prediction

The social decentralized prediction market platform Slips announced the completion of a $3.5 million seed round financing, led by Las Olas Capital and Sunset Bay Capital, with participation from Andrew Schwartzberg, co-owner of the NBA's Charlotte Hornets and Leeds United Football Club.Slips offers AI-generated P2P prediction markets and location-based group activities, allowing users to interact in real-time both online and offline. The new funding will be used to expand its financial services infrastructure, including support for cryptocurrency payments and stablecoin withdrawals.

According to Bloomberg, as Michael Selig takes office as the new chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency is at a critical juncture facing the expansion of regulatory authority over crypto assets and the rapid growth of prediction markets.Currently, over 90% of the trading volume on platforms like Kalshi comes from sports predictions, and the CFTC's stance on limiting prediction markets remains unclear. Selig has previously opposed restrictions on sports betting and will inherit multiple challenges, including court litigation, personnel restructuring, and resource shortages at the regulatory agency. It is expected that the CFTC will increase protections for retail traders in the future and carefully assess policy pathways related to crypto and prediction markets.

Binance Research released the 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook report, which mentions: "Looking ahead to 2026, we are particularly interested in several key themes and expect significant progress in these areas throughout the year. These include topics related to the macro environment and Bitcoin, institutional adoption, policy and regulation, stablecoins, tokenization, decentralized trading, prediction markets, and more."

According to Lookonchain monitoring, two of the three wallets that previously predicted the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro and profited from it have been inactive for 11 consecutive days. The remaining wallet, "SBet365," made a new bet two days ago, predicting that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will step down before January 31.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, trader hai15617 used the same strategy to predict Bitcoin price movements again, earning $44,500. Utilizing this strategy, he made 24 predictions in a single day, with 8 correct, achieving a win rate of 33.33% and a total profit of $136,800.

According to The Block, Noise, a tool for attention markets building a platform for prediction market-related information, announced the completion of a $7.1 million seed round financing, led by Paradigm. Previously, the company also received investment support from Figment Capital, Anagram, as well as GSR, JPEG Trading, and KaitoAI.It is reported that Noise launched its testnet in May last year with a beta version, limited to invited users, attracting over 1,300 users who placed bets in the attention market tracking 14 cryptocurrency topics using social media data provided by Kaito.

Zhao Changpeng stated in a Chinese AMA that the prediction market is a large track in the long term, but the outcome in the short term remains unclear.This track is in its early stages. Taking Polymarket as an example, the platform currently has only one or two capable market makers, and they are focused on the sports events segment. In the future, it faces multiple uncertainties from regulatory bodies in various countries and competitors in the track.

Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante posted on the X platform that Backpack has officially launched its product for entering the prediction market field—Unified Prediction Portfolio, and has initiated a private test limited to invited users.This product employs a cross-margin and cross-collateral mechanism, integrating spot, spot margin, lending, perpetual contracts, prediction markets, as well as crypto and fiat assets into the same sub-account, addressing the issues of long-term fund locking and high opportunity costs in the prediction market.Ferrante stated that this is not a simple encapsulation of existing prediction market platforms, but a brand new system built natively by Backpack, supporting prediction trading, hedging, and various advanced order operations within the same margin account. The current testing phase will focus on validating the risk engine and basic functionalities, with plans to gradually expand features, market scale, and user base in the future.

Golden Globes Official Announcement"Golden Globe Awards season meets Polymarket's prediction season."

According to Forbes, the Ukrainian authorities have restricted access to the prediction platform Polymarket. The National Commission for the State Regulation of Communications and Informatization (НКЕК) has passed the blocking decision based on Resolution No. 695.The reason for the blockage is that the platform does not hold a license recognized by the regulatory body for gambling activities. Polymarket's domain name has been included in the publicly available list of prohibited internet resources. According to this document, electronic communication service providers must restrict access to online resources used for organizing, conducting, or providing unlicensed gambling activities.It is reported that the implementation of this blockage is not uniform; some Ukrainian users have been unable to access the site, while others report that they can still access it without restrictions.As of December 24, approximately 240 bets related to Ukraine have been completed on the platform, with a total amount exceeding $270 million. Additionally, there are 120 active bets with amounts exceeding $140 million.

Gold advocate and economist Peter Schiff tweeted in response to "VanEck analyst predicts Bitcoin price could exceed $2.9 million by 2050," stating, "It's utter nonsense; these people are paid to be bullish on Bitcoin, and their analysis is worthless."

Regarding Tom Lee's public prediction last November that Bitcoin would "rise to $200,000 within 50 days," trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt stated: "I do not trust anyone who is obsessed with their own position. I trust my decision-making process. I have no confidence in any specific trade or opinion."

Cryptanalysis expert defioasis.eth posted on the X platform that the nominal trading volume of the BSC prediction market exceeded $400 million for the third time in a single day, with Opinion accounting for 86.7% of the share. Predict Fun's nominal trading volume reached a record high of $37 million, with daily fee revenue hitting $136,000, setting a new historical record.The positions of the three major BSC prediction markets continue to reach new highs, with a total scale of $150 million, approximately twice the gap from Polymarket and Kalshi. After the end of the Double Festival event, the number of trading users and trading transactions on Opinion experienced a decline, but both have now rebounded from their lows.

According to Crypto.news, Congressman Ritchie Torres (Democrat from New York) and former House Speaker Pelosi have spearheaded legislation aimed at preventing federal officials from betting on prediction markets. The newly announced "2026 Financial Prediction Markets Public Integrity Act" will prohibit federally elected officials, politically appointed officials, executive branch employees, and congressional staff from buying, selling, or exchanging prediction market contracts related to government policies, government actions, or political outcomes, provided they possess or may reasonably obtain significant non-public information through their official positions.