Tom Lee's 2026 investment core logic: Companies selling scarce assets are crushing the market

Original Title: Tom Lee 2026 Investment Core Logic: "Companies Selling Scarce Assets Are Crushing the Market"

Original Author: Chris Lee

One of Wall Street's most accurate bulls, Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat and manager of Granny Shots fund, recently stated that the only core investment keyword for the market in 2026 is "scarcity." He bluntly said, "Companies selling scarce assets are crushing the market." This seemingly simple statement contains a complete stock selection logic, macro judgment, and a profound bet on Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical issues.

I. Core Definition and Logic of Scarce Assets

The "scarce assets" defined by Tom Lee are not traditional scarce items like gold or collectibles, but rather products or services with severely limited supply and explosive growth in demand. This structural mismatch between supply and demand gives sellers strong pricing power, driving excess returns.

He highlighted three major directions of scarcity:

1. AI Computing Power: Companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel. Training and inference of AI large models require massive GPUs and accelerated chips, but the capacity expansion of TSMC's advanced processes and CoWoS packaging faces physical limits. According to relevant reports, the tight supply chain for AI chips is expected to last at least until the end of 2026.

2. AI Memory (HBM High Bandwidth Memory): Manufacturers like Micron and SanDisk. HBM is a critical bottleneck in AI servers, with complex manufacturing processes and slow yield improvements, and capacity has been fully booked by giants like NVIDIA.

3. Energy Infrastructure: Companies like GE Vernova (GEV). The power demand of data centers is exploding, with North American data center electricity consumption expected to account for 9-10% of total power generation by 2030 (only 3-4% in 2025). The delivery cycle for large equipment like gas turbines and transformers can take 2-3 years, making capacity expansion extremely slow.

The logic chain: The demand brought by the AI revolution is explosive, while the physical, technological, and time constraints on the supply side cannot be quickly matched. This supply-demand imbalance is not a short-term phenomenon but a structural opportunity that will last through 2026. Because of this, these companies have high gross margins and strong pricing power, with performance and stock price performance far exceeding the market average. This is also the core strategy of the Granny Shots fund - focusing on "companies selling scarce things," with AUM exceeding $4 billion, and funds are voting with their feet.

II. Macroeconomic Background and Practical Trading Framework

Tom Lee emphasized that the current market is in a "fog of war," with ongoing geopolitical risks. However, he observed that oil prices seem to have peaked and provided a clear trading framework: when oil prices fall, one should buy assets negatively correlated with oil prices, including the S&P 500, Ethereum, and Mag7 (Magnificent 7).

The logic is: falling oil prices → reduced inflation pressure → rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts → growth stocks and risk assets benefit. War may push oil prices up, but a peak and fall in oil prices can become a positive signal for buying growth stocks. This provides investors with a practical guide for reverse operations in an uncertain environment.

III. Strong Earnings Reports and Market Outlook for the Year

This quarter's earnings season has performed exceptionally well: among the companies that have reported, 87% exceeded expectations, with an average exceeding rate of 19%. Tom Lee pointed out that this is already "emerging market-level" profit growth, but it is happening in the United States, with the core driving force being the productivity revolution brought by AI.

Market path judgment:

The S&P 500 has reached the predicted 7,300 points at the beginning of the year, but now is not the time to sell.

A "bear market-like" pullback may occur mid-year, driven by the market testing the new Federal Reserve chair or prolonged geopolitical conflicts.

After the pullback, a rebound will follow, with the annual target at least revised up to 7,700 points, maintaining an overall bullish outlook.

He particularly reminded: Mag7, cryptocurrencies, and the software sector have already experienced a bear market-like phase, and investors do not need to chase high at 7,300 points, nor panic during pullbacks - pullbacks are a good opportunity to increase positions in scarce assets.

IV. Thematic Ranking and Real-World Insights

Tom Lee ranked investment themes as follows:

1. Global Labor Scarcity + AI (First Priority): Aging populations are driving up labor costs, and companies must replace labor with AI and automation, which is a structural trend over the next decade.

2. Cybersecurity + Energy Security (Second Priority): Geopolitical tensions are prompting countries to increase investments in related infrastructure.

3. Seasonal Factors.

The performance of Granny stocks over the week also validated this framework: the top gainers Qantas, Google, Caterpillar, Tesla, and AMD all align with the scarcity logic; while some short-term pullbacks (like GE Vernova and Sofi) are mainly due to guidance not meeting the market's high expectations, which is a normal fluctuation and does not change the long-term trend.

Conclusion: The Investment Code for 2026 is "Scarcity"

Tom Lee's complete logic chain is clear and powerful: AI-driven structural demand + supply constraints = pricing power and excess returns of scarce assets. In the face of macro uncertainty, a peak in oil prices signals growth stocks, and a mid-year pullback is an opportunity to increase positions, with the S&P 500 likely challenging 7,700 points for the year.

For investors, the real insight is not simply chasing gains, but shifting thinking: from "what is rising" to "why is it rising." Only by capturing companies with constrained supply and explosive demand can one achieve sustained excess returns in 2026. Scarcity is not a concept, but a tangible hard constraint of supply and demand ------ this is the most important investment framework that Tom Lee leaves for the market.