prediction

According to Bloomberg, informed sources revealed that the prediction market Kalshi has raised an additional $200 million from two new investors, Baillie Gifford and Layer Global, expanding the previous $1 billion financing led by Coatue Management, with the company's valuation remaining unchanged at $22 billion.Earlier, Kalshi announced at the beginning of this month the completion of a $1 billion Series F financing led by Coatue Management, with a valuation of $22 billion. Other participants included Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Kalshi's monthly trading volume in April exceeded $14 billion, with an annualized revenue of over $1.5 billion.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seeking public opinion on "prediction market ETFs." The regulator is clearly still weighing this new type of product and hopes to gain more time and feedback. Such products are essentially brand new (somewhat similar to crypto assets), and the regulator needs to ensure a thorough understanding of the risks and mechanisms before "opening the floodgates" to establish sufficient confidence.

According to The Block, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice jointly filed a lawsuit against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and related officials on Tuesday local time, because the state signed the SF 4760 bill, becoming the first in the nation to explicitly and comprehensively ban prediction markets, which will take effect on August 1, 2026.The CFTC argues that prediction markets fall under federally regulated derivatives and "swap" products, and that state governments do not have the authority to criminalize or prohibit them, requesting the court to issue a permanent injunction against the law.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice have sued the state of Minnesota and Governor Tim Walz, opposing the state's newly signed prediction market ban. The new Minnesota law will take effect on August 1, prohibiting users from participating in prediction market trading related to outcomes such as sports, weather, company valuations, and government events. The CFTC stated in the lawsuit that this is the first state-level law in the U.S. that explicitly and comprehensively bans prediction markets. The CFTC and the Department of Justice believe that the relevant products fall under federally regulated derivatives and "swap" contracts, which should be exclusively regulated by the CFTC, and that the state government has no authority to classify them as illegal gambling or to prohibit them. This lawsuit further intensifies the jurisdictional conflict between federal regulators and state gaming regulatory agencies. Previously, the CFTC had sued states like Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut, opposing their attempts to shut down prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

According to Reuters, Polymarket has partnered with Nasdaq to launch a prediction market for private companies, where users can trade based on valuation, IPO timing, and secondary market valuation.

The globally leading cryptocurrency trading platform Gate has completed a significant upgrade to its prediction market, with related features integrated into Gate App v8.19. This upgrade focuses on "smart money" identification and data insights, systematically optimizing the ranking system, event detail pages, and trading processes.The new ranking system introduces user tagging and note mechanisms, supporting refined identification of traders such as "smart money" and "whales," and adds profit and loss curves and historical position displays to enhance strategy reference value. In terms of data analysis, the platform strengthens the presentation of market participation structure and capital behavior, adding modules like "top positions" to help users quickly assess market competition patterns. Additionally, the platform introduces AI analysis and quick trading features to improve decision-making efficiency and execution speed in high-frequency scenarios, further optimizing the trading experience for sports events.Gate's prediction market ecosystem has achieved deep integration with Polymarket and consistently ranks among the top three in Polymarket's cooperative channels. Users can directly access Polymarket through the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage and participate in event trading using their USDT balance.This upgrade systematically enhances Gate's data analysis capabilities and trading execution efficiency in the prediction market. In the future, Gate will continue to expand its product architecture and market ecosystem, promoting the prediction market towards a more professional and efficient direction.

According to WIRED, Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency is using artificial intelligence technology to investigate insider trading in prediction markets such as Polymarket.In the past year, several traders on Polymarket have been suspected of using insider information to bet on geopolitical events such as the Venezuela raid and the Iran war, resulting in significant profits and drawing widespread attention.Previously, a U.S. Special Forces soldier was arrested for allegedly profiting from betting on the Maduro arrest using classified intelligence on Polymarket, becoming the first criminal case of insider trading in a prediction market in the United States.

According to the latest data from Gate's market predictions, the overall market expectation regarding the event of "when will Bitcoin reach $150,000" is relatively cautious. As of June 30, 2026, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 is 1%; by December 31, 2026, this probability rises to 10%. Overall, the market maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the short to medium-term price increase potential of Bitcoin, and funding expectations have not yet formed a consistent breakthrough judgment.As the first CEX platform to connect to Polymarket, Gate consistently ranks among the top three in the Polymarket collaboration channels, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Currently, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participating in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. Gate continues to optimize the prediction market functions and ecosystem, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

The prediction market platform Kalshi announced a partnership with Interactive Brokers.According to the cooperation details, Interactive Brokers has integrated the Kalshi prediction market into its existing trading platform, allowing users to manage prediction market positions and traditional portfolios on the same interface, and supporting real-time viewing of positions, liquidity, and price data.The initially launched prediction markets will mainly cover topics such as election results, climate events, and economic indicators.

According to The Block, staff from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter, substantially exempting prediction market platforms from swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements.The CFTC's Market Oversight Division and Clearing and Risk Division stated that they would not recommend enforcement actions against designated contract markets (DCMs) and clearinghouses for failing to comply with relevant reporting requirements. This move aims to eliminate regulatory uncertainty for event contract platforms.The no-action letter currently covers 19 beneficiary entities, including Polymarket US, Kalshi, Gemini Titan, and Bitnomial.

According to Cointelegraph, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted an amicus brief to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit in support of Kalshi's appeal in its lawsuit against Ohio, arguing that prediction markets should be under the jurisdiction of the CFTC.The CFTC pointed out that Ohio's previous request for Kalshi to cease offering sports event contracts constitutes "jurisdictional overreach." The CFTC stated that if state governments can restrict sports event contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCM), their long-term regulatory authority over event contracts, swaps, and binary options markets could be affected. The outcome of this case will also impact prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

YZi Labs announced the 25 graduation projects of its flagship incubation project EASY Residency for the third season, focusing on areas such as on-chain financial market structure reconstruction, AI agents, tokenization of real-world assets, prediction markets, and privacy compliance. The 25 projects include:Identity and payment infrastructure for AI agents on the BNB chain Bank of AI, litigation workflow legal evidence indexing tool Brief Tech, AI probability output verifiable reasoning platform Cournot, financialized social network and trading platform Dapital, programmable token issuance infrastructure Flap;On-chain marketplace for collectibles and intellectual property assets GEMINT, on-chain options and structured products platform LayerV, CEX-level on-chain liquidity platform LunarBase, multi-market agent capital acquisition platform L7, DeFi unified margin layer Möbius, permissionless margin trading protocol Nemesis;AI agent-driven automated financial decision execution layer Newsliquid, tokenized private market exposure DeFi platform Openstocks, on-chain poker skill game options market PokerFi, prediction market automation and intelligence infrastructure Polysights, physical collectibles RWA liquidity infrastructure Renaiss;Fixed-rate decentralized lending platform TermMax, compliance-oriented digital asset privacy infrastructure 0xBow, AI agent workflow self-custody authorization layer Functor, interest-free stablecoin new bank for the Muslim market Isaac, on-chain prime brokerage platform for the BNB chain MARGIN X;Frictionless stablecoin exchange N-dimensional AMM Orbswap, compliance-oriented cross-chain privacy exchange protocol SilentSwap, crypto market AI agent trading and automation infrastructure Taco AI, on-chain event-driven derivatives platform Vibe.fun.

Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the regulatory agency is communicating with all major professional sports leagues in the United States to strengthen the regulatory framework for sports-related prediction markets and to prevent insider trading and market manipulation risks.Michael Selig revealed at the FINRA annual meeting in Washington that the CFTC had previously signed a memorandum of understanding for information sharing with Major League Baseball, marking its first formal data collaboration mechanism with a professional sports league.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that the overall market expectation for the "WTI Crude Oil May Price" related prediction event remains strong. Among them, the probability of WTI crude oil prices exceeding $110 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $105 is 67%, and the probability of exceeding $100 is as high as 94%. Overall, the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the short-term trend of oil prices, with funding expectations continuously leaning towards an upward direction.Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to lead, currently securing a spot in the top three, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and engagement depth of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.In addition, Gate will launch the "Polymarket 100 USDT Battle God Challenge" social media event from May 11, 15:00 to May 20, 15:00 (UTC+8), where users can participate in prediction market trading with a maximum of 100 USDT and compete for the earnings leaderboard and quality content creator rewards by sharing profit reports, trading strategies, and review content. The total prize pool of the event includes 66 content reward slots and a 1,000 USDT Battle God earnings prize pool.