Before the non-farm payroll data is released, CME expects the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut to reach 99.3%

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August will be released tonight. Prior to this, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 99.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0.7%.

On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is relatively conservative, currently at 88%.

Additionally, derivatives contracts used to bet on the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicate that by the end of next year, the Federal Reserve will have cut rates a total of five times (25 basis points each time), lowering the federal funds rate from the current range of 4.25%-4.5% to about 3%.