BIT Research: Five Major Signals Light Up Simultaneously, Has the Bitcoin Bear Market Ended?

The current market is at a critical turning point. Multiple independent technical indicators are gradually pointing to the same conclusion: the Bitcoin bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end, or may have already ended. Unlike the long and repeatedly bottoming bear market of 2022, this cycle has shown significant changes in market structure. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the phased alleviation of regulatory uncertainties have created an environment lacking "passive excessive sell-offs" during the price decline. At the same time, historical experience shows that Bitcoin rarely enters a unilateral rise without experiencing fluctuations; it is more likely to be in a "consolidation phase after bottom confirmation" currently.

In this context, the reference significance of a single indicator is limited, but when multiple signals begin to appear simultaneously, the conclusions they point to are becoming clearer: the market is transitioning from a downward trend to a phase of turning point confirmation.

Concentration of Technical Signals: From Bottom Formation to Trend Repair

From a technical structure perspective, the core change in this market cycle is "signal resonance." First, the weekly stochastic indicator has returned above 20, a pattern that typically appears after the worst phase of the market, historically corresponding more to bottom formation rather than a continuation of decline. Meanwhile, new trend signals have re-emerged, triggering again after failing to materialize in the previous two instances, significantly enhancing their reference value.

Secondly, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average (approximately $77,592), a level that has long been regarded as an important reference line for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. The current price is fluctuating around $75,000, and regaining this range is more likely to be a matter of time. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, it will constitute a clear trend confirmation signal.

Additionally, there is a possibility that the monthly RSI may return above the average. Historically, this signal often appears near the bottom of bear markets. If it occurs again this time, it will further strengthen the judgment that the market has completed bottom construction. Overall, these indicators have limited significance when appearing individually, but when they concentrate within the same time window, the market state has shifted from "continuation of the downward trend" to "bottom structure gradually established."

Confirmation of Key Price Range: From Consolidation Repair to Upward Preparation

Beyond technical indicators, the price itself remains the most critical verification variable. The current market is testing the key range of $66,000 to $73,000. The high of approximately $73,084 in March 2024 has formed a mid-term top structure. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize within this range, it will mean that the previous downward trend has been substantially reversed.

Structurally, the current trend bears some similarity to a year ago: the market quickly dipped under external shocks, then entered a narrow range of fluctuations, ultimately completing a trend switch through an upward breakout. The price has begun to test the upper edge of the range; if this rhythm continues, reaching $88,000 or even higher in the short term is not considered aggressive. Meanwhile, the lower level of $64,972 has become an important support level at this stage. As long as the price remains above this level, the overall trend will gradually shift from neutral to bullish. Therefore, rather than judging whether the market has "entered a bull market," the more critical question is whether the price can complete a range breakout to confirm the trend switch.

Currently, the market has five signals gradually pointing in the same direction: the weekly stochastic indicator is strengthening, trend signals have re-emerged, the price is approaching the 21-week moving average, the monthly RSI has confirmation potential, and the previous downward trend has been effectively broken. A single signal is still insufficient for a conclusion, but when these signals appear concentrated in the same phase, the credibility of the conclusions they point to significantly increases. Overall, this bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end.

For the market, the focus is also shifting: the question is no longer whether Bitcoin will continue to recover, but how the speed and space of the upward movement will unfold once the trend truly switches. In this process, the breakthrough of price ranges and changes in the liquidity environment will become the most critical observation variables for the next stage.

The above opinions are partly derived from BIT on Target. Contact us for the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.