlying logic of the market remains liquidity. As long as there is no fundamental change in liquidity itself, the rapid price rise is both an opportunity and a risk in the short term.

May 12 article: Currently, Bitcoin's price seems to have returned to a suitable level, and it appears that breaking the historical high again is just a step away. Ethereum's price has also seen a short-term violent surge, and some altcoins seem to be stirring. However, from a macro perspective, there are still some uncertainties. Therefore, we believe that the current market still belongs to Bitcoin's bull market, and it seems that short-term speculative market motivations are greater. The more this is the case, the more we need to maintain rationality, not to be influenced by the current optimistic price sentiment, and not to casually chase highs or go all-in. We need to control our position ratios, such as how much of the position is allocated to BTC, how much to ETH, how much to blue-chip altcoins (like BNB, SOL, PENDLE, LINK, AAVE, etc.), how much needs to remain liquid (USDC/USDT), and how much is intended for speculation on low liquidity or low market cap coins… All of these need to be reasonably planned according to personal risk preferences.