The fundraising chaos of Stable: Why I missed the FOMO train

Yesterday's Stable crowdfunding was incredibly difficult.

I noticed it as soon as I logged on, but by the time I opened the webpage to recharge, the page was already stuck and wouldn't load at all. I tried several times without success and ultimately had to give up. Besides, the project team never explicitly promised an airdrop, and considering the current market conditions, sometimes holding back isn't necessarily a bad thing.

After that, I quickly researched Stable.

This is an L1 blockchain specifically designed for stablecoins, primarily addressing the high transaction fees and slow speeds associated with stablecoin transactions.

In simple terms, it makes USDT transfers faster and cheaper. The project's popularity is likely due to its strong lineup of supporters. Bitfinex invested $28 million in the seed round and is also an advisor for the project, while Hack VC led this round of financing. Tetherto also participated in the support, and considering that the project's biggest feature is the direct use of USDT as gas (transaction fees), making transactions on the protocol layer not only fast but completely free, Tetherto's support is not surprising.

Yesterday's fundraising was actually the second round, with a total amount of $500 million and a limit of $100,000 per wallet. As far as I know, all the funds were subscribed within less than half an hour. The first round raised a total of $825 million and reportedly sold out in just 10 minutes. Many participants were well-known DeFi projects, including ConcreteXYZ, @fraxfinance, and others.

Insider Games

Perhaps due to the exceptional popularity of the first round of subscriptions, some large investors even bought shares before the announcement was made, which led to strong FOMO (fear of missing out) for the second round of subscriptions. Even though the subscription limit this time was $100,000, most people still couldn't participate, and the final entrants were mainly institutional investors. According to data from the first round, out of the total subscription amount of $825 million, about $600 million (approximately 73%) was deposited by "insiders" before the public announcement.

That's how good projects work. By the time ordinary people have heard about it, the big pie has already been divided up. But to be honest, don't be afraid of missing out on opportunities. Once your money is in, no one knows how long it will be locked up. The project team hasn't made any explicit promises about an airdrop, and it's still unclear whether early exits are possible. The token economic model hasn't even appeared in the white paper yet.

Moving Towards Better Opportunities

If this project fails, we can just move on to the next one. There's no need to chase every seemingly enticing opportunity.

The cryptocurrency space is full of opportunities, and sometimes the best trade is to do nothing. Since there are so many other projects with higher transparency and fairer distribution mechanisms, why lock your funds in a project with unclear terms?

The entire event highlights a broader issue currently present in the cryptocurrency space. Projects with strong institutional support often artificially create scarcity, triggering FOMO among retail investors. But upon closer examination, you'll find that most of the allocations have already been decided behind the scenes. Public offerings are essentially just for show, creating the illusion of community participation, while the real operations were completed months ago.

Don't get me wrong; the Stable project might become a great project. Its technology seems reliable, its supporters are trustworthy, and addressing the cost issues of stablecoin transactions is indeed a real problem worth exploring. However, that doesn't mean you have to forcefully participate in every round of financing at all costs. You have other opportunities to participate, such as through the secondary market, future funding rounds, or directly using the product after its official launch.

The most important lesson here is to maintain discipline. Just because everyone else is rushing in doesn't mean you have to follow suit.

Do your research, understand the relevant terminology, assess the risk-reward ratio, and make decisions based on logic rather than emotion. In a market that operates around the clock with new products emerging constantly, patience is actually your greatest advantage.

Understanding the Real Dynamics

What shocked me most about the Stable event is how perfectly it illustrates the current state of cryptocurrency financing.

We have moved far away from the era when retail investors truly had the opportunity to participate in early projects. Nowadays, everything depends on connections, timing, and frankly, whether you're in the right circle. A $100,000 wallet limit sounds generous, but when institutional investors can deploy multiple wallets and coordinate funding, that limit is almost meaningless.

Moreover, the lack of transparency regarding token distribution and unlocking timelines is concerning. Investing funds without understanding the complete token economic model is essentially blind investing. Admittedly, there are well-known figures behind the project, but that doesn't guarantee favorable terms for later participants. In fact, the opposite is often true. Early supporters and insiders usually secure better conditions, putting later investors at a disadvantage.

The function of USDT as gas fees is indeed innovative and addresses a real pain point in the ecosystem. Currently, transferring stablecoins requires paying gas fees in the native token of the chain you are using, which adds friction and cost. If Stable can simplify this process and achieve zero fees at the protocol level, it would be a significant improvement. However, relying solely on innovation itself is not a reason for blind investment, especially when the entry conditions are unclear and the lock-up period is undefined.

Big Picture

From a broader perspective, we find that this pattern recurs in the launches of several high-profile projects. The project team announces public financing, retail investors rush in, but then we discover that the vast majority of shares have already been allocated to pre-arranged insiders. This may not be out of malice, but it does raise questions about the true meaning of "public" in these contexts. If 73% of the shares were reserved before the announcement, can we still call it public financing?

This dynamic poses challenges for ordinary investors. On one hand, you want to participate in promising projects as early as possible; on the other hand, you often have to compete with mature investors who have better information, faster infrastructure, and more substantial capital. The odds are already slim, and recognizing this is crucial for making informed decisions.

That said, I'm not suggesting we completely abandon early investment opportunities. On the contrary, we need to be more selective and strategic. Wait for those projects that are truly transparent, have fair distribution mechanisms, and clear token economic models. Don't rush into projects with vague terms and opaque distribution processes. Your funds are precious, and using them wisely sometimes means saying "no" to the hottest trends.

Stay happy, stay disciplined, and remember: there will always be another project, another opportunity, another chance. Don't let FOMO dictate your investment decisions. The cryptocurrency space favors patience and careful analysis over impulsive chasing. Be a happy dog, not a anxious one chasing every treat in the yard.