Matrixport Market Observation: The cryptocurrency market is fully rebounding, BTC is approaching new highs, and structural opportunities are emerging

Entering October 2025, the cryptocurrency market has welcomed a long-awaited strong rebound. BTC has climbed to around $126,200, and ETH has surpassed $4,957, both recording significant gains. The key factors supporting this rebound are the improvement in macro liquidity and the clearing of industry risks: the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00--4.25% range since mid-September and is expected to lower rates by another 50--75 basis points within the year. The weakening dollar and declining real interest rates have significantly enhanced the attractiveness of risk assets. Meanwhile, the previous deleveraging has been completed, and the passive liquidation pressure on bulls has been released, laying the foundation for the rebound. On-chain data shows that capital inflows and trading activity have risen in tandem, providing fundamental support for the market recovery.

Rising Risk Aversion, Gold Hits New Highs

International gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce (data source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council), reaching a historic high. The weakening dollar, rising geopolitical risks, and central banks' continued accumulation of gold have jointly driven the strong performance of gold prices. Data shows that 43% of central banks plan to further increase their gold holdings, while the proportion of dollar reserves continues to decline. In contrast, although Bitcoin is seen as "digital gold," its short-term safe-haven properties remain unstable. Historical data indicates that Bitcoin has a high correlation with the stock market during risk events, but in the long run, it has the logic of hedging against fiat currency depreciation and inflation risks. Gold and Bitcoin can form a complementary relationship: the former provides stable defense, while the latter offers growth flexibility. Investors can layer their allocations based on risk preferences.

Healthy On-Chain Funds: Abundant Stablecoins, Strong Long-Term Holdings

On-chain data shows that the total market value of stablecoins has surpassed $310 billion (data source: CoinMarketCap), with USDT supply rebounding to over $178.2 billion (data source: Tether), indicating ample "ammunition" for off-market funds. Whale funds have shown structural differentiation: some short-term large holders have realized profits at high levels, but the selling pressure from long-term holders has eased, creating an alternating pattern of "old funds exiting, institutions entering." BTC exchange balances have decreased to about 2.1 million coins, with supply continuing to tighten. Meanwhile, on-chain activity has also increased—daily active BTC addresses exceed 730,000, and ETH active addresses are close to 500,000, indicating that market sentiment is recovering.

Options Market Signals: Low Volatility and Cautious Optimism Coexist

The derivatives market is signaling "low volatility, cautious bias." The 30-day implied volatility of BTC and ETH is at a two-year low, indicating limited expectations for short-term fluctuations. The options skew has turned negative, reflecting that investors are increasing downside hedges. The Put/Call ratio has risen to 0.72, partly due to selling cash-secured put strategies—earning premiums in a stable range while positioning for low-level buys. This suggests that the overall market expects a consolidation phase but maintains a bullish outlook.

Accelerating Sector Rotation: RWA and Platform Tokens Lead, MEME Popularity Rebounds

The rise of mainstream cryptocurrencies has driven capital to spread into other sectors. BNB has reached a new high of $1,190, supported by active trading and ecosystem expansion; the RWA (Real World Assets on-chain) sector has surged 260% in market value year-to-date, becoming a focal point for institutions. BlackRock's on-chain treasury bond fund BUIDL has skyrocketed to $2.9 billion, reflecting the accelerated integration of traditional finance and DeFi. The current market is in the mid-stage of a "structural bull market": leading assets are steadily rising, thematic sectors are rapidly rotating, and investors should focus on fundamentals and capital flows rather than short-term sentiment.

Strategy Recommendations: Structured Products for "Both Offense and Defense"

In the phase of oscillating upward trends, Matrixport recommends using structured tools to enhance yield and risk efficiency. Accumulator: accumulate at a discount, suitable for long-term bulls; Decumulator: reduce at a premium, suitable for realizing profits at high levels; FCN fixed-income notes: earn stable coupons in a range-bound market; daily dual-currency products: flexible arbitrage for short-term high returns.

A multi-strategy combination can achieve a configuration logic of "offensive when advancing, defensive when retreating": even in a volatile market, there are interest earnings, and once a breakout occurs, profits can be captured.

Matrixport will continue to monitor changes in the macro environment and market structure, helping investors navigate the new cycle of digital assets steadily.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents the author's personal views only.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.