Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran negotiations show renewed differences, oil prices surge again; Google discusses developing new chips with Maywell (April 20, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Warsh Faces Key Senate Test

In the absence of new escalations in the Iran situation, the main focus in the U.S. will shift to Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing. This hearing, originally delayed due to "document issues," is now scheduled for April 21 (Tuesday).

However, a larger obstacle than the document issue may hinder Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh needs the support of all Republican senators on the committee to pass, but Republican Senator Thom Tillis continues to threaten to block Warsh's appointment unless the Justice Department ends its investigation into current Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the White House abandons legal action to fire Powell.

Given that Trump is unlikely to accept these conditions, the nomination process may become stalled, with only one month remaining until Powell's term ends, bringing new uncertainty to the market. (Financial界)

International Commodities

U.S.-Iran Negotiation Discrepancies Worsen, Oil Prices Surge Again Over the Weekend

• Over the weekend, Trump repeatedly stated that the U.S. had proposed a "fair and reasonable" agreement, announcing that the delegation arrived in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th to start the second round of face-to-face negotiations, while warning that if no agreement was reached by the 22nd, Iran's power plants and bridges would be destroyed, and the port blockade would continue; Iranian media clarified exclusively that "the news of the second round of negotiations is not true," emphasizing that they refuse to resume talks as long as the maritime blockade exists, with core discrepancies still focused on the handling of enriched uranium, the suspension of nuclear activities, and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• With the ceasefire agreement expiring on April 22, the situation is full of uncertainty.
• Analysts believe that the market's optimism for peace last Friday was extinguished by the discrepancies over the weekend, and traders are preparing for volatility when the market opens on Monday, with short-term oil prices likely to rebound under geopolitical uncertainty.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. Customs Launches Large-Scale Tariff Refunds on April 20

• The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has completed the first phase of development for a new customs declaration system and officially launched the tariff refund process on the 20th, with tariffs previously imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act being refunded in phases.
• The background is the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in February and the International Trade Court's ruling in March, which determined that the law did not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs.
• This move brings substantial benefits to importers, likely alleviating previous tariff pressures and boosting confidence in related trade sectors.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Down 1.01% to around $4781/ounce.
• Spot Silver: Down 1.69%, reported at about $79.45/ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Surged 6.87% to $88.23, with renewed discrepancies in U.S.-Iran negotiations driving oil prices up again over the weekend.
• Brent Crude Oil: Movement highly consistent with WTI, surged to $95.75.
• U.S. Dollar Index: Slightly up 0.21%, closing around 98.33, with risk appetite warming and geopolitical factors jointly suppressing.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 1.75% in 24H, reported at about $74335.
• ETH: Down 2.83% to $22823 in 24H.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Slightly down 2.3% in 24H, reported at $2.58 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $415 million in 24H, with long positions liquidated at about $337 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: A large number of short positions are still concentrated above 75k--77k; if the price breaks above the current range, it may trigger a continuous short squeeze. Long positions below are basically cleared with no significant replenishment, and short-term declines lack liquidation drivers, with the overall structure leaning towards the upside.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: As of last Friday's close, BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $664 million; ETH spot ETF net inflow was about $127 million.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: BTC saw inflow of $1.593 billion yesterday, outflow of $1.698 billion, with a net outflow of $104 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

As of last Friday's close:

• Dow Jones: Up 1.79% to 49447.43 points, continuing strong performance, with small-cap Russell 2000 also hitting a historic high.
• S&P 500: Up 1.2% to 7126.06 points, continuing to set historic highs.
• NASDAQ: Up 1.52% to 24468.48 points, setting a record for 13 consecutive gains (tying the longest since 1992), with sector-driven growth mainly from technology.

Tech Giants Dynamics

As of last Friday's close:

• Apple (AAPL): Up 2.59%, closing price around $270.23, boosted by AI and consumer recovery expectations.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 0.34%, closing price around $250.56, with stable growth in cloud computing business.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Up 1.68%, closing price around $341.68, benefiting from news of chip supply chain diversification.
• Meta (META): Up 1.73%, closing price around $688.55, with synergy in advertising and AI business.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Up 0.6%, closing price around $422.80, with robust demand for cloud services.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Up 1.68%, closing price around $201.68, with sustained high demand for AI computing power.
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 3.01%, closing price around $400.41, with progress in Robotaxi and other developments attracting attention. Core Reason Summary: The Magnificent 7 has rebounded over 20% since the March low, recovering about $4 trillion in market value, with valuation repair combined with warming expectations for AI commercialization driving the "catch-up rally" in tech stocks.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/AI Chip Sector Up over 2%

• Representative Stocks: NVIDIA (NVDA) +1.68%, Broadcom (AVGO) +2.03%, TSMC (TSM) +1.97%.
• Driving Factors: Google and Marvell Technology are discussing the development of two new AI chips (custom TPU and inference chip), accelerating the trend of supply chain diversification and alleviating dependence on a single supplier.

Fiber/PCB Sector Shows Prominent Gains

• Representative Stocks: Shenghong Technology (today's dark trading begins).
• Driving Factors: Domestic fiber prices have skyrocketed 650% compared to the same period last year, with orders from leading companies extending to the first quarter of next year, and supply-side bottlenecks in preform rods leading to high prosperity potentially continuing until the end of 2027.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Alphabet (GOOGL) - Discussing Development of Two New Chips with Marvell Technology

Event Overview: Google is in deep discussions with Marvell Technology, planning to jointly develop two custom AI chips, including a memory processing unit (to be used with Google's existing TPU) and a new type of TPU, aiming to complete design and enter trial production as early as next year. Previously, Google has been pushing TPU as an alternative to NVIDIA GPUs, and this collaboration aims to further reduce dependence on NVIDIA and Broadcom, accelerating the diversification of the AI infrastructure supply chain, with the backdrop being that TPU sales have become a core growth engine in Google Cloud revenue. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that this move will not only significantly optimize Google Cloud's cost structure but also strengthen its long-term competitive advantage in AI computing power; in the short term, the signal of supply chain diversification has boosted confidence in the entire AI hardware sector, with several investment banks raising Google’s target price, emphasizing that this collaboration marks a key step for tech giants transitioning from "dependence on a single supplier" to "self-controlled ecosystems." Investment Insight: With long-term demand for AI computing power remaining strong, supply chain diversification is becoming a core competitiveness for tech giants, and investors should focus on opportunities in the upstream and downstream of related industries, capturing structural dividends brought by the independent innovation of leading companies like Google.

2. Anthropic - Launches Claude Design AI Creative Tool

Event Overview: Anthropic officially launched the experimental design tool Claude Design on Friday, powered by the latest flagship model Claude Opus 4.7, designed for users without a design background, allowing users to generate visual works, product prototypes, and presentations simply through natural language prompts. This tool aims to quickly materialize abstract ideas, marking further penetration of AI from text/code generation into the multimodal design field. Market Interpretation: Institutions are optimistic that AI tools will significantly lower the barriers to creation, accelerating AI's penetration in design, product development, and office scenarios; several investment banks pointed out that such tools not only expand the boundaries of AI applications but may also reshape the downstream creative industry ecosystem, benefiting Anthropic's valuation and ecological partners in the short term. Investment Insight: As AI application scenarios continue to broaden, downstream tooling products are driving ecological expansion, suggesting attention to opportunities brought by the increase in industry penetration from the implementation of AI multimodal tools.

3. MicroStrategy (MSTR) - Bitcoin Holdings Surge in Value Driving Stock Price Up

Event Overview: As the world's largest holder of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy's stock price surged about 12% on Friday, continuing to maintain strength today alongside a 2.6% rise in BTC, with the company's Bitcoin reserve strategy remaining a market focus. Earlier in April, the company increased its Bitcoin holdings through stock sales, with total holdings reaching about 780,000 coins at an average cost of about $75,600 per coin, and the latest Bitcoin gains further boosting its asset value. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view MSTR as a leveraged investment tool for Bitcoin, with analysts recently intensively raising target prices, recognizing its unique positioning in the crypto bull market; as Bitcoin ETF funds continue to flow in and corporate reserve strategies become widespread, MSTR's "Bitcoin standard" framework is gaining more recognition, with the valuation center expected to rise in sync with BTC prices and holding scales. Investment Insight: Bitcoin concept stocks are highly correlated with mainstream crypto assets, and MSTR is expected to continue providing excess return opportunities while BTC remains volatile at high levels, making it a potential amplifier for investors' exposure to the crypto market.

4. SanDisk (SNDK) - Successfully Joins Nasdaq 100 Index

Event Overview: SanDisk (SNDK.US) was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index before the market opened on April 20, replacing Atlassian and becoming a component stock, which will directly attract a large inflow of passive index funds and ETFs, driving strong stock performance. Market Interpretation: Index component adjustments usually bring significant capital effects, and institutions believe this inclusion will significantly enhance stock liquidity and valuation center; combined with strong AI-driven storage demand, investment banks such as Citigroup and Jefferies have raised target prices to the $980-$1000 range, emphasizing the long-term pull of AI servers on high-bandwidth storage. Investment Insight: The status as a Nasdaq 100 component stock provides a short-term catalyst, suggesting attention to the continued support of stock prices from subsequent passive fund inflows, especially during the AI computing expansion cycle.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. On-chain analysts analyze that the rsETH incident may have a more severe impact on Aave than expected. Since the incident occurred early yesterday morning, funds on Aave have continued to flow out, with total deposits dropping from $45.8 billion to $35.7 billion, a total outflow of $10.1 billion, of which $4.5 billion was stablecoins. This has also kept Aave's stablecoin deposit rate at 13.4% for an entire day. Previously, it was reported that the rsETH cross-chain bridge under Kelp DAO was attacked.

2. According to Cointelegraph, influenced by the renewed tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin prices have fallen back to around $75,000. The market is worried about the escalation of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, bringing the risk of rising oil prices back into focus, significantly increasing macro uncertainty. Data shows that Bitcoin previously touched a nearly ten-week high of $78,400 but then faced downward pressure. Market analysis suggests that geopolitical events and oil price fluctuations are dominating short-term changes in risk appetite.

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market saw a liquidation scale of about $260 million, with long positions facing significant pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been continuously blocked near a key technical level—the 21-week moving average—facing short-term correction pressure. Market participants point out that in a highly sensitive emotional context, any sudden news could quickly reverse market direction, with short-term volatility potentially further intensifying.

3. Nomura Securities released the latest survey showing that institutional investors' interest in crypto assets continues to rise, with 65% of respondents viewing them as a tool for portfolio diversification. This survey covered over 500 investment professionals in Japan.

4. Tokens such as ZRO, H, and XPL will see large unlocks this week, with ZRO unlocking worth about $40.4 million.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• U.S.-Iran Second Round Negotiations: The delegation arrived in Islamabad on the evening of April 20, focusing on the handling of enriched uranium and control of the Strait, with the 22nd being a critical window period.

Institutional Views:

Several investment bank analysts pointed out that the discrepancies in U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend put the market rebound established on "peace hopes" last Friday under pressure for correction, with short-term uncertainty in oil prices supporting commodity prices, but the "catch-up" logic for tech stocks remains solid—Mag 7 has recovered $4 trillion in market value, with AI commercialization expectations combined with a profit growth rate of 19%, institutions continue to be optimistic about the tech sector. Under pressure on the dollar index, gold and silver remain at high levels, with short-term corrections in crypto assets, showing some divergence from risk assets, but BTC/ETH ETF fund inflows remain strong. Overall, geopolitical risks and AI themes will become the main line of the market this week, suggesting investors pay attention to the impact of negotiation progress on volatility while laying out technology and AI-related targets for supply chain diversification.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.