VanEck: Bitcoin could rise to $2.9 million by 2050

VanEck has released a new report on the long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin, forecasting strong growth for Bitcoin over the coming decades and outlining how institutional investors might allocate this asset in diversified portfolios. The report, authored by VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, models that under the baseline scenario, Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050.

This prediction implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 15% from current prices. The model assumes that Bitcoin will account for 5-10% of global trade and become a central bank reserve asset, making up 2.5% of their balance sheets. In a conservative scenario (bear market), Bitcoin's annual growth would only be 2%, reaching approximately $130,000 per coin by 2050. In an extremely bullish "super Bitcoinization" scenario, where Bitcoin accounts for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP, it could theoretically reach $53.4 million per coin, corresponding to a 29% CAGR.

The report emphasizes Bitcoin's potential as a strategic, low-correlation asset in institutional portfolios. VanEck recommends that most diversified portfolios allocate 1-3% to Bitcoin. For investors with a higher risk tolerance, historically increasing the allocation to 20% can optimize returns. VanEck believes that Bitcoin is moving beyond its speculative nature, with the potential to become a reserve asset and provide a hedge against currency devaluation risks, especially in developed markets facing high sovereign debt.