prediction

According to The Block, at a meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee, CME CEO Terrence Duffy had a heated exchange with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara regarding regulatory issues in the prediction market. Duffy pointed out that some prediction market contracts are susceptible to manipulation, specifically mentioning contracts related to Trump's State of the Union address and the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro that may be subject to manipulation. Selig interrupted, stating that these products are not listed in the United States, "this is fake news."Duffy retorted, "We can argue, I'm happy to." The two also clashed over a question from Kalshi COO about whether CME faces market manipulation issues, with Duffy stating, "I have more staff in my regulatory department than you and your entire company," to which Lopes Lara responded, "Maybe you should learn about efficiency," and Duffy shot back, "Maybe you should learn what a credible market is." This conflict comes at a time when federal and state regulators are vying for control over the regulation of prediction markets, with the CFTC having filed lawsuits against several states and proposed a regulatory framework draft.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "NATO and Russia Military Conflict Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "October 31" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 43% an hour ago to the current 23.5% (a fluctuation of 19.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Bitcoin August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "70,000 USD" has experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 48.5% an hour ago to the current 69.5% (a fluctuation of 21%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Ethereum August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Below $2,200" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 71.5% (a fluctuation of 21.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Bitcoin Price Prediction from August 17-23" on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Above $74,000" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 8.55% an hour ago to the current 46.25% (a fluctuation of 37.7%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Ethereum August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "2,000 USD" has experienced a sharp fluctuation, dropping from 36.5% an hour ago to the current 21.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Bitcoin August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "72,500 USD" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 48.55% an hour ago to the current 71.95% (a fluctuation of 23.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Bitcoin August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Below $67,500" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 69.5% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 19.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Blockchain infrastructure Linera announced that with the sale of $LNRA, it will showcase Linera Originals, a badge system, and a featured marketplace that can open, operate, and settle within a minute. Linera stated that becoming "the next Hyperliquid" means dedicated chains, a focus on consumer-grade products, small teams, real revenue, and user priority, rather than simple replication. Its goal is to predict markets in real-time, a segment that currently has no incumbents, as general-purpose chains struggle to support it.Linera adopts a parallel micro-chain architecture, validated by the same set of validators, with users and markets operating on independent micro-chains. Most blocks are ultimately confirmed in under a second, and throughput can be expanded by increasing micro-chains. This design is derived from research by the CEO, a former Meta (Libra/Diem) researcher, and inherits low-latency settlement work such as FastPay. The application app.linera.xyz has been launched on this architecture, with all predictions being on-chain transactions, and badges measuring real participation.The platform's marketplace is purely player versus player (PvP), with a shared fund pool distributed to the winning side, no house or market makers, and results relying on verifiable price oracles. The core team consists of about five people. $LNRA is the network token, and complete sales details will be announced in another document; badge holders can gain access to exclusive pools during sales by using the product.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Ethereum August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Breakthrough $2,500" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 16.9% an hour ago to the current 33.05% (a fluctuation of 16.15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Above $72,500" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation, soaring from 11.95% an hour ago to the current 34.55% (a fluctuation of 22.6%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Cantor Fitzgerald plans to open the Kalshi prediction market to its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including family offices and hedge funds, allowing them to trade event contracts related to weather, commodities, and corporate performance. Susquehanna International Group will provide quotes and liquidity for the related trades.Cantor will act as a broker, buying and selling large event contracts for clients and may distribute related positions to other investors through private negotiations. Cantor Co-CEO Pascal Bandelier stated that hedge funds have expressed interest in trading event contracts linked to iPhone sales, rather than indirectly betting on volume changes through Apple's stock price; family offices are focused on using contracts related to weather, crop yields, and oil prices for risk hedging.Joe Grubb, Head of Business Development at Susquehanna Predictions, mentioned that AI supply chain risks and computing power prices could also become application scenarios for the prediction market. Institutional clients can also propose new market themes based on their needs, and the relevant companies have discussed the types of contracts they hope to launch with investors.Kalshi has been intensifying its efforts to expand institutional clients in recent months, having completed its first large transaction this year and reached a partnership with Interactive Brokers. Max Crowley, Vice President of Business Development at Kalshi, stated that there is already a demand from institutions for hedging specific event risks.

According to Forbes, blockchain pioneers Scott Stornetta and Stuart Haber have joined the prediction market platform SafeBets as advisors. The platform allows users to make predictions without investing real money, using free points instead, with correct predictions earning Unicoin token rewards. SafeBets positions its business as "market research" rather than betting, distinguishing itself from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi, which face legal risks.SafeBets Executive Director J. Tennyson Singer stated that the platform's long-term plan is to monetize users' collective prediction data by providing trading signals to affiliated brokerage firms, and it has already attracted thousands of participants for the World Cup events, with plans to expand into political prediction areas such as the U.S. elections.According to Unicoin Inc.'s quarterly report submitted to the SEC, SafeBets is wholly owned by Unicoin CEO Alex Konanykhin. Unicoin has been facing an SEC lawsuit since May 2025, accused of inflating fundraising amounts in token sales and falsely advertising its "SEC registered" status. Unicoin claims that the allegations are "baseless" and will actively defend itself. The Unicoin tokens awarded to users come from this litigated entity. Unicoin is currently conducting equity financing at a price of 25 cents per share, targeting $20 million.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin August Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "65,000 USD" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 56.5% an hour ago to the current 84% (a fluctuation of 27.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has recently shown unusually calm performance, achieving an annualized volatility of about 42% on the 30th, narrowing the gap with the S&P 500's 18% to the narrowest level on record. After narratives related to Trump and corporate treasury buying, the market has entered a prolonged compression range. Edmond Goh, Global Trading Head at B2C2, stated that retail funds are shifting towards AI stocks, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets; TradFi high-frequency trading and risk models are improving efficiency, with open interest nearing historical lows, further suppressing volatility.Shiliang Tang, Partner at Monarq Asset Management, mentioned that Bitcoin is in a price stalemate, with upward pressure from corporate treasury sell-offs (such as Strategy, MARA) and limited downward movement due to speculative leverage clearing and net accumulation in long-term wallets. Strategy has sold about 7,000 BTC by 2026. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that institutional ETFs and DAT are driving market maturity, while clarity in U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act) is still pending, and low volatility has led to a decrease in trading volume.Greg Cipolaro from NYDIG stated that short-term traders are chasing 5x or 10x returns, with target options expanding to Nvidia, gold, perpetual stock contracts, 0DTE options, or sports event contracts. Retail in South Korea is shifting from crypto to domestic AI-related stocks, with Upbit and Bithumb's trading volume significantly dropping year-on-year. Trading in traditional asset perpetuals on crypto platforms and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has seen a significant increase.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" event on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "120-139" has experienced drastic fluctuations in winning probability, plummeting from 27.55% an hour ago to the current 11.4% (a fluctuation of 16.15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Elon Musk Tweet Prediction from August 11 to August 18, 2026" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "160-179" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 54.5% an hour ago to the current 69.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CNBC, sources reveal that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is conducting an internal review of the "mention markets" on prediction platforms. These markets allow traders to predict whether specific words will appear in scenarios such as speeches, company earnings call meetings, or television programs.Sources indicate that the CFTC notified Kalshi about the review a few weeks ago, after which Kalshi removed the mention markets related to sports from the platform. It is still unclear whether this review is only targeting sports-related contracts or if it covers all types of mention markets.