Highlights of the Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Decision: Comparison of FOMC Language, Powell's Term, and Federal Reserve Independence
ChainCatcher news, according to industry sources, the highlights of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision are as follows:
FOMC Statement:
Voting Ratio: The rate decision is likely to pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Governors Bowman and Waller expected to vote against it.
Wording Comparison: There is unlikely to be any substantial changes, possibly simplifying the expression of economic uncertainty and acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year.
Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly probable that it will remain unchanged (reducing $5 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS each month).
Powell's Press Conference:
Interest Rate Outlook: How to interpret the "two rate cuts" expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will there be any clues regarding the possibility of a rate cut in September?
Economic Data: It is expected to emphasize the importance of data, continuing the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decision-making.
Inflation and Tariffs: It may remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to maintaining price stability; if it emphasizes the upward risk of inflation from tariffs, it could be more hawkish than expected.
Term and Independence: In the face of frequent pressure from Trump, it is unlikely to make any substantial response, expected to reaffirm independence and professionalism during the term. (Jin Shi)
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