Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: MARA Holdings Q1 disclosed after the market today, the narrative of mining companies' AI transformation receives its first financial validation amid the recovery of BTC prices

1. Q1 Challenges: The Dual Pressure of Hashrate Cost Line and BTC Price

MARA Holdings will hold a conference call for its earnings report today (May 11) at 5:00 PM ET; analyst consensus expects Q1 revenue of approximately $184.2 million and EPS of approximately -$2.34. During Q1 2026, the price of Bitcoin fell from about $87,000 to about $68,000, a decline of approximately 22%; according to the company's 2025 proxy statement, the electricity cost at its own sites is about $0.04/kWh, but the full cost, including depreciation, management fees, and debt costs, remains in the range of $60,000 to $70,000 per coin, indicating that during the low price period in Q1, BTC was close to or reached the breakeven line. By the end of 2025, the company held 53,822 BTC, with an annual hashrate of 66.4 EH/s and annual revenue of $907 million (up 38% year-on-year). The two core observations from today's earnings report: first, how much BTC the company sold during Q1 (if a large amount is sold, it will reflect liquidity pressure); second, whether the non-mining revenue from HPC/AI data centers can show a meaningful increase for the first time.

2. Starwood JV and Long Ridge Acquisition: The Rhythm of AI Transformation Assets

MARA announced on April 30 that it had signed a definitive agreement to acquire the Long Ridge Energy & Power facility, further strengthening its digital infrastructure strategy; the previously announced Starwood joint venture (JV) recently targets HPC/AI data center capacity exceeding 1 gigawatt, with a long-term path pointing to 2.5 gigawatts. The market will look for: the leasing progress of the Starwood JV (whether the first HPC lease has been signed), the integration timeline for the Long Ridge acquisition, and whether the company will provide quantitative guidance for AI data center revenue in 2026. Referencing the precedents of Galaxy Digital ($GLXY) and TeraWulf ($WULF), the first confirmation of AI data center revenue is often a key trigger for the market to reprice mining company stocks—shifting from a "Bitcoin price Beta" to a valuation logic of "composite infrastructure companies with AI contract revenue" will bring about a completely different earnings multiple framework.

3. Structural Differentiation in the Mining Sector: Horizontal Comparison of Q1 Earnings Season

Today's MARA earnings report is the last major disclosure in the mining sector's Q1 earnings season, with ample horizontal comparisons available: Strategy, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MSTR) reported a net loss of $12.54 billion in Q1 (mainly due to non-cash unrealized losses on BTC, with approximately 89,600 coins purchased during the period); Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: $RIOT) reported Q1 revenue of $167.2 million (including HPC hosting revenue of $33.2 million), with AMD exercising an additional 25 megawatts, bringing total HPC contract capacity to 50 megawatts of IT critical load; Galaxy Digital, Inc. (NASDAQ: $GLXY) reported a net loss of $216 million in Q1 but adjusted EBITDA for Q2 has rebounded to approximately $90 million; CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ: $CLSK) had an average hashrate of 47.3 EH/s in March, holding 13,561 BTC. MARA holds the most BTC (53,822 coins) among these companies, has the largest AI transformation agreement (1 gigawatt JV), and has the largest annual revenue scale, making its Q1 performance the most complete sample for the dual pressure test of "BTC price decline + AI transformation switch."

Today is the Dual Intersection of Earnings Season and CLARITY Act Window

Today, Circle and MARA released their earnings reports on the same day, forming the most critical single-day node for the valuation path of cryptocurrency concept stocks in H1 2026. If Circle's Q1 USDC reserve income exceeds expectations (with USDC supply continuing to expand providing underlying support), it will provide fundamental backing for the stablecoin sector while becoming an industry data argument before the CLARITY Act Senate markup; if MARA's conference call discloses AI data center contract signings for the first time, it will trigger a valuation reconstruction of the mining sector from "mining cost line" to "AI contract revenue." The specific date for the CLARITY Act markup in May has not yet been confirmed, but Senator Lummis previously committed to completing it "within May." If it lands after today's dual earnings reports, it will constitute a triple catalyst resonance—fundamentals, regulatory certainty, and macro liquidity (with BTC maintaining above $80,000) improving simultaneously, and the pricing of cryptocurrency concept stocks for Q2 will be largely formed within this week.

Data source: https://bbx.com/ Cryptocurrency concept stock information database, compiled based on global listed company announcements and SEC/TSE disclosure documents from yesterday.