Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.46 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, which is $2.04 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $305.4 billion, decreasing by 0.63% in the last 7 days. Notably, the number of stablecoins has continued to decline for two weeks, with USDT accounting for 60.08%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have decreased while a few have increased, including: ICP with a 7-day increase of 199.52%, FIL with a 7-day increase of 122.46%, DASH with a 7-day increase of 59.5%, AR with a 7-day increase of 132.2%, and ZK with a 7-day increase of 100.94%.

This week, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $1.207 billion; the net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $50.8 million.

Market Forecast (November 10 - November 14):

Currently, the RSI index is at 59.64 (neutral range), and the Fear & Greed Index is at 21 (lower than last week, in the fear range). The Altcoin Season Index is at 39 (lower than last week).

BTC core range: $100,000 - $107,000

ETH core range: $3,100 - $3,800

SOL core range: $152 - $186

Market sentiment: This week, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a dual world of "ice and fire." On one hand, Trump shouts, "I hope to make America a Bitcoin superpower," and "companies like Tether are accumulating at the bottom." On the other hand, there are "ETF net outflows, negative growth in stablecoins, whale sell-offs, and attacks on established DeFi projects." This indicates that we are in a phase of transition between new and old holders. Due to many negatives, the market is in an "extreme fear" sentiment, but the indicators themselves may serve as a contrarian signal, suggesting that the market may have become overly pessimistic and could rebound at any time.

Close attention should be paid to institutional movements: whether the fund flows of Bitcoin ETFs can recover and whether the Solana ETF can maintain strong capital inflows (which saw a single-day inflow of $29 million last week). These are key to assessing institutional confidence.

For conservative investors: Stay patient, as the current market direction is unclear. Keeping sufficient cash is the best strategy.

For aggressive traders: Follow the breakout direction closely, and next week, focus on several key levels. Buy low and sell high within the range, and set timely stop-losses.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On November 2, according to data from fees.pump.fun, Pump.fun spent 7,453.81 SOL (approximately $1.395 million) to repurchase 303.9 million PUMP tokens. Since starting the repurchase on July 15, it has accumulated a repurchase value of approximately $160.8 million in PUMP tokens, reducing the total circulating supply by 10.043%;

2. On November 3, according to Lookonchain monitoring, the stolen funds from the well-known DeFi protocol Balancer have exceeded $116.6 million;

3. On November 3, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated, "The Korean stock index (KOSPI) has reached a historic high, while the trading volume of Korean cryptocurrency exchanges has hit an annual low";

4. On November 3, the Berachain Foundation announced that "validator nodes have coordinated to suspend the operation of the Berachain network to allow the core team to execute an emergency hard fork to address vulnerabilities related to Balancer V2 on BEX. This network suspension is planned, and the network will resume operation shortly";

5. On November 4, after nearly record-breaking time of federal government shutdown, signs of a possible end to the shutdown appeared for the first time in Congress on Monday. Senate Republican and Democratic leaders discussed potential "exit strategies" to resolve the current deadlock;

6. On November 5, the Canadian government officially announced its regulatory plan for stablecoins in its fiscal planning, following the regulatory path of the U.S., requiring issuers to maintain sufficient reserves and adopt prudent risk management measures. The Bank of Canada will allocate CAD 10 million over the next two years starting in the 2026-2027 fiscal year to ensure everything goes smoothly, with an expected annual cost of CAD 5 million to be borne by stablecoin issuers regulated under the Retail Payment Activities Act;

7. On November 6, according to CoinDesk, during the first day of the "U.S. Business Forum" held in Miami, Florida (local time November 5 at 1 PM), Trump called for the U.S. to embrace crypto assets (virtual currencies) and expressed his ambition to pursue leadership in this field. Trump stated: "I hope to make America a Bitcoin superpower";

8. On November 7, according to DefiLlama data, the market cap of the stablecoin USDe issued by Ethena Labs has now fallen to $8.95 billion, down about 45% from its market cap peak of about $16 billion in early October. USDe once seriously depegged from the dollar during the cryptocurrency crash on October 11, dropping to $0.65 on some decentralized exchanges;

9. On November 7, according to HTX market information, Bitcoin fell below $100,000, with a 24-hour decline of 2.8%.

Macroeconomics

1. On November 5, the U.S. ADP employment number for October was 42,000, with an expectation of 28,000;

2. On November 6, the Bank of England maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, in line with market expectations, pausing the quarterly rate cuts that began in August 2024;

3. On November 7, according to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 62.3%.

ETF

According to statistics, from November 3 to November 7, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $1.207 billion; as of November 7, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $24.702 billion, currently holding $17.746 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $82.587 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $139.642 billion.

The net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $50,800.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025 will be held from November 13 to 14, 2025, in Amsterdam, Netherlands;

2. Devconnect will take place from November 17 to 22, 2025, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This important technical event will gather core participants of the Ethereum ecosystem. During the event, Ethereum builders, educators, and protocol teams will promote innovation and development in blockchain technology through practical courses, in-depth technical lectures, and community-led workshops;

3. Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8 to 9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC);

4. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held from December 11 to 13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. Jack Dorsey's payment company Square will officially launch Bitcoin payments on November 10;

2. The Starknet v0.14.1 upgrade will go live on the testnet on November 11 and on the mainnet on November 25.

Important Events

1. On November 9, China will announce the October CPI year-on-year rate;

2. On November 13, the U.S. will announce the October unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate (to be confirmed);

3. On November 13, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending November 8 (in thousands) (to be confirmed).

Token Unlocks

1. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 2.8 billion tokens on November 10, valued at approximately $33.48 million, accounting for 16.44% of the circulating supply;

2. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on November 11, valued at approximately $35.17 million, accounting for 0.69% of the circulating supply;

3. io.net (IO) will unlock 12.18 million tokens on November 11, valued at approximately $3.85 million, accounting for 5.55% of the circulating supply;

4. Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 27.02 million tokens on November 11, valued at approximately $5.7 million, accounting for 9.51% of the circulating supply;

5. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on November 13, valued at approximately $28.19 million, accounting for 0.33% of the circulating supply;

6. Walletconnect Token (WCT) will unlock 124 million tokens on November 15, valued at approximately $14.03 million, accounting for 65.21% of the circulating supply;

7. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on November 15, valued at approximately $14.32 million, accounting for 5.34% of the circulating supply;

8. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on November 16, valued at approximately $25.79 million, accounting for 1.94% of the circulating supply.

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Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also engage with you through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.